[Phil]

IMPs, all vul

Scoring: IMP

---

1D - (1H) - 1S - (3H);
4H - (5H) - 5S - AP

Lead is the ♥5. PTP.

[Fluffy]

I have been thinking about ducking the first diamond but it seems to fail misserably.

Switching to ruff, ♠A, ♦AK, if LHO has ♦Qxxx I think I will go down.

[Jlall]

Fluffy, on Sep 14 2009, 10:07 AM, said:

I have been thinking about ducking the first diamond but it seems to fail misserably.

Switching to ruff, ♠A, ♦AK, if LHO has ♦Qxxx I think I will go down.

This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

Where did my 5S bid come from lol

[Phil]

Jlall, on Sep 14 2009, 03:52 PM, said:

This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

Nothing clever needed, but if you thought about it some more, you might determine that you are getting some nasty splits when your opponents bid up to 5♥ on nine trump.

By the way, I took the 'clear' line.

[bid_em_up]

Assuming I ruff and cash the spade Ace, do both opponents follow?

(And I am thinking about whether or not I am ruffing trick 1 with the spade K, to possibly retain an extra entry to my hand, but haven't decided yet)

At first glance, it looks like the only losers should be the spade Q and the diamond Q as long as trumps are at least 3-1. It's just a matter of figuring out what order to establish this in.

[Phil]

bid_em_up, on Sep 14 2009, 05:28 PM, said:

Assuming I ruff and cash the spade Ace, do both opponents follow?

(And I am thinking about whether or not I am ruffing trick 1 with the spade K, to possibly retain an extra entry to my hand, but haven't decided yet)

At first glance, it looks like the only losers should be the spade Q and the diamond Q as long as trumps are at least 3-1. It's just a matter of figuring out what order to establish this in.

If you cash the ♠A, both follow with spots

[gnasher]

Jlall, on Sep 14 2009, 09:52 PM, said:

This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

I've spent ages trying to think of something clever, and have mostly only come up with something stupid, except possibly this:

Ruff, cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to ♣A and take a diamond finesse.

If we assume that RHO has a singleton somewhere, that gains against:
  2443 - 2515
  1444 - 3514 with ♦Q on the left

Fluffy's line gains against:
  3433 - 1525 with ♦Q on the right
  3424 - 1534 with ♦Q on the right
  1444 - 3514 with ♦Q on the right

Neither line works against 3415 - 1543.

Does that sound right? And which line is better?

[Cyberyeti]

My analysis was wrong.

This post has been edited by Cyberyeti: 2009-September-15, 10:11

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Sep 15 2009, 05:16 AM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 14 2009, 09:52 PM, said:

This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

I've spent ages trying to think of something clever, and have mostly only come up with something stupid, except possibly this:

Ruff, cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to ♣A and take a diamond finesse.

If we assume that RHO has a singleton somewhere, that gains against:
  2443 - 2515
  1444 - 3514 with ♦Q on the left

Fluffy's line gains against:
  3433 - 1525 with ♦Q on the right
  3424 - 1534 with ♦Q on the right
  1444 - 3514 with ♦Q on the right

Neither line works against 3415 - 1543.

Does that sound right? And which line is better?

Yeah that line looks quite reasonable, seems like the Fluffy line is still better.

If we are going to try to guess which shapes are more liekly, I think 3514 with Qxx spades is less likely than 1534 with Qxx of diamonds since the former has better defense.

Sometimes LHO won't bid 3H with 3433, but at white/red I think they almost always would.

With 1444 they might sometimes bid 4H at w/r (depends on opp, I think I do this more than most people?)

So my inferences would indicate the lines fluffy wins on are more likely on average, plus there are more of them (though obviously the stiff Q of diamonds combo is heavily discounted).

[wclass___]

I think that ♠ ruff; ♦A; ♦K would lose only if ♦ are 5-0.

But maybe i should ruff with high ♠ and lead small ♠ to hand in order to finesse ♦?
You would need something like ♠Qxx ♥xxxxx♣xxxxx with East

[gnasher]

wclass___, on Sep 18 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

I think that ♠ ruff; ♦A; ♦K would lose only if ♦ are 5-0.

