Hand Evaluation - NAP
#21
Posted 2011-December-22, 17:16
#22
Posted 2011-December-22, 17:18
mike777, on 2011-December-22, 16:10, said:
As a nonexpert I always thought at MP one should not bid slams without solid reasons that it should be almost cold or at least the odds are heavily in your favor.
I wonder just how good should the odds be to bid slams at MP? How do we calculate that on this deal?
On this one people are blasting or girding their loins and in some sense hoping.
In any event they were right, slam makes.
Suppose that we're trying to decide between 6♣ and 3NT, and we think 6NT is probably a poor contract.
If we think that the entire field is in 3NT or 6♣, and will play the cards as well as we do, we should bid 6♣ is we think it's over 50%.
Some reasons for being more cautious than that are:
- We think some of the field will be in partscore or the wrong game.
- We think some of the field will go down in 6NT.
- We think our card play is above average.
Any of these means that bidding slam has more to lose and less to gain.
#23
Posted 2011-December-22, 17:49
The 4 session pairs or the Calcutta at the LA regional might be better, but not by much.
Not sure if that factors into your decision making.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#24
Posted 2011-December-24, 13:25
1♣:2N
3♥:4♣
4♦*:4♥*
4♠*:5♦*
6♣
4♦ kickback, 4♥ 1 or 4
4♠ queen ask, 5♦ yes, and the ♦K
#25
Posted 2011-December-24, 14:59
jillybean, on 2011-December-24, 13:25, said:
1♣:2N
3♥:4♣
4♦*:4♥*
4♠*:5♦*
6♣
4♦ kickback, 4♥ 1 or 4
4♠ queen ask, 5♦ yes, and the ♦K
Ijust did with a pard also.....pard bid 2c inverted......hated the 2nt chosen at the table.
if forced to bid 2nt he also bid 3nt he noted this hand is really perfect cards.
#26
Posted 2011-December-29, 10:08
Jxx Qxx Kxx AQxx
A little rushed at the moment so without much thought (but I think it gets the job done)
1C = 15+ nat/bal or 18+ any
... - 1S = no 4 card major, GF
1N = relay
... - 2H = balanced
2S = relay
... - 3H = 3334
3S = relay
... - 4D = extras, 3 controls
4H = relay
... - 4N = club control, no spade control
6N
#28
Posted 2011-December-29, 11:57
jmcw, on 2011-December-29, 11:31, said:
Maybe someone does. But responder has only invited game, and having to pass 2NT with long clubs and a known 3+ (probably 4)fit instead of play 3C seems wrong.
#29
Posted 2011-December-29, 12:28
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#30
Posted 2011-December-29, 16:18
Phil, on 2011-December-29, 12:28, said:
Yes, of course. 2NT forcing is a good idea; it just doesn't happen to be what the OP gave us to work with.