[vuroth]

billw55, on Aug 4 2010, 03:58 PM, said:

vuroth, on Aug 4 2010, 10:04 AM, said:

All 10 tables, including us, played in 3NT.  Still, neither my partner nor I were quite happy with the contract, but we couldn't see a clear solution.

So how many defending pairs failed to hold up the ♣A?

Actually, I didn't see anyone that failed to hold up. I was quite surprised (I don't have a lot of faith in the field).

[vuroth]

JLOGIC, on Aug 4 2010, 08:10 PM, said:

No offense to anyone in this thread but I always thought bidding 3C p 3N with a bunch of aces/kings and 2 small clubs was a mistake only beginners make.

No offense taken, here.

I did feel that the field would be in 3NT (I was right), and that there was a decent chance of a misdefense in clubs if I needed one (I was wrong). I also felt that partner might bid 3♣ NV with 7 semi-solid clubs and an outside card. I certainly could foresee the possibility that 3NT could be a total disaster, but the part that I wasn't certain about was what that would mean from a matchpoint perspective. I think at IMPs I don't even consider 3NT.

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:
- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦
- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥
- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

The biggest thing, for me, was trying to figure out what partner might and might not hold. If your partner is wont to open 3♣ NV second seat with 6 ♣s and no outside cards, or with a weaker ♣ suit, I think pass is a whole lot clearer.

Naturally, as I continue to play with this partner, I'll continue to get a better idea what kinds of hands he's likely to hold.

[pooltuna]

JLOGIC, on Aug 4 2010, 08:10 PM, said:

No offense to anyone in this thread but I always thought bidding 3C p 3N with a bunch of aces/kings and 2 small clubs was a mistake only beginners make.

It is not shocking to find out that partner has no entry and your clubs cannot run, it is what is expected.

generally agree but I allow my partners to hold ♣AKxxxxx or AQxxxxx. So yes if partner is barred from preempting if he holds the A in his suit I can see where 3NT could never be right not that I am wildly happy bidding 3NT as it is. IMV there is a good argument for just passing if this is MP (I'd have to go back and look to see if it is) I don't think jumping to 5♣ is a whole lot better if any than bidding 3NT.

[kenrexford]

3NT might make, but this is the kind of bidding decision that makes MP offensive. Bidding anything except 5♣ is not real bridge.

[Cyberyeti]

Quote

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:
- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦
- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥
- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

This is of course rubbish, he can have K♠ or Q♦ or both but if I'm on lead with any non blocked 5 card ♥ suit and ♣A you're not going to make 3N, and the honours in the second case mustn't be stiff, and the third case mustn't be doubleton.

[junyi_zhu]

vuroth, on Aug 4 2010, 11:40 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

---

Opponents silent. How should the bidding go?

Perhaps MP affects players' thinking. In IMPs, most likely, the bidding would go 3C 5C.
Still, it's a nice sequence in MP as well IMO.

[billw55]

Cyberyeti, on Aug 5 2010, 12:54 PM, said:

Quote

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:
- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦
- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥
- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

This is of course rubbish, he can have K♠ or Q♦ or both but if I'm on lead with any non blocked 5 card ♥ suit and ♣A you're not going to make 3N, and the honours in the second case mustn't be stiff, and the third case mustn't be doubleton.

I realize all that. But does that necessarily make it rubbish? Isn't 3NT still >50% to make on all those chances? In particular the bit in blue, how often will that happen? Maybe one time in five?

And when 3N makes, it makes 430 or 460, > 400 or 420. Which leads to ...

Quote

3NT might make, but this is the kind of bidding decision that makes MP offensive. Bidding anything except 5♣ is not real bridge.

This I can agree with. But the problem did in fact say matchpoints.

[Cyberyeti]

billw55, on Aug 5 2010, 01:04 PM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Aug 5 2010, 12:54 PM, said:

Quote

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:
- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦
- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥
- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

This is of course rubbish, he can have K♠ or Q♦ or both but if I'm on lead with any non blocked 5 card ♥ suit and ♣A you're not going to make 3N, and the honours in the second case mustn't be stiff, and the third case mustn't be doubleton.

I realize all that. But does that necessarily make it rubbish? Isn't 3NT still >50% to make on all those chances? In particular the bit in blue, how often will that happen? Maybe one time in five?

And when 3N makes, it makes 430 or 460, > 400 or 420. Which leads to ...

The statement was clearly rubbish, 3N is not 100% if you have either ♠K or ♦Q, that was what I was arguing about, and ditto the other combinations where they do not give the given percentages if short.

The probablities also depend on partner's heart length, if he has 3 hearts, the chance of a 5 card heart suit recedes.

If partner has say void, Qxx, xxx, KQJxxxx the Q♥ may not be enough on a spade lead if the K♥ is right, but the hand with the KH also has 5 spades, and a heart lead can defeat you if he holds ♥Qx by destroying the entry too early.

Calculating the percentages is not straightforward.

[kenrexford]

If Opener has the spade King or the diamond Queen, we likely make 12 tricks in clubs if 3NT makes, and if these cards are needed for 3NT then then 3NT probably JUST makes after a heart lead.

[Cyberyeti]

kenrexford, on Aug 5 2010, 05:44 PM, said:

If Opener has the spade King or the diamond Queen, we likely make 12 tricks in clubs if 3NT makes, and if these cards are needed for 3NT then then 3NT probably JUST makes after a heart lead.

Agree with this on ♠K, but ♦Q is likely to still only be 11 and a spade finesse for 12.

Also you can duck a heart or two in 3N if you choose to, which if partner has 2 or more hearts means you're only held to 9 if the long heart is with the A♣.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

If North opens 4C, you will end up in 5C, if North opens 3C, you will end up in 3NT.

I think, North has a 4C opener.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[vuroth]

kenrexford, on Aug 5 2010, 12:17 PM, said:

3NT might make, but this is the kind of bidding decision that makes MP offensive. Bidding anything except 5♣ is not real bridge.

I agree with your MP sentiments, Ken, but the ACBL pretty much funnels beginners like me into MP....