[manudude03]

Scoring: IMPs

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BBO tourney, pre-dealt hands.

You land in 7NT and receive the ♠6 lead. (clubs break 5-1, East having 5)

Pure guesswork?


Edit: auction is (no opp bidding)

1C-1H
2NT-3D
3H-4C
4D-4NT
5C-7NT

[ONEferBRID]

Surely, West didn't lead 4th best against a slam.
If he did, it places him with the ♠Q.... which is all you would need if the Cl split.

Since you said they don't, I've got more to work out.

[CSGibson]

I would need the auction to make the best guess, but I would tend to put missing queens with LHO, not only because of vacant spaces, but also because of restricted choice - assuming that one of the reasons he might not have led a red suit is because he has the queen, all things being equal. The auction influences both inferences, however.

[Echognome]

Since I only have 10 tricks off the top (2♠, 2♥, 2♦, 4♣), I need to develop 3 more. Guessing the heart suit is not enough, so would need both the heart suit and one of the pointed suit finesses to work. If diamonds are Qxx in the slot, I can claim. Therefore, I will start there. Assuming I don't go down immediately, but the ♦Q doesn't fall, then I will go after guessing hearts. I won't play on spades, since the extra trick still isn't enough. I guess I'd have to see which way the cards fell to decide who to play for the ♥Q.

[655321]

In real life, seeing dummy I would expect there to be 12 top tricks, and think the issue was looking for the 13th. So I would win a top spade, cash the club and cross to hand using the ♦A in order to keep my options open in the heart suit. Now when LHO shows out on the next club, I am in some trouble because of entries. Naturally we assume that LHO is likely to have the heart length and the heart queen, but even if we have 4 heart tricks by playing LHO for Q9xx, we can't cash the hearts then get back to hand to take another finesse.

LHO will presumably pitch a spade on the ♣A whether or not he has the queen. I would pitch the spade ten, giving up on spades and take the diamond finesse. If it wins, cash the ♦K, ♠K, and cross back to the ♥A. If LHO does have Qxxx in both red suits, he will have to give us 13 tricks. If RHO has a red queen I expect I won't make the contract.

There might some gain to keeping the ♠T and pitching a red card, but I think it is less likely that LHO has the ♠Q so I would rather put all my eggs in the red queens with LHO basket.

[rhm]

manudude03, on Aug 31 2010, 04:23 PM, said:

Dealer: South Vul: None Scoring: IMPs

♠ AKT ♥ KT85 ♦ KJ732 ♣ K ♠ J9 ♥ AJ7 ♦ A6 ♣ AQJ753

BBO tourney, pre-dealt hands.

You land in 7NT and receive the ♠6 lead. (clubs break 5-1, East having 5)

Pure guesswork?

The lead makes it unlikely that West has the queen of ♠.

I see 2 lines of play:

Line 1:

When you test the ♣ by reaching hand via the ace of ♦ you will see in time that you can not afford a red suit discard.
Discard the ten of ♠ and since you will need the ♦ finesse, hook and check whether ♦ break 3-3
If not, cash the ♠ ace and come back with ace of ♥ and discard ♦ on the remaining ♣ assuming West will not relinquish his high ♦.
Finally finesse in ♥ by leading the jack.

If West is long in the red suits he will be squeezed so that the ♥ suit will run.
You need West to have Qxx in ♦, or both red queens with length or the ♥9 must drop .

Line 2:

Come to hand at trick 2 with the ace of ♥
When West discards on the second ♣, discard a ♦ and run the jack of ♥, hoping for 4 tricks in ♥.
If they materialize play king and ace of ♦, on which East will be squeezed between the black suits.
If ♥ plays for 3 tricks only (West having ♥Q9xx or longer, since you can not afford to repeat the ♥ finesse), you need the queen of ♦ with West.
Cash the second ♠ trick, come to the ace of ♦ and discard now the ten of ♠ on the third ♣. On the fourth ♣ West will be squeezed in the red suits.

Line 2 is superior, because ♥ are more likely to run for 4 tricks than ♦ for 5. In either case the second red suit finesse is not required.

However line 2 is a bit of hindsight:

If ♣ break reasonably you prefer to come to the ace of ♦, because leaving your ♥ intact gives much better squeeze chances for the 13th trick.

Rainer Herrmann

[Fluffy]

I think I am pitching a diamong and running ♥J ( I entered with ♦A just as the digit.

this keeps many squueze options alive, but probably not the good ones