[jdonn]

It was huh. In that case I hijacked reality. This is why gib is a good partner for me, I may make these mistakes but he never does.

I think it's walking too fine of a line to bid 3NT here.

Actually to backtrack, why did we use puppet stayman on this hand anyway if the opening was 1NT? I would be much more interested in regular stayman then showing my clubs. We could belong in either minor here. I suppose the only reason is to offer 3NT even if we have a spade fit but I have already disagreed with doing that.

[bluecalm]

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Out of curiosity I redid bluecalm's analysis. The strongest spade holdings that I allowed were A109x and K109x, and I required opener to hold an honor (at least the queen) in each side suit. My results were close to his: 92% for 3NT and 61% for 4S.

It makes sense that 4♠ makes slightly more often in your simul as in mine ATxx/KTxx of spades were not allowed.
I wonder what are the best constraints and what is the best way to find those 3nt's.
Maybe just focusing on trump suit quality is good even without other considerations.
One more simul:

Opener is 15-17, any 4-4-3-2. Spades : Axxx/Kxxx/Qxxx/Jxxx/xxxx/QTxx/JTxx (still weaker than hanp's assumptions).

4♠ = 65%
3NT = 83%

Together with previous result about 4-3-3-3's it looks like considerable edge even without involving any kind of judgment. Just look at trumps and bid accordingly.

[kayin801]

When we only have a single stopper in one suit and are missing a club honor (especially the Q), isn't 3NT a lot worse, since we have to guess where that club honor is? DD results are gonna assume we always get the club suit right...

Of course, we might have a club loser, 2 spade losers, and another side loser in 4♠ anyway when we similarly misguess, so maybe its right.

[JLOGIC]

I agree with gnasher, I don't think this bid is about good/bad trumps more than quacky/slowish values. Typically I would expect some kind of 4432 with slowish values and an honor doubleton, and partner to convert with a prime hand.

That doesn't make 3N wrong necessarily though, the better his trumps are the more likely his hand is to be suit oriented. It's possible even though he'll get it wrong sometimes 3N will maximize our potential. When han asked me this hand I told him I thought it was close either way, but I probably wouldn't have done it. Clearly if partner will pass with bad trumps and bid with good trumps it's a good bid.

[Free]

Just a further thought: 3NT definitely isn't a 4333 imo, otherwise you'd just rebid 3NT after your puppet stayman.

[hanp]

gnasher, on Sep 1 2010, 01:37 PM, said:

There are several categories of deal where you may to play in 3NT:
(1) 4333 opposite 4333
(2) Lots of quacks, so you don't need to ruff anything
(3) Poor trumps, and an alternative source of tricks together with some fast winners.
(4) Poor trumps, and enough extra values that you have nine winners elsewhere

I assume that with (4) you just don't look for a fit.

Well, I was a passed hand, and given that partner opened 1NT with a 4333 14-count (!), in our partnership "enough extra values" is rather unlikely.

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You've said that you also wouldn't usually look for a fit with 4333.  I know that this is a minority view, but I think that's a mistake given the range of hands that people treat as balanced these days.  Anyway, that's what you do, so partner won't be thinking about (1), and he won't pass just because he's 4333.

Depending on the hand I might very well bid puppet stayman. If partner has 5 spades I'll often want to play in the 5-4 fit. But unless my hand is rather extreme (AKQx xxx xxx xxx) I wouldn't look for the 4-4 fit and if I did, I wouldn't then offer 3NT after finding it!

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Your hand falls into category (3), but partner might think it's all about (2).  If so, he'll probably pass 3NT with something like AQxx QJxx Axx Qx (where 3NT is OK but so is 4♠) but also with AQxx Qxxx AJx Qx (where 3NT is in difficulty).

Good point. (although 4S isn't a lock either)

I am not convinced it is necessarily right to look for 3NT with lots of quacks. There is a great quote by some old dutch player who said "if you are thinking about 3NT vs 4M and 3NT looks better, bid 4M, but if 4M looks better: pass". Often the hands where 3NT is better than 4M are those where we have a lot of fast tricks.

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The hands where you really want to play 3NT are the ones where you can use the clubs and don't need the spades, eg Jxxx Axxx Ax KQJ.  Will partner pass 3NT with that?  I think he won't.

I think you are right. However, the hands where partner does not pass are irrelevant. I've given enough examples of hands with which partner will certainly pass no matter whether he thinks we have (1), (2), (3) or (4), and where 3NT is much better than 4S. Of course there are also hands where 3NT will be worse, especially if they find the best lead

I've enjoyed the discussion in this thread very much, and remain unsure if I would bid 3NT in the future. Maybe my hand was too extreme and xxxx Kx Kx A1098x is better suited for this auction. I will make one last comment in response to gnasher's post:

Only when we figure out what hands partner will pass 3NT with, can we determine whether 3NT will do better or worse than 4M. It doesn't matter what partner expects from us, it only matters with which hands he will pass.

[Zelandakh]

My first thought was "crazy" but the more I've considered the more I like the idea of using 3NT here as 'weak spades, usually with a secondary trick source'. Highly anti-intuitive!

[cherdanno]

Well I guess you are really asking how to use the choice of games after finding a 4-4 fit.
I have no experience with this convention but if I were to play it tomorrow I am sure my main criterion as opener for deciding about 3NT would be shape/prime values/good trumps in this order. So I would probably pass with many hands where 3NT is bad.
I don't think partner's actual hand is a pass though.