[Phil]

hrothgar, on 2010-November-23, 11:09, said:

I appear to be one of the few in the "***** happens" camp...

I've gotten a lot of very good results

1. Overcalling with hands like South's
2. Raising to 2♠ on hands like North's

And, on occassion, I've gotten very bad results doing the same.
Personally, i think that the pluses outweight the minuses.
I'm not gonna get too worked up when if/when the card gods aren't smiling...

To me, the fundamental issue on the hand is about variance:

Overcalling 1♠ is a high variance style.
If you're playing this style, you shouldn't be overly concerned about individual hands.
Its all about long term trends...

With all this said and done, if I were to attach blame, I'd primarily place it on North.

Both opponents have had an opportunity to clarify values and describe their hands. Preempting in Spades isn't quite as attractive as one might think.

RHO advanced 1NT over 1♠. He has limited his hand and announced that he has trump. We're a bit more vulnerable to a double.

North holds a quacky 4333. The 4th trump is nice, but there isn't that much offensive potential.

As I said, I don't have a serious problem with either bid. However, if I had to place blame I dislike the raise more than the overcall.

I'm appreciating your bridge-related posts more now than I have in years past, but I think you've slid off the road here:

Opening a moscito-style 1♥ systemically is fine, just as in any 4cM based system. However, once they have opened, overcalling frequently serves as a defensive tool. There are plenty of hands that I would open and not overcall, and many more that I would overcall and not open. The South hand is a pile of defense, without a lot of offense. However, I have convinced myself that competing on reasonable 4333's (actually JL convinced me) is a good idea, and this is a good example. I don't think spades is necessarily our final resting place, since there is a great chance that a red suit is better than spades.

Furthermore, you don't really want a spade lead against NT (unless partner tables it themselves). If partner leads any other suit, you welcome this.

If you are playing with a poor partner that cannot declare to save their life, then 1♠ has a lot going for it. You probably don't mind a spade lead against a suit contract playing with someone bad, since its better than a heart lead.

I get the 'high variance' idea, and that's fine, but what exactly are the big wins for 1♠? Are you simply trying to play contra the other table to generate swings? I'd be interested to see why you think 1♠ is better than double, although its easy to see how it might work better than pass.

[hrothgar]

Phil, on 2010-November-23, 13:12, said:

I get the 'high variance' idea, and that's fine, but what exactly are the big wins for 1♠? Are you simply trying to play contra the other table to generate swings? I'd be interested to see why you think 1♠ is better than double, although its easy to see how it might work better than pass.

The only reason that I prefer 1♠ to double is the amount of bidding space that it consumes.

A double increases the bidding space available to the opponents.
1♠ overcall decreases it significantly.

[In reality, this isn't completely fair comparison... If I start will a double, partner might be able to bouncing the bidding in any of the remaining suits. If I overcall 1♠, partner can only raise spades. Even so, I prefer 1 Spade)

Please note: If the hand had been a 3=4=3=3 with the major suits switched, I almost certainly prefer double to 1♥

[mgoetze]

hrothgar, on 2010-November-23, 13:18, said:

Even so, I prefer double

Good, so we all agree actually.

[hrothgar]

mgoetze, on 2010-November-23, 14:19, said:

Good, so we all agree actually.

Typo corrected

[bid_em_up]

I can't comment on South's bidding without officially earning my first warning, so I will refrain from doing so.

[TimG]

hrothgar, on 2010-November-23, 11:36, said:

I normally play a bidding system in which the South hand is a clear cut 1♥ opening (where 1♥ is a transfer to Spades) and the North hand would most likely raise to 2♠ (some would prefer a pass)

I find is difficult to get worked up about overcalling a hand where I would open.

As for the gains:

You've forced the opponents out of their constructive bidding sequences
You've gobbled up the entire 1 level

The situation where you open and raise is very different from the situation where you overcall. When you open and raise before the opponents have had a chance to say anything other than pass is much more favorable to your side than when they have opened. Likewise, once responder has been able to define his hand narrowly with 1NT, the advantages of the raise almost go away. You're not taking them out of their constructive bidding comfort zone, they've likely said what they want to say and if they haven't, they won't have much trouble saying it now.

hrothgar said:

I've gotten a lot of very good results

1. Overcalling with hands like South's

I challenge you to produce "a lot" of examples of good results achieved when you've overcalled 1♠ on an indifferent suit and a 4=3=3=3 hand. I suspect that you haven't had the opportunity to overcall on "a lot" of such hands, much less encountered enough such hands to build a significant set of data.