If East has ♠Q, I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with ♠Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

Quote

But maybe i should ruff with high ♠ and lead small ♠ to hand in order to finesse ♦?
You would need something like ♠Qxx ♥xxxxx♣xxxxx with East

That loses when ♠Q is singleton and ♦Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.
When does it gain over my line? (Ruff low; cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to ♣A and take a diamond finesse.)

[wclass___]

gnasher, on Sep 18 2009, 03:48 AM, said:

He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with ♠Q and plays a third heart.

Discard ♣ and claim!?

Quote

That loses when ♠Q is singleton and ♦Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.

huh? 5♥ bid with 5♥; ♦Q; ♠Q/xxx ?!

2nd line was intended specifically versus ♠Qxx;♥xxxxx;♦xxxxx as i doun't see other way how to make then...

[gnasher]

wclass___, on Sep 18 2009, 11:13 AM, said:

gnasher, on Sep 18 2009, 03:48 AM, said:

He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart.  If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with ♠Q and plays a third heart.

Discard ♣ and claim!?

It's gone:
  Heart lead, ruffed
  ♦A
  ♦K, ruffed
  Second heart, ruffed
  Diamond, ruffed with ♠Q, as third heart is pitched
  Another heart, to which South has to follow suit.

After ruffing this heart, dummy has a bare ♠A, LHO has ♠xx and ♦Q, and declarer still has a club loser.

Quote

Quote

That loses when ♠Q is singleton and ♦Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.

huh? 5♥ bid with 5♥; ♦Q; ♠Q/xxx ?!

I meant that for RHO to bid 5♥ with only five of them (which we know he did), he's more likely to have ♠xxx than ♠Qxx.

Quote

2nd line was intended specifically versus ♠Qxx;♥xxxxx;♦xxxxx as i doun't see other way how to make then...

OK, that makes sense.

[wclass___]

gnasher, on Sep 18 2009, 06:30 AM, said:

  Diamond, ruffed with ♠Q, as third heart is pitched

Does it make more sence if i say.. 'Pitch ♣ and claim!?' ?

[gnasher]

I see. You plan to pitch a club on the trick where it's legal to do so, rather on the one where it's not? That seems to work.

[Fluffy]

gnasher, on Sep 18 2009, 08:48 AM, said:

wclass___, on Sep 18 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

I think that ♠ ruff; ♦A; ♦K would lose only if ♦ are 5-0.

If East has ♠Q, I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with ♠Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

If he is 2515 and ruffs with ♠Q He is ruffing 4 hearts in dummy making 9 trumps and 2 aces as his 11 tricks I think.

[Phil]

gnasher, on Sep 18 2009, 03:48 AM, said:

I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with ♠Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

I've held off on this intentionally.

I think its very likely RHO has shortness somewhere. I played as suggested here (♠A and ♦AK) and went down when RHO was in fact 3=5=1=4. Lose 12? Lose 5? No, win 3 when the other declarer in the same contract went off 2 lol.

A winning play at the table is simply to draw trump and finesse the diamond. Curiously Fluffy's suggestion of ruffing with a high spade actually leads to an overtrick since you can establish a trump entry to hand without releasing the club A.

So I simply don't know if there is a sure tricks line when RHO has a singleton diamond or singleton spade

Please feel free to pass this around the net. I'd like to get some more opinions.

[gnasher]

Phil, on Sep 18 2009, 03:44 PM, said:

So I simply don't know if there is a sure tricks line when RHO has a singleton diamond or singleton spade

Didn't you read this post:

wclass___, on Sep 18 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

I think that ♠ ruff; ♦A; ♦K would lose only if ♦ are 5-0.

[nige1]

Phil, on Sep 14 2009, 09:59 AM, said:

Dealer: North Vul: GA Scoring: IMP

♠ AK9x ♥   ♦ AKJ983 ♣ T63 ♠ JT852 ♥ 7632 ♦ T5 ♣ AJ

1D - (1H) - 1S - (3H); 4H - (5H) - 5S - AP Lead is the ♥5. PTP.

I like Fluffy's line but like wclass, I slightly prefer to tackle ♦ without first drawing a round of ♠. I think this loses when an opponent has two singletons but caters for 4-1 ♦ splits when ♠Q is singleton or doubleton:

[nige1]

Sorry. I misread the problem
I thought we were in the spade slam
But I still prefer wclass's line.