[inquiry]

Scoring: MP

Submitted by inquiry

Bidding Script: EW do not bid

Another can you get into the minor suit 4-4 if you keep bidding and should you?

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[hrothgar]

Our auction to 6♣ went

1N - 2♥
2♠ - 3♣
3♠ - 5♠
6♣

In retrospect, I think that I (North) was way too aggressive even if it did work

[JLOGIC]

6C looks very appealing on a superficial glance. However, imagine the play on a heart lead:

You win and pull trumps and play a spade to the queen. They win and play a heart, making you ruff. Now you cannot play off your 3 diamonds pitching a spade, and then ruff your spade, there is no entry to dummy.

So on a heart lead we need 3-2 clubs, 3-2 spades, and the SK onside which is about 23 %. You can probably improve upon this slightly, but that is the jist of it.

On a diamond lead you are in better shape, but you still need 3-2 clubs and spades not 4-1 with the king offside.

[Free]

A ♥ lead is indeed difficult, but still there are more chances than Justin tells us.

So you take ♥A, ♣ to the K, ♠ to the Q.
- If it loses to East's King, you need 3-2 in the blacks. (Justin's 23%)
- If it loses to West's King and they continue a ♥, you ruff in dummy, play ♣A, draw ♦s discarding a ♠ and play ♠A and another ♠. You need the 3rd ♠ with the 3rd ♣ in the same hand, but you still have ♣Q as an entry.

So ♠K doesn't need to be onside, although it helps a lot

[hanp]

Yeah I also think it is a bit better than 23%.

[peachy]

6C is not as good as it first looks and even if the panel thinks it should be top score, it should not get more than 1 more than 4S. We had a weak NT auction 1N-2H-2S-3C-4S. I think it is debatable, at least, whether 4S was the right call.

[inquiry]

Six clubs is much better than 23% (simulations suggest around 60%), but is not the best contract (it is the best slam, but slams are not that great).

On this one, you need to stay in spades, 4S is virtually cold. The contracts were:

4SN hanp/jlall
4SN bid_em_up/TylerE
4SN jdonn/gib
6CS gnasher/catch22
6Cs awn/elianna
6CS ant590/cryzeejim
6CN Hrothgar/Free
6CN TimG/TgoodwinSr
6CN wackojack/flycycle
6SS MBodell/Javabean
6SS peachy/Ig62
6SN sohcahtoa/east4evil
6SN olegru/driver733
6SN bluecalm/redds
3NN Karlson/threenobob
7CS cherdano/rogerclee

Scores:
4S = 9
6C = 7
5S = 7
6S = 5
5C = 4
3N = 3
4N = 2
7C = 0

[JLOGIC]

inquiry, on Sep 30 2010, 09:28 PM, said:

Six clubs is much better than 23% (simulations suggest around 60%), but is not the best contract (it is the best slam, but slams are not that great).

60 % combining any lead I presume? I was trying to analyze on only a heart lead because I don't know what % they lead a heart... and I acknowledged I probably didn't find the best line in 6C but can't imagine there being a much better line than frees. My only point was that seemed like the "obvious" line and we ended up with entry problems

[TimG]

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 04:13 AM, said:

60 % combining any lead I presume?

I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means.

[jdonn]

TimG, on Oct 1 2010, 07:10 AM, said:

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 04:13 AM, said:

60 % combining any lead I presume?

I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means.

If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. But I'm sure it involved lots of guessing of Kx of spades offside so probably not.

[Wackojack]

I recklessly drove the auction to 6♣ because I could not resist using the system toys that were available after having taken the trouble to learn them.

1♦ 10-13 bal 2♣ relay
2♥ 4 2NT relay
3♣ 4 4♣ minorwood
4♠ 2-Q 6♣
pass

[hrothgar]

jdonn, on Oct 1 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time.

What he said:

If 6♣ is really a 60% slam, it should be outscoring the game contracts

[cherdanno]

hrothgar, on Oct 1 2010, 11:00 AM, said:

jdonn, on Oct 1 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time.

What he said:

If 6♣ is really a 60% slam, it should be outscoring the game contracts

That's does not follow. When 6S is down, 4S ALWAYS gets a matchpoint from those pairs, whereas 6C sometimes only gets half a matchpoint.

[hanp]

Makes you wonder if these guys have ever played matchpoints...

[TimG]

jdonn, on Oct 1 2010, 09:52 AM, said:

TimG, on Oct 1 2010, 07:10 AM, said:

JLOGIC, on Oct 1 2010, 04:13 AM, said:

60 % combining any lead I presume?

I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means.

If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. But I'm sure it involved lots of guessing of Kx of spades offside so probably not.

Yes, I expect it is much worse single dummy.

[JLOGIC]

Double dummy is a terrible way to evaluate how often 6C makes here imo, double dummy we always pick up Kx on our left, always pull trumps and pick up spades when RHO has stiff T/J or JT doubleton, etc etc. That is a huge edge that we don't have single dummy.