[ahydra]

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IMPs. Opps are vulnerable, both of them good players.

Opening lead is ♠10, ducked all around (South plays the 3). Now ♠9 continuation, you cover, South wins the Q. He continues with ♣A, you play K, North discourages. Then South plays ♠A. Ruff high or low?

ahydra

[PhilKing]

I would have to ask a few questions about their opening lead style - for instance, I would lead low from T9x here.

Anyway, I am certain the correct answer is not "ruff low". Ruff with the six perhaps, which pays off when South is 5125 with the ♥T9. But against myself, I would judge to ruff high.

[manudude03]

I don't think we can make this if trumps are 4-0, so I'm going to ruff high, draw trumps in 3 rounds, cash AK of diamonds and cross back in clubs to throw the last diamond crossruffing the last 2.

[inquiry]

Do they routinely open 1♣ with 5-5 in the black suits? Would 3♦ over 1♥ by north have been preemptive (he would have seven diamonds QJ9xxxx)? North will not have a singleton club and choose to lead a club. So the most South can have is 5♠-6♣.

If north can't have seven diamonds, South's most likely distribution is 5=1=1=6 or 5=0=2=6 so a possible 4-0 heart split is in the mix.

Let's start by stating the obvious. You have lost two spades, and a club, and assuming North has only two spades (that is south did not bid 2♠ on a strong AKQx of spades for a spade lead), you can not survive north being 2=4=any, since the third spade gives them a certain trump promotion. You can easily survive any 3-1 heart split by ruffing high. So your goal is to guess if South had five spades for his 2♠ bid or only four.

So let's imagine some hands for him. ♠AKQx ♥void ♦??? ♣ATxxxx, would you bid 2♠ for lead, or double 2♥ (we don't know what three diamonds he could hold)?
♠AKQx ♥x ♦xx ♣ATxxxx
♠AKQx ♥xx ♦x ♣ATxxxx
♠AKQx ♥xxx ♦void ♣ATxxxx

Not sure any of this helps, but the only hand where ruffing low helps is if south is 4=0=3=6. That is just too long a shot (and he might have doubled instead of bidding 2♠ because of the three diamonds. So I guess I have little choice but to ruff high. If south only had four spades at these colors, he got me.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Ben ... if South had 6 cards ♣, then his partner would have 2 cards.... but OP said he "discouraged " on the lead of South's Ace . Wouldn't North start a hi-lo with 2 cards ♣ ??

So, if South only has 5 cards ♣, then he only has 4 cards ♠ ... and you can safely ruff low .

[nige1]

ahydra, on 2014-June-15, 11:59, said:

IMPs. Opps are vulnerable, both of them good players. Opening lead is ♠10, ducked all around (South plays the 3). Now ♠9 continuation, you cover, South wins the Q. He continues with ♣A, you play K, North discourages. Then South plays ♠A. Ruff high or low?

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I like mandude03's line -- If North has 4♥, then you need a miracle in ♦ to make;
Hence you might as well ruff high, as a virtually cost-free safety-play, in case South has 5 ♠ and one or more ♥ e.g.

• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x x x ♦ - ♣ A T x x x
• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x x ♦ x ♣ A T x x x
• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x ♦ x x ♣ A T x x x
• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x x ♦ - ♣ A T x x x x
• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x ♦ x ♣ A T x x x x
• ♠ A K Q x x ♥ x ♦ - ♣ A T x x x x x

[inquiry]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2014-June-15, 17:07, said:

Ben ... if South had 6 cards ♣, then his partner would have 2 cards.... but OP said he "discouraged " on the lead of South's Ace . Wouldn't North start a hi-lo with 2 cards ♣ ??

So, if South only has 5 cards ♣, then he only has 4 cards ♠ ... and you can safely ruff low .

With AK-sixth, South would lead the king to make it clear. The lead of the Ace here should deny the club king. If South had 4=x=y=5 he is doing a lot bidding at unfavorable with only AKQx x QJx ATxxx at most, and with that double seems more appropriate than 2♠ (although 2♠ has marked lead directing advantage).

[whereagles]

I'm not going to cookup this one too much. Just ruff low, 'coz 5-4 is much more likely than 5-5 or 6-5.

[ahydra]

Thanks all. At the table I ruffed high and was one off when South held ♠AKQ3 ♥- ♦Q974 ♣AT864.

I was playing South for 5♠-6♣, being vulnerable and all that, but I hadn't noticed at the time that making this is very hard if that is the case and trumps are 4-0. Trying to discard a diamond from dummy on the clubs won't work because North will be short and can ruff the third round. As it happens, keeping it simple à la whereagles was the winning line - but I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who thought ruffing high was right!

ahydra

[gszes]

I am late but I was somewhat surprised to see so many thinking about
opener having AKQxx and considering opening 1c. The defense alone should
make everyone think twice--why did lho lead a spade instead of a club
if they were short(in clubs). Surely rho would not choose to open 1c vs 1s
with AKQxx x xx Axxxx it might be barely plausible with AKQxx x x Axxxxx but
still seems very unlikely any more clubs than that and lho had a singleton
or a void and would have led a singleton and showed out on club A with a
void. It is right to ruff low anytime rho has any holding but AKQxx Axxxxx
in the black suits and that is an awfully small target to place a bet on.

[manudude03]

I must confess I am rather confused as to why south cashed the ace of clubs if he was 4045, just leading a third spade immediately would leave declarer with no hope. Only reason I can think of is if he is afraid declarer has 5 diamonds. Otherwise as far as I can tell, you are down no matter what otherwise if trumps are 4-0 (can't get rid of the diamond loser).

[whereagles]

South's ♣A was probably just checking whether pard could encourage in clubs with the king.