[awm]

It's true that there are very maximum passes of 3♥ (like the given xx Jxx Kxxx Kxxx) where game is virtually cold. Of course, the other side of the equation, is anyone passing double and then 3♥ with a hand like xx Jxx xxxx Axxx? Here game has no play at all...

I'm not convinced that a 3♥ balance should be substantially lighter than a 3♥ overcall. What's a minimum 3♥ balance? I think xx KQTxxx Ax Qxx is about a minimum balance, and I would pass the same hand if I had a third small spade instead of a club. The given hand is about an ace better than minimum, which I think should be within the range of 3♥. I would expect double-then-3♥ to be better than this.

[zenko]

mgoetze, on May 25 2010, 06:09 AM, said:

MFA, on May 25 2010, 11:32 AM, said:

Also I think you are underestimating the frequency of partner having a 3NT call (after X+3♥). It is just about as likely that partner has three spades as he has two, and without any ruffing values for hearts and a somewhat balanced hand he will not be very hesitant about offering 3NT as a final contract.

I don't know about you but I am definitely not offering 3NT with the seven, four and three of spades.

Well with Jxx vs 753 and enough overall firepower I would put your chance of making 3N at about 50%, the chance of RHO having singleton top honor in spades is about 43%, but really is much more since in the other 57% of hands LHO is very close to have enough to open one spade, but on the other hand it is possible that he opened with 5 card suit so overall 50% chance of suit being blocked seems like a fair guess.