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Time for the System Programmers to review, and hopefully modify, their dealing algorithm. Over the past 9 weeks I have become frustrated with the monotonous,unfair distribution of trumps, repeatedly 4 -0 or 5-0 breaks making the contract impossible to make, despite having 26 -29 HCP. Between dumy and declarer there are 8 or 9 trumps but the contract is impossible to make .
I have been playing Bridge competitively for over 40 years and I have never experienced this type of trump distribution over such a continuous period of time. Occasionally bad distribution as mentioned above can be a challenge, but the current situation is beciming quite boring t the point of expecting it each time a game in a suit has been bid correctly.
Comments from other players are welcome.
Minitinous Trump Break Playing cintracts
#2
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Posted 2019-August-05, 03:01
It would help if you were to provide actual numbers. What I will say though it that people in real life are terrible at shuffling and so computer dealt hands will often appear to be more distributional than normal.
Wayne Somerville
#3
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Posted 2019-August-05, 06:21
I have to say playing with the robots I do feel at times that things aren't random, and cards are programmed to split badly/finesses to fail etc. sometimes u have hand after hand with 5-0 splits and three finesses failing every hand and after a while it can get quite tiresome!!
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
#4
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Posted 2019-August-05, 09:25
Every few months someone complains that our dealing algorithm is unfair. And every time, I explain that we've analyzed them and not found any deviation from the expected randomness. We also had the author of BigDeal, generally considered the authority on random dealing, analyze our data, and he said it was OK.
#5
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Posted 2019-August-05, 10:11
The only time this comes up for me, is when I am practicing with my partner and I am fixing specific parameters for our hands. I notice the other hands tend to be statistically skewed in generating extreme breaks. When we put no constraints on, however, things look fine.
#6
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Posted 2019-August-05, 14:24
You must be just a general BBO member/player. Bad breaks and offside honors are skewed to the run of the mill players. If you have a Platinum Executive membership, finesses work at least 75% of the time, and you never get contract breaking bad breaks unless you are late with your monthly dues.
#7
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Posted 2019-August-05, 16:00
A 4-0 trump break should happen once every 10 hands. Look at the last 100 times you've held 9 trumps, and count how many 4-0 splits there have been. I suspect it will be pretty close to 10, and you're simply imagining things like everyone else who brought this up.
#8
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Posted 2019-August-06, 02:58
I would be interested in seeing the kernal/speculum/ or other tool myself together with an analysis. Over time it is likely to be fine, but the times that strange things do happen seems to be in certain events suggesting that hands with very even distribution are thrown out by non random methods. But then we Engineers/math guns are always a suspicious lot.))
#9
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Posted 2019-August-06, 04:05
Please disregard any reputation points I gave above. I tried to undo one that I believe was incorrect.
I agree in principle with what most people are saying but the issue is far too complex to address on a forum and I'm too tired
Suffice to say I trust that the hands are suitably random, whatever randomness means
I agree in principle with what most people are saying but the issue is far too complex to address on a forum and I'm too tired
Suffice to say I trust that the hands are suitably random, whatever randomness means
#10
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Posted 2019-August-06, 04:16
Humans are programmed to see patterns. We see representations of things in clouds and on toast. Our brains organise random occurrences into patterns and we cannot stop them doing that. We just have to recognise that this bias exists
#11
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Posted 2019-August-06, 08:59
dsLawsd, on 2019-August-06, 02:58, said:
I would be interested in seeing the kernal/speculum/ or other tool myself together with an analysis. Over time it is likely to be fine, but the times that strange things do happen seems to be in certain events suggesting that hands with very even distribution are thrown out by non random methods. But then we Engineers/math guns are always a suspicious lot.))
The only non-random thing we do is swap the hand with the most HCP to South when you play Best Hand robot tourneys.
We also use the Linux rand() function, which is admittedly not the best random number generator. But Hans's analysis didn't find any particular bias due to this.
#12
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Posted 2019-August-06, 13:24
Second opinions anyone? Statistics profs?
Also, swapping the hand violates the Laws of Bridge which states what is required for a bridge hand deal. What should/could be done instead is to Rotate the best hand to South without changing anything else.
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
Also, swapping the hand violates the Laws of Bridge which states what is required for a bridge hand deal. What should/could be done instead is to Rotate the best hand to South without changing anything else.
