[cloa513]

Bidding using an 4 card Major ACOL system posted from Yomuri Times- I'd say originating from The Times UK

Dealer South, Vulnerability neither.
South 1H, North 2C, South 3NT (17-19 balanced). Opponent silent.
You as West hold

♠K9
♥AJ
♦108754
♣10976

Assuming that the contract can taken down what is the best lead?

[JLOGIC]

diamond

[jukmoi]

Diamond. Hoping to find partner with ♦Kxxx, ♦Axxx, ♦KQx... Better chance I believe than ♠AQxxx or ♠QJxxx with side entry.

[cloa513]

North must hold 5 clubs and have 9HCP (I'd say anymore and its probably hopeless) and south 17 HCP.

[Free]

♦ is pretty obvious imo.

[cloa513]

If partner has Kxxx of diamonds then south has at least two diamond covers probably 3 (he has most the strength outside of clubs). South most likely has 2 or 3 spades- failing to bid it instead of 3NT. Also south is unlikely to have 4 Clubs especially with a weak doubleton of diamonds.
If partner has KQxx then south has two covers, partner might be able offer the useful J of clubs but it probably counts for naught. How does that come into the calculation.
There is no guarantee of declarer having cover in all suit- this is bidding by the numbers.

[jukmoi]

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Is this not a possible hand?

[cloa513]

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I'd say ace of hearts is best lead as partner could hold ♥KQ10xx or ♦AKxx with 2-2 break. With bidding like that, declarer's contract must be broken on the lead or there is no chance so partner must have concentrate points- he must indicate which suit gives the best chance (excluding clubs).

[Simplicity]

cloa513, on Sep 15 2010, 10:55 PM, said:

I'd say ace of hearts is best lead as partner could hold ♥KQ10xx or ♦AKxx with 2-2 break. With bidding like that, declarer's contract must be broken on the lead or there is no chance so partner must have concentrate points- he must indicate which suit gives the best chance (excluding clubs).

So to be clear RHO has shown a balanced hand we potentially have every suit stopped, abundant entries and a long suit to set up; yet you think we need to take this contract off a trick 1?! Right

Diamond looks really obvious to me.

[pooltuna]

Simplicity, on Sep 16 2010, 05:13 AM, said:

cloa513, on Sep 15 2010, 10:55 PM, said:

I'd say ace of hearts is best lead as partner could hold ♥KQ10xx or ♦AKxx with 2-2 break. With bidding like that, declarer's contract must be broken on the lead or there is no chance so partner must have concentrate points- he must indicate which suit gives the best chance (excluding clubs).

So to be clear RHO has shown a balanced hand we potentially have every suit stopped, abundant entries and a long suit to set up; yet you think we need to take this contract off a trick 1?! Right

Diamond looks really obvious to me.

Not to mention that 2♣ by North is basically insanity as it creates a lot of system problems or the OP is playing a non standard system which was not clear from the original post - Not that I know much about ACOL.

[lamford]

The ♠9. Playing partner for AJ10xx with declarer having Qxx. This should work if declarer does not have eight tricks in the minors. Yes, I know declarer can duck ...

"You cannot be serious" - Ed.