[PeterAlan]

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Contract 6♣ by S, lead ♥Q, no opposition bidding.

On the assumptions (1) that W has ♥J, doesn't have ♥K, and (2) neither E nor W has 7+ ♥ or ♠, I estimate that

(a) immediate finesse for ♣K is just over 58%, and
(b) playing off ♣A then (if ♣K hasn't dropped) playing 3 rounds of ♦ is just under 63%.

Anything better?

[Codo]

What about Ace of spades, ace of clubs, spade ruff? If nothing spectacular happens, you can still play on diamonds, but if the King drops from West doubleton, he may have Kx in clubs and need to ruff the queen of spades with the King?

[PhilKing]

Codo, on 2012-November-06, 08:06, said:

What about Ace of spades, ace of clubs, spade ruff? If nothing spectacular happens, you can still play on diamonds, but if the King drops from West doubleton, he may have Kx in clubs and need to ruff the queen of spades with the King?

You can go a step further:

trick 2: spade
3: club to ace
4: spade ruff
5: diamond to ace
6: spade ruff

Now if West started with Kxx QJxx T9xx Kx, you are still home.

7: diamond king
8: diamond queen, ruffed and overruffed
9: spade queen

[PeterAlan]

Codo, on 2012-November-06, 08:06, said:

What about Ace of spades, ace of clubs, spade ruff? If nothing spectacular happens, you can still play on diamonds, but if the King drops from West doubleton, he may have Kx in clubs and need to ruff the queen of spades with the King?

In fact, ♠K does drop doubleton, from E. But you know then that E/W with the doubleton is void, and therefore likely to be able to ruff, on the third round, and chances that this must be with then singleton ♣K < 50% (♣ possibilities are Kx, K, x and -, with Kx more likely than -). It's the possibility of 3-3 ♦ as well as shortage being with (original) doubleton ♣K that improves the odds, isn't it?

[Fluffy]

Why not 3 rounds of diamonds directly?, if someone ruffs you can still finese clubs.

[PeterAlan]

Removed.

[WGF_Flame]

What Fluffy said is better then what you have imo, but i think there might even be abetter chance.
If you play 3 top diamonds and rho ruff, maybe its better to overfuff, take off the A club, if king doesnt drop, then A spade, then ruff a diamond, ruff spade, and play the last diamond.

[PeterAlan]

Thanks, everyone.