[se12sam]

Scoring: MP

You are South defending against 3NT after a bidding that went:
West - East
        1♣
1♠ - 1NT
3NT

Your carding agreements are 4th best and UDCA, and accordingly you lead ♦5. Partner wins with ♦A, and returns ♥5 which you win with the Q.
At MPs, what do you play at trick 3? Is there a stand-out choice (over other options)? As per online profiles, opps are Intermediate Partner (North) is stronger but not expert.

Recap:
Trick 1: D5-6-A-3
Trick 2: H5-9-Q-7

---

[MFA]

♣K. Partner couldn't bid 2♥ in spite of a heart suit, values and shape. His suit is probably not that great. I think trying for club trick(s) rates to be right.

[wclass___]

Strange situation.

Maybe declarer has ♠xx ♥AJ9x ♦KQx ♣QJxx
Nothing else doesn't make sence to me.

[jonottawa]

Nothing else doesn't make sence to me either.

I think they're in a great spot and we're probably hosed no matter what we do. Less than 25% of the field will be in 3NT. In real life I'd return a ♥ without much pause for thought.

[Codo]

Partner has 10-12 HCPs, he has 5-6 hearts and the ace of diamond seems to be singelton.
Declarers play of the 9 of heart is suspicious. Why should he play the 9 from AJ9x with 7 and 8 in dummy? So I would play him for AJ9 and partner for Kxxxxx.

Is it possible that declarer just has JT9 in hearts and partner AKxxxx? Hardly. Because with these hearts and the ace of diamonds he surely had bid 2 Heart.

So, we "know " 7 HCPS in partners hand so far but he must have some more and these must be in clubs.

So the king of Clubs stands out a mile.

[se12sam]

jonottawa, on May 18 2009, 08:49 PM, said:

I think they're in a great spot and we're probably hosed no matter what we do. Less than 25% of the field will be in 3NT.

Actually, 8% of the tables in play reached 3NT.

[whereagles]

I'm more into declarer holding something like

xx
KJxx
KQx
Axxx

But in this scenario I'm in for a zero anyway... lol.

Pard seems to have a 2-5-1-5 or 2-5-2-4. If his clubs were good enough, he might have switched to a club instead of a heart. So I guess I'll just continue hearts. Who knows, perhaps he has

xx
AKJxx
Ax
xxxx

and was lectured in the school of "don't overcall on a 5 card suit at the two level".

[MFA]

se12sam, on May 19 2009, 04:50 AM, said:

jonottawa, on May 18 2009, 08:49 PM, said:

I think they're in a great spot and we're probably hosed no matter what we do. Less than 25% of the field will be in 3NT.

Actually, 8% of the tables in play reached 3NT.

Hmm, in the fields I usually play in people love to the extreme to bid 3N with any kind of hand containing a running suit.

[MFA]

whereagles, on May 19 2009, 05:33 AM, said:

Pard seems to have a 2-5-1-5 or 2-5-2-4. If his clubs were good enough, he might have switched to a club instead of a heart. So I guess I'll just continue hearts. Who knows, perhaps he has

xx
AKJxx
Ax
xxxx

and was lectured in the school of "don't overcall on a 5 card suit at the two level".

If he has a doubleton diamond, it is ♦AK or ♦AQ. Which he can't have when he switches.
So partner is 2515, 2614, 1615 or 1516.

[se12sam]

Scoring: MP

---

This was the full hand. As expected, most of you correctly concluded that ♣K stood out. The reasons I liked this hand were:
1. No one will be in 3NT; most will be in a spade game or a spade partial.
2. If partner has either ace, 4♠ can lose 4 tricks -- ♦A plus 2♣+1♥ or 2♥+♣K -- and can lose more (you can engineer a ruff for partner)
3. South knows that spades break (even if East has a singleton). Anyone who makes 3NT will score well and therefore overtricks are of no concern.
4. It is unlikely but not impossible for partner (North) to hold ♣Q with the ♣A.
    So you switch to ♣K, hoping to beat the contract. Today is your lucky day!

Obviously, declarer should also have concluded that no-one will be in 3NT which only makes if spades break 3-3. If he puts up the ♥A at trick 2, there is no story. 3NT = scores 90% for declarer, 3NT+1 or +2 scores only a couple of %s extra. 3NT -1 is a disaster for declarer -- scores ~5%.

[eyhung]

Declarer has misplayed the hand. 3NT makes not only when spades are 3-3, but when the jack is doubleton or singleton, which is above 50%.

[Phil]

1. Why the ♥5?
2. Why didn't North double 1♠?

Agree with the ♣K shift.

[mikeh]

Phil, on May 19 2009, 04:25 PM, said:

1. Why the ♥5?
2. Why didn't North double 1♠?

Agree with the ♣K shift.

I think you misread the auction, Phil. After 1♣ P 1♠, double is played, by most of us, as both reds... and his diamonds are a little suspect

I agree with the criticism of the heart 5, if that was actually the spot played.

[Phil]

mikeh, on May 19 2009, 04:39 PM, said:

Phil, on May 19 2009, 04:25 PM, said:

1. Why the ♥5?
2. Why didn't North double 1♠?

Agree with the ♣K shift.

I think you misread the auction, Phil. After 1♣ P 1♠, double is played, by most of us, as both reds... and his diamonds are a little suspect

I agree with the criticism of the heart 5, if that was actually the spot played.

Yes, careless as usual by me.

[se12sam]

mikeh, on May 19 2009, 10:39 PM, said:

Phil, on May 19 2009, 04:25 PM, said:

1. Why the ♥5?
2. Why didn't North double 1♠?

Agree with the ♣K shift.

I think you misread the auction, Phil. After 1♣ P 1♠, double is played, by most of us, as both reds... and his diamonds are a little suspect

I agree with the criticism of the heart 5, if that was actually the spot played.

Yes, the ♥5 was the actual spot card played. I suppose the highest available spot ♥6 would be better (in a sense of discouraging a heart continuation), but then I was not at the table and was shown this hand later.