[TimG]

hrothgar, on 2010-November-23, 13:18, said:

A double increases the bidding space available to the opponents.
1♠ overcall decreases it significantly.

They opened 1♦. A 1♠ overcall takes away a 1♥ and 1♠ response while adding the possibility of doubling.

So, if they would have responded 1♥, they have a double available; if they would have responded 1♠ we have saved them the trouble (and they have NT bids available to show balanced hands with spades).

What significant bidding space have you taken from the opponents?

[hrothgar]

TimG, on 2010-November-23, 17:22, said:

I challenge you to produce "a lot" of examples of good results achieved when you've overcalled 1♠ on an indifferent suit and a 4=3=3=3 hand. I suspect that you haven't had the opportunity to overcall on "a lot" of such hands, much less encountered enough such hands to build a significant set of data.

Hi Tim

I don't have a corpus of 4333 hands where I overcalled with a mediocre four card suit.
Don't even have any 4432 hands where I overcalled with a mediocre 4 card suit.

With this said and done, as recollection serves, I have overcalled 1M plenty of times with mediocre 4 card suits.
As I recall, these paid off more often than not.

FWIW, Sue does much the same.
I don't think its surprising that Free posted this original example.

[hotShot]

TimG, on 2010-November-23, 17:29, said:

What significant bidding space have you taken from the opponents?

RHO opened and you hold 13 HCP, this means that with a probability close to 1, you 2 hold 25+ HCP, leaving 15- HCP for LHO and your partner. With some confidence you can expect LHO to have 6-10 HCP, reducing his probable bidding space to:
a nonforcing ♦ raise, 1♥, 1♠, 1NT.
By bidding 1♠ you take away half of that.
Now opps gain dbl as additional bid, and if their agreement is that dbl is equivalent to 1♥ you only took away 25% of the bidding space. But a common agreement is that dbl is negative or support in this situation, which means they lose some of the meaning of the 1♥ reply.

It is a very common agreement that 1NT requires a stopper in opponents suit. If you overcall a 4 card suit that has 2 of the top 3 honors, the chance that LHO has a stopper is close to 1/3. With this agreement opps lose a lot of their 1NT bid too.

With this hand however missing 2 top honors the loss of the 1NT bid is smaller.
If you take OP's hand and change South ♦A with Wests ♠A replacing it with a small card so that the shape remains,
South will still be down 3, but it will be harder for West to bid 1NT, perhaps he would bid 2♦ or pass. Depending on Wests bid, East is less likely to dbl 2♠.

[TimG]

hotShot, I don't necessarily disagree with what you have said, but I think you also need to factor in consideration that taking away the opponents' bidding space is sometimes beneficial to them. When responder has a weak hand (6-7 HCP) it may be best for them if they are not in the auction and our interference may make it easier for them to get out.

[han]

I think the 1S overcall is losing bridge. Whether you get worked up over that depends on how much you want to win. Yes of course the 1S overcall will sometimes give you good results. Any random bid will sometimes give you good results. But this kind of bidding will in my experience in the long run be losing imps and matchpoints.

Hrothgar's argument that because he opens 1H on similar hands he doesn't mind the 1S overcall is completely nonsensical. I sometimes open 1D on xxx but that doesn't mean I will overcall 1D with that.

[hrothgar]

han, on 2010-November-24, 15:31, said:

Hrothgar's argument that because he opens 1H on similar hands he doesn't mind the 1S overcall is completely nonsensical. I sometimes open 1D on xxx but that doesn't mean I will overcall 1D with that.

Some would say that there is a significant difference between a 1M opening that is designed to show a major and a 1m opening whose purpose is to deny holding a 5 card major.

[awm]

I'll just comment that I've made quite a few four-card overcalls like this one. My experience has been that it works pretty well when non-vulnerable and is generally bad when vulnerable. I've also not been impressed with the results from doubling with 4333 hands on minimum strength. I'd pass the south hand at these colors, and give south most of the blame for the bad results.