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
#13
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Posted 2019-August-06, 14:10
dsLawsd, on 2019-August-06, 13:24, said:
Also, swapping the hand violates the Laws of Bridge which states what is required for a bridge hand deal. What should/could be done instead is to Rotate the best hand to South without changing anything else.
Good point.
dsLawsd, on 2019-August-06, 13:24, said:
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
Good question.
#14
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Posted 2019-August-07, 06:38
I’ve never seen patterns in toast?! Does this mean I’m not human 
#15
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Posted 2019-August-07, 08:34
dsLawsd, on 2019-August-06, 13:24, said:
Second opinions anyone? Statistics profs?
Also, swapping the hand violates the Laws of Bridge which states what is required for a bridge hand deal. What should/could be done instead is to Rotate the best hand to South without changing anything else.
Also, swapping the hand violates the Laws of Bridge which states what is required for a bridge hand deal. What should/could be done instead is to Rotate the best hand to South without changing anything else.
How can you rotate the best hand to South without changing any of the other hands? And what difference does it make how we get the best hand into the South position, it has the same effect on the randomness.
Quote
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
We use a simple C function we wrote decades ago.
#16
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Posted 2019-August-07, 11:33
fwiw... I feel the same way... I alter my play in robot tournaments to expect finesses to be off. I find that to be more annoying than bad trump breaks which seem to be more randomly distributed.
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Posted 2019-August-07, 13:08
barmar, on 2019-August-07, 08:34, said:
How can you rotate the best hand to South without changing any of the other hands? And what difference does it make how we get the best hand into the South position, it has the same effect on the randomness.
We use a simple C function we wrote decades ago.
We use a simple C function we wrote decades ago.
By elementary logic you can rotate the best hand to South, the other hands rotate too. And this maintains the same random deal whereas the BBO method does not.
And I at least assumed the question about ACBL was related to real world tournaments, not BBO.
Our RA uses Big Deal I think.
#18
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Posted 2019-August-07, 14:24
pescetom, on 2019-August-07, 13:08, said:
By elementary logic you can rotate the best hand to South, the other hands rotate too. And this maintains the same random deal whereas the BBO method does not.
This can't make a single bit of difference. The probability a given deal occurs is identical whether you rotate or swap.
#19
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Posted 2019-August-07, 19:13
It's not as random as you think. Just keep track of the leads for a while. It is probably
less than 2 or 3% of the time that the opening lead is away from a King. Now later on
in the play you get the Bots leading from Kings.
When I play in the club you just learn who leads form Kings and who doesn't There it
is at least 30 or 40% leading from a missing king.
less than 2 or 3% of the time that the opening lead is away from a King. Now later on
in the play you get the Bots leading from Kings.
When I play in the club you just learn who leads form Kings and who doesn't There it
is at least 30 or 40% leading from a missing king.
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Posted 2019-August-07, 21:15
dsLawsd, on 2019-August-06, 13:24, said:
. . .
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
The story continues - What deal generator does the ACBL use for Tournament play?
The ACBL began using Big Deal for the Winter NABC in 2016. Nicolas Hammond (author of the recent Detecting Cheating in Bridge) proved that feeding a suitable program boards 1, 2, & 3 of an ACBL generated board set would yield boards 4-36 in a short enough time for the result to be useful for cheating on most of the "solved" boards. He also delivered statistics indicating that some pairs might be using this "crack" (or one like it) to cheat at NABCs and Regionals. The ACBL (and EBU, and USBF, and WBF) finished switching to Big Deal by January 2017.
Apparently, most folks with sufficient knowledge of bridge, national bridge organizations, cryptography, mathematics, and statistics (This skill cluster probably requires a team of several folks in most instances.) believe that with suitable communications security Big Deal is not subject to such a "crack."
:-)
Brian Potter
e-mail: ClioBridgeGuy >at< att >dot< net
URL: Bridge at the Village
Bridge is more than just a card game. It is a cerebral sport. Bridge teaches you logic, reasoning, quick thinking, patience, concentration, and partnership skills.
- Martina Navratilova
Brian Potter
e-mail: ClioBridgeGuy >at< att >dot< net
URL: Bridge at the Village
Bridge is more than just a card game. It is a cerebral sport. Bridge teaches you logic, reasoning, quick thinking, patience, concentration, and partnership skills.
- Martina Navratilova