[jmcw]

N E S W
- 1♠2♠ 3♠
p p 4♥ AP

---

West led a low ♠ to the King, East continued with the Ace.

3 lines come to mind.

1. Ruff, bang down A&K of trumps if the Queen falls then play to loose no more than 2 ♦ tricks.

2. Ruff, play the ♥J trying to create and entry to dummy in order to limit ♦ loosers to 1.

3. Ruff high(8), play ♥2 toward dummy and insert the 6 if the Q does not appear, again attempting to get to dummy!

Can anyone provide some math on the chances of success and additionally, if playing line 1 and the ♥Q falls doubleton then how should ♦ be played for 2 loosers.

[MFA]

A (too?) quick analysis:

If we bang down ♥AK we need ♥Q to be double.
If lead middle heart, we need ♦A to be double, but onside as well.

So we should lead middle heart only if we estimate that the chance of sneaking past west's ♥Qxx is greater than the risk of ♦A offside.

There are some minor issues with a stiff ♥Q or ♦JT tight also to consider.

If we bang down ♥Qx double, we should play diamonds from the top rather than duck the first round, since a stiff T/J is in principle twice as likely as a stiff A.

[hanp]

Playing diamonds from the top also works if it is Jx or Tx, so it's really not close..

[Fluffy]

hanp, on Sep 21 2010, 10:12 AM, said:

Playing diamonds from the top also works if it is Jx or Tx, so it's really not close..

what I understand here is nonsense, so I supose I missunderstood , Jx and 10x are irrelevant.

[hanp]

This morning it was a 5-2 fit.

[pooltuna]

hanp, on Sep 21 2010, 05:12 AM, said:

Playing diamonds from the top also works if it is Jx or Tx, so it's really not close..

yes but the objective is to lose only 1♦ .

[jmcw]

MFA, on Sep 21 2010, 05:02 AM, said:

A (too?) quick analysis:

If we bang down ♥AK we need ♥Q to be double.
If lead middle heart, we need ♦A to be double, but onside as well.

So we should lead middle heart only if we estimate that the chance of sneaking past west's ♥Qxx is greater than the risk of ♦A offside.

There are some minor issues with a stiff ♥Q or ♦JT tight also to consider.

If we bang down ♥Qx double, we should play diamonds from the top rather than duck the first round, since a stiff T/J is in principle twice as likely as a stiff A.

If you cannot get to dummy to lead a ♦ toward the KQ then you will loose at least 2 ♦ trick unless the JT are dub.

[MFA]

jmcw, on Sep 22 2010, 02:13 AM, said:

MFA, on Sep 21 2010, 05:02 AM, said:

A (too?) quick analysis:

If we bang down ♥AK we need ♥Q to be double.
If lead middle heart, we need ♦A to be double, but onside as well.

So we should lead middle heart only if we estimate that the chance of sneaking past west's ♥Qxx is greater than the risk of ♦A offside.

There are some minor issues with a stiff ♥Q or ♦JT tight also to consider.

If we bang down ♥Qx double, we should play diamonds from the top rather than duck the first round, since a stiff T/J is in principle twice as likely as a stiff A.

If you cannot get to dummy to lead a ♦ toward the KQ then you will loose at least 2 ♦ trick unless the JT are dub.

Que?
I think I did figure that part out...