[kenrexford]

My inclination is to ditch a diamond on the second heart. I'm not sure what will happen next if I do that.

I'm expecting LHO to perhaps continue with another heart. If RHO ruffs in, I overruff, play the A-K of spades (hopefully all following) and then play the top club to see if a finesse is necessary. I can pretty much expect to claim if LHO has two spades.

If I get another heart and RHO does not ruff in, I have to ruff now, I think. Pitching another card to be able to ruff in dummy is a mirage. So, I now have to get spades right.

If RHO has Qxxx, I need to hook the spade, using a diamond entry, and then pull all of the spades before leading clubs. That leaves diamonds wide open unless I hook the diamond, which also requires that LHO have the diamond King. I would also not be able to pick up clubs unless LHO has a stiff club. So, to be able to handle Qxxx to my right, I need LHO to have ♠xx ♥AKQxxxx ♦K(x)(x) ♣x(x)(x). That's possible, apparently. If RHO has Qxx, this line also works.

My alternative is to play off the spade Ace-King, and then the fourth one if necessary. That gains whenever LHO has the Qx, and I make anyway if RHO has Qxx. But, I lose if RHO has Qxxx. On that line, I do not need to commit to the diamond finesse, however. The problem with that line is that RHO should pop in the spade Queen from Qxx and then unblock as necessary when I play the A-J of spades. Of course, the premise is that RHO does not know this, which throws everything off, except that the same problem might be faced at the other table(s), suggesting that in doubt maybe I play as if the defense was the same everywhere as here and cater to that layout.

So, it seems to me that I have to play spades to be four to my right, in theory. If RHO has xxxx, then the play of the A-K-J will work, with no need to finesse diamonds. If RHO has Qxxx, then I need to finesse diamonds AND spades.

It seems that if LHO must have two spades, and RHO four, then the odds of LHO having the Queen are 33% (using pure math). The diamond hook might be 50-50 in theory, but the need for LHO to have 1, 2, or 3 clubs (when I hook diamonds to enter dummy) means that he can only have 1, 2, or 3 diamonds, and RHO 4, 5, or 6 diamonds. That makes the finesse mathematically way off. More so than the advantage to him having the spade Queen.

So, I think the end is that I pitch a diamond on the second heart, ruff the third heart, and cash the spades from the top.

[ceeb]

Top spades, clubs. This requires RHO to have the ♦K, which should be a favorite just from the distribution, and LHO to have either ♠Qxx or a doubleton. In other words, it wins against nearly 50% of the 3-3 trump breaks and also most of the 2=4 breaks.

If ♣ are 4-0 it still seems a reasonable start.

Three rounds of spades (a) slightly increases the success rate against 3-3 spades to 50%, but at the expense of down 4 when LHO has ♠Qxx, and (b ) risks RHO finding the best defense of exiting ♦ rather than club after the 3rd spade when they are 2=4. (b ) is imponderable but even if it is zero I think (a) has a net negative expectation.

[Edmunte1]

Ruff ♥, Diamond to ♦10
If wins ♠ finesse, ♠A, clubs (finessing again in ♦ if ♣ is 4-0). If it loses, win return, ♦A, ♠finesse, ♠A, clubs

[jkdood]

Well, I thought I figured out that after the mandatory K of diamonds onside you should work the squeeze rather than the spade finesse with maybe some end of hand guesswork, but then I saw the contract wasn't 6C after all, as i first assumed!

M.

[gnasher]

Ruff the heart, cash ♠A, and run ♦J.

If the diamond finesse works, take a second diamond finesse, ruff dummy's last heart, cash the other top spade, and play clubs. That works unless LHO has four spades or RHO has five.

If the diamond finesse loses, use dummy's diamond entry to take a spade finesse, then cash the other top spade and run clubs.

If the diamond finesse wins the first time but loses the second time, maybe RHO's a better player than Justin thinks.

[y66]

ruff HK, SA, SK, run clubs

[ceeb]

gnasher, on Aug 3 2008, 02:14 AM, said:

Ruff the heart, cash ♠A, and run ♦J.

If the diamond finesse works, take a second diamond finesse, ruff dummy's last heart, cash the other top spade, and play clubs.  That works unless LHO has four spades or RHO has five.

