[Phil]

Overcalling is terrible. Raising is normal. I won't give North any blame, but I will toss 10% over to 'bad luck'. Not because you went for 800, but because 3N doesn't make.

I don't accept the 'you have to pay off sometimes", because overcalling 1♠ has so many ways to lose. I'd probably double but I don't hate pass either.

[HeartA]

I am not against 4 card over call. But holding such a weak 4-card and 4333 distribution, 1♠ is completely insane. I blame 80% to South, 10% bad luck. 10% to North: weak hand with the 1NT warning from west.

[apjames]

I would pass the south hand, but double is better that 1♠.
South gets most of the blame, but north gets some for playing with south. Agree that 2♠ is very normal.

[jukmoi]

The trouble with 2♠ is not that 2♠ is likely to be too costly. The trouble is that South will expect more and will either overcompete or when 3♠ is making he will bid game going down again. As for getting them to tree level I do not think that they are going down.

Maybe I am wrong but as I see it 2♠ has very little upside to it. Does anyone really think 2♠ making will buy it? Do you really expect to make 4♠ if South bids it?

[Flameous]

I give 50% to south, 10% to north and rest to bad luck.

South has three options, P, X and 1♠, although I find the two other bids more sensible, I have no strong objection with 1♠ and if the suit also had J, I'd give it real consideration.

For the norths side, I strongly prefer defending 1NT when opps are vul and I don't have shortness. With 4 trumps and working doubleton it might be bit overdoing in here passing, but I'd probably try that. However there is nothing wrong in bidding 2♠, sometimes it's just good to look for the plus from defending than declaring.

The real cost now of course came from that 5-0 trump break and that opps don't even have game. Such is bridge.

[nige1]

Free, on 2010-November-21, 15:02, said:

Help me settle an argument, and assign the blame
Imps
-3 for 800

---

IMO Bad luck = 70%. South = 30%. North 0%,
IMO, a four-card suit overcall should include three honours, so South is slightly to blame.

[hotShot]

jukmoi, on 2010-November-23, 04:04, said:

The trouble with 2♠ is not that 2♠ is likely to be too costly. The trouble is that South will expect more and will either overcompete or when 3♠ is making he will bid game going down again. As for getting them to tree level I do not think that they are going down.

Maybe I am wrong but as I see it 2♠ has very little upside to it. Does anyone really think 2♠ making will buy it? Do you really expect to make 4♠ if South bids it?

You are addressing something that won't happen.
North can expect opener to have 12+ HCP and responder to have 6+ HCP, so he knows his partner is in the range of the agreed minimum and 17 HCP.
South can expect opener to have 12+ HCP and responder to have 6+ HCP looking at his own 13 HCP he knows that North won't have more than 9 HCP.

Both North and South can see that this is a partscore battle.
You win in bridge if your opps make wrong decisions,
you win more often, if you make sure that opps decisions are difficult.
2♠ usually makes Easts decision more difficult, unfortunately not on this board.

[Fluffy]

So because opponents are suposed to have their bids and partner knows it I don't have to have my bid?

If partner is gonna trust opponents more thna me, he probably should change and find another partner (one of the opponents he trusts for example)

[ArtK78]

Strongly dislike 1♠ on such a weak suit. I don't even know if I want a spade led.

Dislike the raise to 2♠. More likely to mislead partner than cause problems for the opps.

[gwnn]

"trusting to have your bid" is not the point. Suppose your partner knows that he makes game opposite a 9 count and doesnt opposite a 6 count (this is a simplified argument with simple numbers). If it had gone 1S-p-2S, partner can expect more or less 25% for each of 6,7,8,9. However, when both opponents have acted, the odds change dramatically, probably to 50-40-15-5 or something like that. Basically 9 would usually mean that opponents have rock bottom of their range and probably must have stretched also. Of course psyching from their part is also possible but I don't think it affects the situation much. So partner can trust my bids but he should know that more likely than not I have a minimum. Anyway, sure, sometimes when you have a minimum partner (considering everything) willstill overbid to a game. That's in the job description and does not mean that you should never have a minimum. Sometimes both players take the best calls on the balance of probabilities and the result is bad or even horrible. (Please note that I am not referring to the two hands in the opening post, just defending theraise from N)

[mgoetze]

gwnn, on 2010-November-23, 08:12, said:

If it had gone 1S-p-2S, partner can expect more or less 25% for each of 6,7,8,9.

I am not convinced of this.

[gwnn]

I'm not convinced of this either. There are a lot of factors involved. But the point is that the probability of him having 9 is less when everybody is bidding than when nobody is bidding.

[Fluffy]

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6

[mgoetze]

Fluffy, on 2010-November-23, 10:06, said:

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6

I guess this proves that the bidding wasn't 1♠-p-2♠

[gwnn]

I know that but we have 4 trumps. All I was saying was that partner should realise that we'll almost always have a minimum here. That's more or less what hotshot was saying - partner shouldn't try for game very often. And that he shouldn't disregard opposing bidding just because they're opponents.

[hrothgar]

I appear to be one of the few in the "***** happens" camp...

I've gotten a lot of very good results

1. Overcalling with hands like South's
2. Raising to 2♠ on hands like North's

And, on occassion, I've gotten very bad results doing the same.
Personally, i think that the pluses outweight the minuses.
I'm not gonna get too worked up when if/when the card gods aren't smiling...

To me, the fundamental issue on the hand is about variance:

Overcalling 1♠ is a high variance style.
If you're playing this style, you shouldn't be overly concerned about individual hands.
Its all about long term trends...

With all this said and done, if I were to attach blame, I'd primarily place it on North.

Both opponents have had an opportunity to clarify values and describe their hands. Preempting in Spades isn't quite as attractive as one might think.

RHO advanced 1NT over 1♠. He has limited his hand and announced that he has trump. We're a bit more vulnerable to a double.

North holds a quacky 4333. The 4th trump is nice, but there isn't that much offensive potential.

As I said, I don't have a serious problem with either bid. However, if I had to place blame I dislike the raise more than the overcall.

[mtvesuvius]

Richard:

• North has a 4324 hand
  
• Raising to 2♠ seems completely normal unless you overcall on total crap (which I guess you do?)
  
• Although sh*t happens, this is an awful lot of sh*t happening IMO.
  
• What kind of good results usually come from overcalling bad 4 card suits that you don't want led when you are vulnerable? Please explain.
  
• RHO would also bid this way with Kxx♠ or Kx even.

[pooltuna]

Fluffy, on 2010-November-23, 10:06, said:

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6

0.5 for the T; 0.5 for the two 9s; 1 for the doubleton; and the other 4 are HCP

[wank]

Disagree with free. Why is this in the SAYC and 2/1 forum?

[hrothgar]

mtvesuvius, on 2010-November-23, 11:13, said:

Richard:

• North has a 4324 hand
  
• Raising to 2♠ seems completely normal unless you overcall on total crap (which I guess you do?)
  
• Although sh*t happens, this is an awful lot of sh*t happening IMO.
  
• What kind of good results usually come from overcalling bad 4 card suits that you don't want led when you are vulnerable? Please explain.
  
• RHO would also bid this way with Kxx♠ or Kx even.

Sorry about the comment about the 4=3=3=3 hand.

I normally play a bidding system in which the South hand is a clear cut 1♥ opening (where 1♥ is a transfer to Spades) and the North hand would most likely raise to 2♠ (some would prefer a pass)

I find is difficult to get worked up about overcalling a hand where I would open.

As for the gains:

You've forced the opponents out of their constructive bidding sequences
You've gobbled up the entire 1 level