jdonn, on Jul 1 2010, 11:54 AM, said:
You haven't said why. Which part of why I believe this was a very serious error for an expert in a major event do you disagree with? Or do you have counter arguments? I'll be repetitive and list my reasons to make it easy for you.
- 3 experts polled strongly disagreed with the play and found another play automatic.
- 5-0 breaks are very unlikely a priori.
- West couldn't have the shape declarer played him for.
- Even if west had the "impossible" shape he couldn't then have the high cards declarer played him for.
- East couldn't have the shape declarer played him for.
- Even if east had the "impossible" shape he would have made a different lead (and if east had the impossible shape and impossible strength he wouldn't have doubled).
- Even if all that "impossibleness" existed, declarer still needed a defensive error.
- Even if declarer got all that, his goal was down 2 doubled rather than down 3 doubled for what could easily be an insignificant gain (something like lose 9 instead of lose 12 against teammates +100), when the alternative of playing for normal breaks would be to make doubled.
- Even if you accept that declarer should play for such an obscure gain, and if declarer's view of the cards was correct, his conclusion was wrong and he wouldn't have gained any tricks anyway! In other words, if declarer played a trump and they were 5-0 he would still be down 2 by playing a spade next, not down 3.
Ok your turn. Why wasn't his play a serious error?
Again, we agree to differ JDonn
but not as much as usual
I've already agreed that declarer's play was a mistake so I've agreed most of your points (although, I reject all your
"impossible" statements. There can be few bidding-certainties about the holdings of players doubtful about their agreements).
Nevertheless, for reasons advanced in previous posts, I still don't think it was a serious error. In summary: three experts is an inadequate poll. We don't know what they were told or what questions were asked but, IMO, one question should have been "is declarer's play a
serious error?". Furthermore, IMO, the answer to that question (if it was asked) should have been divulged.
If the correct line caters for unlikely distributions (given opponents' agreements), then it does not seem to be a serious error for declarer to misanalyse a hand and embark on an inferior line, unlikely to cost, even if it can't gain. With or without misinformation, players often do that (See the BBO "expert" forum, for examples, ad nauseam).
IMO, even if NS weren't direclty damaged, the appeal was reasonable, assuming that EW are of sufficient ability to be subject to a misinformation PP.
In this case, my judgements may be faulty but some directors share some of them. Hence rulings are likely to be inconsistent. The real fault is in
egregious rules that foster such unnecessary subjectivity