Here is the actual hand:
3
♥ can be defeated on a trump lead, but will probably make on another lead. I don't know what the chances of RHO (the pro remember) finding a trump lead are, or whether he would consider doubling 3
♥... since I passed 3
♦ out at the table.
While 3
♦ has no real chance to make, it should be down one (lose one heart, three clubs, one spade). LHO (the weak player) managed to go two down!
The matchpoint scores on an 8 top for likely results:
-100: 0 matchpoints
-50: 1 matchpoint
+50 or +100: 2 matchpoints
+140: 4 matchpoints
+300 or +530: 8 matchpoints
While I agree with Justin that many tables will be defending 2
♥, I don't think this makes bidding 3
♥ necessarily a good plan. After all, if 3
♥ makes we get only an average and if it doesn't make we get a near-bottom even if 3
♦ was making (since the field defends 2
♥). Surely there is some chance that partner plays the hand better than the field, but we also have at least one defender (the one on lead) better than the field. On the actual hand it depends only on the defense and partner's play is basically a non-factor.
In hindsight I rather like a call no one has mentioned -- double! Note that LHO is a passed hand and RHO couldn't double 1
♥. So they are on marginal values at best. And we've got the weak player declaring, which could easily be worth a trick. Double seems like the only likely way to get a
top board from this pair on the auction; any other action will get us average (if we're lucky) and a poor result (if we're unlucky) because RHO found the anti-field double...
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit