[paulg]

---

Scoring is IMPs.

You are playing the Multi-Landy defence to one notrump, with double showing a four-card major with five-card minor OR a very strong balanced hand. Most would assess your opponents as honest citizens and, though opening light is easily possible, unlikely to psych one notrump (although they were seventeen imps down with twenty boards to play).

Your call?

[phil_20686]

Ill try 4H. No strong feeling on what to do. Everything looks dangerous.

[billw55]

Let's see. I am vul. My suit is crap. Ops could have up to 24 high card points. Ops are only threatening to make 140 or 170.

I think 4H is near batshit crazy. I pass.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass.

If they did bid game at the other table, they have started with a weak two.
I am fine with Pass.

I would give them 20HCP, that gives partner an opening bid.
He did not double, which means he will have a bald. hand, i.e. he has a weak NT.

Do I want to be in game oppossite a weak NT? Maybe, maybe not.
Do I know, what to do, if they bid 4S over 4H? Do I believe, 4S goes down?
How will I feel, when they double 4H?

I will pass, if they win 10IMPs back, so be it.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[ArtK78]

billw55, on 2012-September-25, 08:09, said:

Let's see. I am vul. My suit is crap. Ops could have up to 24 high card points. Ops are only threatening to make 140 or 170.

I think 4H is near batshit crazy. I pass.

Eloquently stated.

Although, the difference between "batshit crazy" and "courageous call" is whether the result is -1100 or +620.

I would pass and would not seriously consider bidding here.

[paulg]

P_Marlowe, on 2012-September-25, 08:16, said:

I would give them 20HCP, that gives partner an opening bid.
He did not double, which means he will have a bald. hand, i.e. he has a weak NT.

Given I expect partner has two or three spades, all his opportunities to enter the auction have been highly risky. In particular, doubling three spades for takeout in a live auction seems even crazier than some believe bidding in the balancing position is. So I don't think this is a sound assumption.

However you may be right that Pass is comfortably best.

[JLOGIC]

I would usually bid, it might depend on how happy RHO seemed to pass 3S. Willing to look stupid, we need very little for game but if we catch the wrong hand we could go for a lot obviously.

[JLOGIC]

I think this is a really good hand, most people would probably pass without even thinking of bidding irl

[phil_20686]

I don't really understand the pessimism. 1100 seems unlikely.

Sure 500 vs nothing is a live possibility, but so is +620 vs -170.

Partner could have an ordinary hand like Qxx Axx Kxxx Kxxx, On friendly breaks you are losing a heart a diamond and a club. Partner occasionally will have a good hand for you:

xxx
AKxx
Ax
KQxx

You are sad that you could not reach slam. Some may double 1N with this, but I would not in these methods.

if partner has 3-1 in the majors, he will surely XX, guessing you to have a lot of side suit shape to have passed twice and backed in at the 4 level. I might then get to a making 5C.

Sure, this is the optimists case for 4H, but I think the danger is overstated here.

[phil_20686]

JLOGIC, on 2012-September-25, 09:30, said:

I would usually bid, it might depend on how happy RHO seemed to pass 3S. Willing to look stupid, we need very little for game but if we catch the wrong hand we could go for a lot obviously.

Was beginning to think I was crazy on this hand, being the only vote for bidding

[paulg]

JLOGIC, on 2012-September-25, 09:30, said:

I would usually bid, it might depend on how happy RHO seemed to pass 3S. Willing to look stupid, we need very little for game but if we catch the wrong hand we could go for a lot obviously.

RHO is on the other side of the screen, so difficult to tell

[Phil]

JLOGIC, on 2012-September-25, 09:31, said:

I think this is a really good hand, most people would probably pass without even thinking of bidding irl

I bid, but I would much rather have my ♠A in another suit, since this means more of LHO's hand is in spades and less of it is in defense.

I expect about a balanced 12 from partner and our finesses are working. Par could easily be in 4♠ x'd, and some want to let them out in 3??

