[Phil]

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Swiss.

Student presented this to me today. Opening lead is the ♥K (edited).

PTP.

[SteveMoe]

Would start winning the ♥A then 2 rounds of ♣s pitching the ♥ loser from North. ♦ toward K (I can postpone the ♥ ruffs for now). If the ♦K wins, lead small ♠ toward the K.

Would want to know more about what appears before going further.

[dustinst22]

My gut instinct is to win AH and run 4 rounds of clubs pitching a heart and 2 diamonds, but first I'd be curious what cards are played on the first 2 rounds of clubs.

[nige1]

Phil writes "Swiss. Student presented this to me today. Opening lead is a low heart. Spot is unknown, as are the opponents agreements. PTP."

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IMO: ♥A then run ♣s, discarding a ♥ and two ♦s unless somebody ruffs -

• if ♣ are 4-4, then cater for 4-0 trump break. ♠ 2 If LHO follows, then finesse ♠T.
• If an opponent ruffs the 2nd club, discard a heart anyway. And hope to guess ♠ and ♦.
• If LHO ruffs the 3rd or 4th ♣ then over-ruff. And hope to guess ♠ and ♦.
• if RHO ruffs the 3rd ♣ then hope to guess ♠ and ♦
• if RHO ruffs the 4th ♣ then hope to guess ♠

[CamHenry]

nige1, on 2013-April-29, 17:53, said:

IMO: ♥A then run ♣s, discarding a ♥ and two ♦s unless somebody ruffs -

• if ♣ are 4-4, then cater for 4-0 trump break. ♠ 2 If LHO follows, then finesse ♠T.
• If an opponent ruffs the 2nd club, discard a heart anyway. And hope to guess ♠ and ♦.
• If LHO ruffs the 3rd or 4th ♣ then over-ruff. And hope to guess ♠ and ♦.
• if RHO ruffs the 3rd ♣ then hope to guess ♠ and ♦
• if RHO ruffs the 4th ♣ then hope to guess ♠

Close, but: if LHO ruffs and you overruff, you have to guess ♠ OR ♦, not both.

[Fluffy]

♥A♣AK♦K

if it holds I play ♠Q from dummy hoping to get to hand eventually

[bigbenvic]

I think I'm winning A, AK♣ to ditch a ♥ and then ♠ to the 10.

If it forces the Ace I have the K♠ as an entry to the last 2 clubs, if it loses to the J, then when I win the return I'll play the Q♠ to force the Ace.

Only 3-1 spades with the J offside and a defender ducking the ace will stop me from getting 4♠ 1♥ 4♣ and 1♦

If they do duck the Ace I am forced to try for a doubleton J♦ playing 4 rounds of diamonds ruffing the forth with the K♠.

[PhilKing]

bigbenvic, on 2013-April-30, 18:07, said:

Only 3-1 spades with the J offside and a defender ducking the ace will stop me from getting 4♠ 1♥ 4♣ and 1♦

It's a pretty line, but there are other losing scenerios:

1. When you lose to the stiff jack. Since they should have a shrewd idea of your shape, they will switch to a low diamond from Axxx. You will now suffer a ruff when you had 11 on top.

2. When you lose to AJx. They will switch to a doubleton diamond, again securing a ruff.

Four rounds of clubs looks pretty solid to me.

[Hanoi5]

♥A♣AK♠x towards the Q

[rhm]

PhilKing, on 2013-April-30, 18:39, said:

Four rounds of clubs looks pretty solid to me.

It is.
But playing a spade to the queen at trick 2 is not much worse.
Assuming no diamond ruff is looming, it wins whenever West has the ♠A (except when West has all the trumps), or the ♠J is singleton or doubleton.

Rainer Herrmann

[dustinst22]

rhm, on 2013-May-01, 08:03, said:

It is.
But playing a spade to the queen at trick 2 is not much worse.
Assuming no diamond ruff is looming, it wins whenever West has the ♠A (except when West has all the trumps), or the ♠J is singleton or doubleton.

Rainer Herrmann

Or J3rd? Trick 2? You're not going to at least pitch a heart first?

[gszes]

my lack of entries to the strong hand convinces me to go for my game
hoping to lose 2 spades and the dia A. Playing 4 clubs off the top will
generally fail only with severe club distribution coupled and/or severe
spade distribution (even then probably only if rho has the long spades).

Thats a combination I can live with as all the other choiced risk abandoning
winners and hoping they get lucky enough to get back to them when the
odds of being stuck in dummy look overwhelming. Where do I get instincts
like that Dustinst22??????

[rhm]

dustinst22, on 2013-May-01, 10:18, said:

Or J3rd? Trick 2? You're not going to at least pitch a heart first?

Exactly. This keeps communication to hand intact.
Chances of success for this line is better than 70%.
Chances of success for the line playing clubs at trick 2 are more difficult to compute exactly but looks to me slightly higher.

Rainer Herrmann