[mike777]

Free, on 2010-November-21, 15:02, said:

Help me settle an argument, and assign the blame

Imps

---

-3 for 800

hate one spade

[Free]

I see some people prefer Dbl to 1♠ (as do I). What if the auction went:
1♦-Dbl-RDbl-1♠
p-p-Dbl-p
p-p
for -500. Would that be unlucky or still mostly South's fault?

[cloa513]

l milne, on 2010-November-22, 13:16, said:

Agree with others that 2♠ is completely normal. 4 trumps, some shape, spades... not raising would be criminal.

I probably wouldn't even double with the South hand. All this talk about getting out of the auction quickly makes me wonder why others don't pass as well. Of course double is a lot better than 1♠, but I still prefer pass to either. The upside seems small and the potential downside, if opps redouble or partner makes an ill-timed competitive bid, is fairly large.

I don't think doubleton is good shape with Qxxx trump- the jack are pretty much worthless. Qxxx trumps and singleton is OK.

[hotShot]

Free, on 2010-November-25, 02:24, said:

I see some people prefer Dbl to 1♠ (as do I). What if the auction went:
1♦-Dbl-RDbl-1♠
p-p-Dbl-p
p-p
for -500. Would that be unlucky or still mostly South's fault?

---

The south hand has 3 negative aspects to much HCP in opponents suit, unsuitable shape and the ♠ suit is one honor to weak.
By doubling you get rid of the bad spades aspect and a 5-0 trump break is very unlucky.
But the 5 HCP you hold in ♦ still don't help to develop one of partners suits to a source of tricks and you won't ruff or develop a length in your hand.


Take a look at this modified deal:

---

The ♠are 4-1 now and South is still down 3, it's not the 5-0 trump break that ruins your score.

[gwnn]

Then it would be unlucky. But I think it's weird to assume that West bid 1N over 1S (when there's a good chance of defending 1♠x) but he's happy to redouble when he only has one suit to penalise (and it's quite unlikely from his point of view that opps would end up in spades). I think it's a mistake to conceal a 5 card major over 1m-x-?. He even has a partial fit for his partner.

[phil_20686]

I really don't like either bid. When south has a normal over call like ATxxx AQx xxx xx I might escape for -1, but even with the heart finesse working and picking up the spade suit for one loser I have no chance to make, and that seems like a typical result to me. Nearly everyone I know plays 1N in this competitive sequence as 8-11. I don't see any value in bidding 2S at imps when opponents s have denied a heart fit and 3N seems unlikely to survive a spade lead if partner has an outside trick. At MP it just seems even worse as the probability of 2S seems high. If opponents to have the points for 3N then I am just giving them an extra chance to avoid a non making game and penalise me instead. If they dont I am sparing them a nasty partscore decision or play by putting my partner in a contract that likely has no play. As I understand it americans are a bit more conservative about what they overcall on, so perhaps they are prepared to countenance 2s here.

I don't really fancy 4 card overcalls generally, particularly at imps. They dilute your partners ability to make the right decision if lho makes a pre-emptive bid. 1d (1s) 3d and partner has 4 card support he will stretch here in case you are making game, this could easily fetch an axe for a trivial 800 when you were virtually beating 3d in your own hand. When you make a 4 card overcall and hit partner with a balanced hand and 4 card support like on this board you have scored a win. However, it seems typical (of the unsuitable hand south has) that even if the cards are friendly you have no play. You are unlucky because it would be hard for them to axe you when spades are 3-2, but you are probably going for 500 even then. With maximum luck you might escape for 200.

50% north for raising too aggressively (IMO) and 90% south for a terrible 1!s overcall.

EDIT: FWIW I think the south hand is a fairly obvious pass. I don't really like to dble with xxx hearts and such a defensive holding in rho's suit. A t/o dble here can often scare partner away from 3N when its right and play in 4h instead. Also, I think it might just be tempting partner to make the wrong decisions when I have no real offence in any suit. I would dble if I had fewer points in diamonds. KTxx AJx xxx KQx is an obvious dble to me.

[han]

Free, on 2010-November-25, 02:24, said:

I see some people prefer Dbl to 1♠ (as do I). What if the auction went:
1♦-Dbl-RDbl-1♠
p-p-Dbl-p
p-p
for -500. Would that be unlucky or still mostly South's fault?

I think it would be time to congratulate the opponents on their excellent judgement and agreements.