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Depth of the hole Keep digging?

#1 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 15:31



You play weak NT, which is why you didn't fancy opening in 3rd seat
1C = 5-card majors, either 12-14 balanced without 4 diamonds, or natural, or any good 17-bad 20 balanced without a 5-card major
1H = spades
dbl = lead directional
redbl = either strong balanced with HHx or better in hearts, or a club/heart reverse.

OK, you are in a hole.
Now what, if anything?
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#2 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 15:46

1S, I don't think this is close.

If we can take the same number of tricks this is a dramatic improvement (-200 into -720, -500 into -1120), if we can take one fewer trick this is a good trade (-200 into +200, -500 into -720, -800 into -1120), and if we can take two fewer tricks it's not a disaster (-800 into -720, -1100 into -1120, but -500 into +200).

It might even be right to run if we were 3433, but I'm way less confident about that. Also, even if it were close in theory, I would just much rather be declaring this kind of contract than defending it.
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#3 User is offline   Statto 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 21:13

Pass looks tempting, as were not bid naturally, and I can't find the re-redouble card in the box. But defending 1 looks hopeless. I'll start running with 1.
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#4 User is offline   daveharty 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 21:35

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2012-April-22, 15:31, said:

Now what, if anything?

Slip the caddy five bucks to pull the fire alarm.
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#5 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 21:59

Also we will be better off in 2hx if we can't take 7 tricks with hearts as trumps, so that's another reason to run. Sometimes 1nx is also ok. Passing in effect just says you think they are going down a reasonable percentage of the time, which I can't believe is true.
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#6 User is offline   frank0 

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Posted 2012-April-22, 23:04

Maybe it's not your concern or you've already noticed, but lead-directing at 1 level is very dangerous. It's opposite of overcall, where the lower the level the less likely you're getting double. The lower the level you make lead-directing double, the more likely opps are willing to play redouble contract with few trumps but lots of HCP.

I run to 1S in this sequence.
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#7 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2012-April-23, 02:01

Even playing a weak NT you do not promise a rebid opposite a passed hand so I am not sure why opening 1 and passing any response does not come into consideration. I also dislike the double, at the one level I think this should look more like an overcall than purely for the lead. Having reached this point I think the best we can do is accept a bad board in 1X rather than the total disaster 1XX rates to be. Roger's numbers look like a pretty compelling argument to back this up.
(-: Zel :-)
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#8 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2012-April-23, 06:59

The issue now is damage control -- you're going for a number.

1 or 1 NT look to be the best options to minimize the carnage.

I don't see what's so wrong with bidding a weak 1 NT in 3rd seat with this hand. If partner uses Stayman, you'll get to the right strain. If partner makes an invitational bid, you'll decline. And if partner decides to push to 3 NT with a 12 count that it just didn't seem right to open, you may have a decent play for it.
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#9 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2012-April-23, 07:34

View Postrmnka447, on 2012-April-23, 06:59, said:

I don't see what's so wrong with bidding a weak 1 NT in 3rd seat with this hand. If partner uses Stayman, you'll get to the right strain. If partner makes an invitational bid, you'll decline. And if partner decides to push to 3 NT with a 12 count that it just didn't seem right to open, you may have a decent play for it.

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#10 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-April-23, 08:49

I don't see why we would expect to take the same number of tricks defending hearts as we would playing spades since RHO's 's>'s. I would normally expect a difference of two.

If we take six tricks in hearts and four in spades, it is -720/-800. 5 and 3 are -1120/-1100. 4 and 2 are -1520/-1400.

However, the nice thing about bidding 1, is that partner is still in the game. He might be able to do something more useful, like 2. Let him clean up my mess for a change.

I'm bidding 1.
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