[silvr bull]

An experienced partner and I disagree about the best action with this hand. The format is IMPs in BBO with random opps. What do you prefer?

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[SteveMoe]

I hate making a NT overcall with 15 round, but 1/3 of this hand is in their suit (so doubling seems wrong). Some would pass and they might be right this time, but I am allergic to inaction, even red vs white.

[the hog]

Pass. Worst possible distribution and no source of tricks.
Second choice is double. NT is out of the question for me.

[sfi]

2NT without a great deal of conviction seems about right. My second choice would be pass rather than double.

[aguahombre]

Absolutely the two reasoned choices are Pass and 2NT. Double really sucks. I don't think our four-to-zero vote for 2NT will hold up.

[mike777]

put me down for a nonexpert double.

I cant stomach pass or 2nt.

pass is option2 but that seems so passing the blame, pass seems so.....cover my behind in the postmortem bid.

[the hog]

AGH you are right, I forgot to vote when I posted. I dislike 2NT intensely. At least after a X you could bail out in 3m playing Leb.

[diana_eva]

I'd pass. Second choice is 2NT. I wouldn't double.

[Fluffy]

When RHO is a solid citizen, ♥KJx often produces more tricks than ♥AKx, specially in NT. Counting HCP is not accurate after a preempt. This one is more than enough for a 2NT bid.

[the hog]

 Fluffy, on 2014-March-06, 01:43, said:

When RHO is a solid citizen, ♥KJx often produces more tricks than ♥AKx, specially in NT. Counting HCP is not accurate after a preempt. This one is more than enough for a 2NT bid.

so you are saying kjx produces 3 tricks and ak only 2? Can you explain this magic trick?

[Lord Molyb]

2NT

[Cyberyeti]

 the hog, on 2014-March-06, 04:49, said:

so you are saying kjx produces 3 tricks and ak only 2? Can you explain this magic trick?

No, but given that you have another K to make up the same 7 points, it makes 2.5.

[gszes]

Lets see rho weak 2 hearts (average around 8 hcp)
I have 15 that leaves 17 btn partner and lho so lets
say 8.5 apiece. That means on average we rate to own
the hand for a partial. It also means we rate to set
2h at least 1 trick on average. That means the average
risk vs reward yields at best a small reward for
bidding here. How about risk?

We have no clue how those remaining 17 hcp are split
btn partner and lho and we are vul vs not. If the deck is
tilted in favor oh lho vs partner it merely becomes a matter
of degree as to how big a potential penalty is. So the risk
potential is still quite significant when we are slated to go
down in almost any bid we make about 30% of the time. How about
partner???

Partner is unpassed and they will be in a much better position
to judge how the power is split than we are. They will know if they
have longish suit. BUT, and there is no way around this, if p has
a hand with around 11 balanced and a couple of hearts our side
becomes a big game favorite and partner will have no decent way
of acting unless they can make a tox. So the final question seems
to be do we take some action via x or 2n (I prefer x vs 2n) or pass
(my choice) and see if p has the stuff to make a move?

Since it is pretty easy to catch up if p can make any noise in
the PO seat and it may well be impossible to recover when p is
broke that seems to indicate the risk vs reward argument at IMPS
favors pass. Nothing is perfect p=8 x=6 2n=5.

[aguahombre]

I have enough trouble swallowing 4X3 takeout Doubles of one-bids, and doubt it would occur to me to try it over a weak two, especially with KQX behind righty as a significant portion of my strength.

1NT over 1H with this hand would be obvious to me, and I understand people's reluctance to bid 2NT over 2H, despite the positional upgrade of KQX, and thus understand their choice to pass. But, I don't understand how an increase in level changes my flat hand into a takeout double. Even our "Lebenscramble" toy couldn't unscrew us if I double.

[r_prah]

2NT. Missing a vulnerable game is as risky as acting.

[silvr bull]

 aguahombre, on 2014-March-06, 09:36, said:

I don't understand how an increase in level changes my flat hand into a takeout double.

I think there are two reasons that the higher level argues for a different action. The first is very simple. If you call (or overcall) with 1NT, partner holding 8 or 9 points can invite with 2NT. Overcalling with 2NT takes that invitational sequence away from partner, so with 8 or 9 points, he must decide to pass 2NT or bid 3NT. If partner bids 3NT with a good 8 HCP, thinking we may have 17 (or even 18), West can have enough strength to double, and turn a small gain or loss into a larger loss.

Second, West may not be silent. He could easily raise to 3H or 4H with suitable hands. If partner holds something like KTxxx x Axx JTxx and West chirps 4H after our 2NT overcall, it will be difficult for North to bid 4S, because our 2NT overcall does not suggest a S fit. This situation is even worse for the people who want to pass the South hand. After South passes and West raises to 3H or 4H, it would be impossible for North to ride to the rescue.

My guess is that if this South hand was dealt 1,000 times, that N-S would make 4S more often than they would make 3NT. I also guess that North is likely to have either a 4 card S suit or a 5 card minor more often than not, so there is likely to be a safe harbor for N-S after a double, but NT will be safe only if North has his share of the points.

I confess. I was South, and I did double at the table. Unfortunately, this was not one of the hands where N-S would do well, and the people who passed scored better then me this time.

[ggwhiz]

2nt in a heartbeat. When was the last time anybody doubled 2nt on this auction and these colors?

It takes a huge parlay (semi solid minor suit on your left with good values) after a weak 2 that may be shaded by many (most?) partnerships.
As opposed to partner passing it out if they have heart length regardless of values.

Mind you I play systems off here so we can still survive some hands when pard can remove to 3 of a suit, also a hand that they may not be able to balance on.

Not only might we make a partscore or a game, if lho comes in and pard shows some "cards" with a double I'll go for the money on defense.

[aguahombre]

 ggwhiz, on 2014-March-06, 10:30, said:

Mind you I play systems off here so we can still survive some hands when pard can remove to 3 of a suit, also a hand that they may not be able to balance on.

While agreeing with your choice to overcall 2NT, North cannot reasonably bail out and stop at 3m. We play systems off as well, but an unpassed hand MUST be able to make "approach forcing" 3-level bids, IMO.

[Cyberyeti]

 aguahombre, on 2014-March-06, 11:07, said:

While agreeing with your choice to overcall 2NT, North cannot reasonably bail out and stop at 3m. We play systems off as well, but an unpassed hand MUST be able to make "approach forcing" 3-level bids, IMO.

2♥-2N-X you can get out in 3m though

[aguahombre]

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-March-06, 11:12, said:

2♥-2N-X you can get out in 3m though

Gawd, I hope so.