[aguahombre]

Phil, on 2012-September-25, 10:00, said:

I bid, but I would much rather have my ♠A in another suit, since this means more of LHO's hand is in spades and less of it is in defense.

I expect about a balanced 12 from partner and our finesses are working. Par could easily be in 4♠ x'd, and some want to let them out in 3??

Finally this "Phil" has checked in. He prefers reference to sheep, rather than man or mouse.

I definitely would not "pass without thinking" IRL as Justin suggests most would. But while bidding 4H I would be considering "sheepish", when they change their minds and bid a making 4S.

But, the main reason for bidding 4H would be the fun of demonstrating why all three others at the table should not have been folding up their bid cards and putting them away already.

[gszes]

i had a chance to bid hearts the previous round (x) when i needed only 6 tricks to
make my bid effective. I apparently decided the risk of a poor lead was not worth
the reward of a possible +620.

We now appear to be slated for no worse than -170 and suddenly the reward of +620
when we need TEN tricks for our bid to be effective seems like too much to pass up??

LHO has announced a super max there is a fairly good chance p has around ten
balanced HCP (at least we hope they are balanced if we bid 4h). The odds of making
4h are not much greater than before with a much bigger risk factor. We need to get
over our aversion of soliciting partners help. X 2h immediately and if p does not respond
kindly over 3s and you cannot contain your enthusiasm at least you can bid 4c to show
your second suit. Once in a while 2hx will get p off to a bad lead but we will be able to
compete far more effectively when our risk is for 6 tricks and not ten tricks.

FWIW pass

[JLOGIC]

paulg, on 2012-September-25, 09:54, said:

RHO is on the other side of the screen, so difficult to tell

Not really, since partner isnt going to be thinking about bidding in that spot, if it comes back slow it was RHO

[paulg]

gszes, on 2012-September-25, 11:18, said:

LHO has announced a super max ....

LHO has announced a minimum with four spades (I did make this the alert comment, sorry you missed it).

[ArtK78]

I missed the explanation of the alert to 3♠. This makes bidding 4♥ more tempting, as the opps have to have at least 9 spades between them but the lower limit of their HCP strength is less.

I still would not bid 4♥, but I can understand why others would consider bidding.

By the way, the -1100 in my prior post was a bit of an exaggeration, but going minus a large number is certainly a strong possibility.

[jallerton]

If you are going to bid, isn't it safer to do so earlier in the auction?

I can understand avoiding a weak 2♥ opening 2nd position vulnerable, but perhaps an opportunity arises on the second round of the auction. Double shows hearts, but tends to be lead directing, more consistent with a decent 5-card suit. But what sort of hand bids 3♥ over 2♥? I think it ought to be something like this: reasonable playing strength but unsuitable for a 2♥ or 3♥ opening. On a good day, partner will work out that my suit isn't great before he makes his opening lead against a spade contract.

paulg, on 2012-September-25, 07:52, said:

though opening light is easily possible, unlikely to psych one notrump (although they were seventeen imps down with twenty boards to play).

Being 17 IMPs down shouldn't affect their strategy as the VP scale is virtually linear.

[MickyB]

Double [even by a passed hand] would have been takeout of spades in OP's methods. I'd have picked between X and 3H on the previous round.

[paulg]

jallerton, on 2012-September-25, 15:10, said:

If you are going to bid, isn't it safer to do so earlier in the auction?

I can understand avoiding a weak 2♥ opening 2nd position vulnerable, but perhaps an opportunity arises on the second round of the auction. Double shows hearts, but tends to be lead directing, more consistent with a decent 5-card suit. But what sort of hand bids 3♥ over 2♥? I think it ought to be something like this: reasonable playing strength but unsuitable for a 2♥ or 3♥ opening. On a good day, partner will work out that my suit isn't great before he makes his opening lead against a spade contract.

To be honest I did not consider bidding 3♥ on the second round but you make a very good point. But I will say that 3♥ has its risks as they have not shown a spade fit at the point you bid. Naturally balancing at the three level was my plan