If the diamond finesse loses, use dummy's diamond entry to take a spade finesse, then cash the other top spade and run clubs.

If the diamond finesse wins the first time but loses the second time, maybe RHO's a better player than Justin thinks.

Surely the ♦ finesse won't "work" -- LHO will cover leaving you with a small diamond spot to worry about. If you then ruff a heart and cash a spade you'll need 3 rounds of clubs to live -- almost impossible since RHO can discard on the 3rd heart.

Even without that discard problem it might be (depending on how you feel about down many) slightly better to finesse the spade regardless, rather than ruff a heart.

Given the stipulation that LHO must have 2 or 3 spades to stand a chance:

-- Diamond finesse line: The spade finesse is 60%, and you make in 2/3 of those cases (3 spades or long clubs on the right).

-- My line: Unless there is some reason why LHO is particularly likely to bid 4♥ only when holding the ♦K, it's 2:1 (on empty spaces) that RHO has it. Playing top spades, top clubs will then succeed 3/4 of that time (losing mainly when RHO has ♠Qxx), plus when LHO has Qx, AKQxxxx, Kxx, x. I think it's nearly 15% better.

== Spade, spade, spade might be better still if RHO can be relied on to miss the diamond return with Qxxx, Jx, Kxxx(x), Jx(x) after winning the 3rd spade -- quite an imaginative play.

[gnasher]

ceeb, on Aug 3 2008, 05:49 PM, said:

Surely the ♦ finesse won't "work" -- LHO will cover leaving you with a small diamond spot to worry about.

That's true. I'm sure that dummy had ♦9 last time I looked at it.

[Winstonm]

I think it is right to play RHO for a 4243 or 4252 pattern, wiith the diamond king.
It seems this hand is about timing, control, and limited entries.

Therefore, ruff the second heart and then play the jack of spades from hand, forcing RHO to win. From this point on, I believe we are in control and will lose only 2 spades and a heart.

[ceeb]

Jlall, on Aug 3 2008, 12:13 PM, said:

ceeb, I do not understand your stipulation that spades must be 4-2 or 3-3 to have a chance.

I wrote (and calculated) that way because I was comparing Gnasher's line and it was his stipulation. I guess if RHO is ♠xxxxx ♥Jx ♦Kxx ♣Jxx we'd be ok. Are there additional chances? Any significant ones?

[nige1]

Jlall, on Aug 2 2008, 01:13 PM, said:

Kind of embarassed by how badly I played this hand, but I think I have found the right solution after the fact at least. Let's see if you can do better.
You get to 4S on the auction 1C, 4H, p p 4S p p p. LHO leads the ace of hearts and then the king of hearts. RHO follows low then jack (udca).

You know that LHO might bid this way with quite a sound hand, so he can have just AKQ seventh and out or could also have other honors. How do you play this? IMP scoring.

Also something that may affect your line is that RHO is not a strong player.

---

I like ceeb's and y66's line:

• Ruff the 2nd ♥
  
• Cash ♠AK
  
• Run ♣

Hoping RHO has 4153 or similar shape.

[ceeb]

Jlall, on Aug 3 2008, 02:59 PM, said:

Ok, I will throw out what I think is the best line by a fair amount:

Cash 1 spade and then play clubs.

I love these counterintuitive propositions so I hope you're right.

If LHO has a singleton trump (22%) you have a chance but you will need to guess who has the ♦K and can guess right >50%. Do you therefore finesse if RHO ruffs & plays spade?

If LHO has 2 trumps (40%) you are in reasonable shape if and only if also 3 clubs.

If LHO has 3 trumps (26%) you have fair chances. Presumably if LHO ruffs first & plays a heart you will ruff & cash a trump. What happens if LHO has ♠Qxx and ♣x(x)?

If LHO has 4 trumps (7%) not much chance single dummy.

There are choice in both play and defense, but as I guess the play it adds to about 12% + 3% + 20-23% = 35-38% (larger number assumes they never beat you when LHO has ♠Qxx, ♣xx). For my line, about 0% + 28% + 10% =38%.

How do you figure it? How do you plan to play?