[jtfanclub]

Oh, almost forgot the punchline to the story....

+110 was above average- fewer than half of the people who bid 3NT made it.
Turns out there's a very nasty entry issue.

[mycroft]

inquiry, on Feb 28 2007, 03:55 PM, said:

First, I will assume this was F2F and north explained the 2♥ bid.
[Second]...MI has occured.

The second question is was there damage as a result of the mis-information?

I think one thing is clear, if it wasn't for the mis-information, E/W would have done better. Since the anything subsequent to the MI that E/W does should not affect the result N/S gets, thus N/S will not get to score up 3DW -110. Without the MI, West would double and N/S would be a potential pickle.

Okay to here.

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North is likely to bid 3♣ pass/correct which will get hammered. Even if north passes, it is possible East pass, and if not will bid 3♣ which will get a 3♠ bid by West and 3NT by East.

When investigating "what could have happened", E-W get the right information, but N-S don't get to wake up. So North is never going to bid 3C. He might bid 2S, though.

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Thus, I would assign an adjusted score to N/S so we are heading for at least a split score if not soley in the Favor of E/W.  I think the score I would assign N/S would be a mix of  3♣X down four -1100 and 2♥x down three (-800). I figure about 80% chance of 3♥ so I would give E/W for -980 (or just -1100 and be done with it, all are probably zeros for them).

In the world that does weighted scores (L12C3 territory), you don't percentage the result (and create a non-bridge result), you percentage the awards for the result.

So N/S -980 is never in the picture. One would assign 80% of the MPs for 2Hx and 20% of the MPs 2Sx (or whatever), or 60% 2Hx, 20% 2Sx, 20% 3NT=, as the weighting goes.

I am not sure that east, with a good 5-card club suit and a minimum NT opener opposite a potential 4144 invitation is going to "automatically" find a pass of a takeout double over the safety of 3C, but I might be a chicken. And what does west do with 4054? Guess?

But that only applies to the relevant weightings; in L12C2 territory, it is clearly "possible" that 2Hx is getting passed out.

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The question for E/W is more clear. The question is along the lines of did they commit an egregious error that severed the connection between the MI infraction and the damage that occurred to them. The answer there is clearly yes. West has a very good 14 hcp and nice five card diamond suit, along with "well placed" spade honors. And he bid a non-forcing 3♦. Of course East has an easy pass of a non-forcing 3♦, although his 11 pt 1NT probably added to their problems, at least it was not egregious bid. I think 3D on this auction got what it desrved, so I would leave EW with their 3D = +110 result.

I would agree. I know posters say "they shouldn't be in this position, and they lost their best two bids to the MI". Yes, but trade one of North's spades for South's clubs and it's an aggressive DONT 2H bid (hearts and spades). If E/W have no way of making a game-forcing bid in diamonds over interference, then lemme at 'em - I can overcall 1NT! It's a weakness in their methods - I'd say an egregious one. If none of 2H, 2S, X-and-pull, 2NT, or 3D is GF, well, then, it will be next time. There's a difference between not playing optimally and making a passable call with a game-forcing hand, as far as egregiousness goes.

Michael.