[gnasher]

kfay, on Nov 13 2007, 06:25 PM, said:

I don't really know what 3♠ means here but why can't we bid that asking partner to bid 3NT or something?

Unless you play it as natural, 3S means either "I have a spade stop; do you have a diamond stop?" or "I have a diamond stop; do you have a spade stop?", depending on which way around you play 3S and 3D. One of these should get you to 3NT from partner's side.

kfay, on Nov 13 2007, 06:25 PM, said:

I don't get why people want to pass if 2♠ is forcing.  Who are we believing here, partner or opponents?  Don't we want to double a forcing bid to set up our auto penalty double later?  To me this is more obviously for penalty than if it goes ...(2♠)-p-(3♠)-p-(p)-X.  It's obvious to me that we're doubling 3 of whatever the heck they're playing in for 9 tricks.

My rationale for passing a forcing 2S is that I'm going to double whatever they end up in, without involving partner. Since they might be about to bid 3S, doubling 2S would be counterproductive.

[whereagles]

I think I'll bid 2NT if that's natural. We should have some tricks coming in in clubs.

[cherdano]

Hannie, on Nov 13 2007, 11:51 AM, said:

Let me make my case for doubling. Dummy has most likely AKJxxx in diamonds, so probably no other useful highcards. Either partner or declarer is void in diamonds. Declarer should have at least 6 spades and partner most likely 4 or perhaps 3 spades. So dummy has at most 2 spades (most likely 1) and therefore probably has no other shortness.

Why is partner "most likely" to have 4 spades? Given that LHO should have a 6-card suit (at least), the odds of partner having 3 rather than 4 spades increase dramatically. I would guess the odds of both your assumptions being right (dummy has AKJxxx of diamonds and partner has 4 spades) are below 50%.

[han]

I don't understand why the odds of partner having 3 spades increase when LHO has at least 6 diamonds. That guarantees that partner has at most 1 diamond and doesn't that make it *more* likely that partner has four spades?

[cherdano]

Sorry I meant RHO obviously.

[jdonn]

I don't think lebensohl 2NT makes much sense to me on this auction since I just pass my bad hands when not forced to bid, but if it's your agreement it's your agreement.

Hannie you are making a whole lot of assumptions, and they are all as favorable as possible for your side. I think you could find in practice things don't lie nearly that badly for the opponents in spades. My gut is that it would be a fairly even spread between -2, -1, and making, with some rare outliers of making more or less than that.

[Apollo81]

I dont understand why everyone likes this hand so much. Even if we have 27 HCP I am not convinced we are making anything. 2NT which should be natural here is my second choice. I think they will make it a fair pct of the time if we double it. HCP does not always equate to tricks.

[gnasher]

jdonn, on Nov 14 2007, 02:59 AM, said:

Hannie you are making a whole lot of assumptions, and they are all as favorable as possible for your side. I think you could find in practice things don't lie nearly that badly for the opponents in spades. My gut is that it would be a fairly even spread between -2, -1, and making, with some rare outliers of making more or less than that.

Hannie might be unnecessarily optimistic about the chance of four spades opposite, but the rest of his assumptions are reasonable.

I gave an example where partner has an aceless 3415 9-count and we're going to take it 1-2 off. Why don't you try to construct an layout where everyone has their bid and the contract is making?

[FrancesHinden]

jdonn, on Nov 14 2007, 02:59 AM, said:

I don't think lebensohl 2NT makes much sense to me on this auction since I just pass my bad hands when not forced to bid, but if it's your agreement it's your agreement.

Lebensohl is being used to distinguish hands that just want to compete and hands that want to force.

After 2D x 2S I want to bid 3C forcing on xx KQx xx AKxxxx and I want to bid 2NT to compete in clubs on xx Kxx xx KJxxxx. Similarly with hearts.

You can argue about whether 2NT natural is more or less common on this auction (it's a pretty rare auction in the first place), but the theory is that - particularly here - you would usually be able to double for penalties or bid 3NT rather than bid a natural 2NT.

And it's consistent with all other similar auctions to play 2NT as lebensohl here (1S x 2S, 1NT 2S, 2D multi x 2S, 1NT x 2S etc - 2NT from the next player is lebensohl on all of these)