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Lead Prob

Poll: Lead Prob (28 member(s) have cast votes)

Lead Prob

  1. Spade (9 votes [32.14%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 32.14%

  2. Heart (1 votes [3.57%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.57%

  3. Diamond (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Club (18 votes [64.29%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 64.29%

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#1 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2014-December-03, 18:06



sry thought i was in int/adv
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#2 User is offline   nekthen 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 02:47

A ♥ seems safe. I think a ♣ is moRe likely to give a trick away than to be the winning option
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#3 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 03:18

A spade lead is less likely to blow up partner's holding there than a trump declarer's play in that suit. It also may work by leading through strength, or finding partner's strength, not possible on a lead into declarer's long suit.
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#4 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 04:19

Club for me, some guy named papi suggests leading from a K against slams and it often produces the result we want.
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#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 04:30

Our diamond holding suggests an attacking lead and auction suggests dummy will have spade control. If it's the ace, you want to lead through it.


Spade thus.
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#6 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 06:49

When an auction goes bang-crash-wallop into slam without any subtlety, it's either cold or relying on a bit of fortune. A guesstimate is that North has solid(ish) ♦s, good trump support (but possibly missing an honour in ♥s) and something outside in ♣ or ♠. So a ♦ or ♥ lead is passive and will hand the initiative to declarer. A ♠ looks passive too - though it might turn out to be the winning lead (who knows?) - so I will plump for a ♣ and attack. Partner could have the A or Q and a trick outside the♣. Fortune favours the brave!
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#7 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 11:57

When opener's shown weakness and nothing else, odds are good that responder has a long suit rather than a tonne of HCP.

Leading a ♠ looks like it (approx) gains when the opps have 11 tricks and S the ♠Q or when P has the ♠K over the ace and an outside entry.
Leading a ♣ looks like it gains (approx) when they have no ♣ first or second-round control, or when P has the Q♠ and an outside entry.

The latter looks more likely to me.
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 12:16

I always lead aggressively on these auctions when holding xxx in LHO's long suit. Tempo is usually what is critical here.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#9 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 12:22

club, attack!
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#10 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 12:57

i guess just most agree that declarer will make if given the time. Partner needs a control and we need another trick. If I lead a club I need partner to have the Q and then something somewhere. Leading anything else seems to require more from partner. It's true that even if partner has the club Q and, say, the ace of spades this might not be enough. Declarer wins, draws trump, runs diamonds tossing clubs, gives up a spade. But a spade lead wouldn't do it then either.

So I lead a club.
Ken
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#11 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 15:03

well I was declarer on this hand, leader, I think even by Hog's standard an expert, did lead a club

just wanted to see what others would've lead

full hand:



thanks,

Eagles
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#12 User is offline   nekthen 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 16:24

So club lead gave the contract! So much for aggression
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#13 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 18:26

I regret nothing! I lived as few men dare dream!
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#14 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2014-December-04, 21:07

Bird/Anthias would recommend a passive lead from an unbid suit here, assuming that the opponents are skilled enough to avoid bidding the slam off a cashing AK. This advice is given in their chapter on what to lead against small slams when responder has shown a useful side suit. Incidentally, if the two side suits have comparable top cards, the shorter is preferable. They would lead a spade here. Right again!
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#15 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2014-December-05, 07:04

View PostThe_Badger, on 2014-December-04, 06:49, said:

When an auction goes bang-crash-wallop into slam without any subtlety, it's either cold or relying on a bit of fortune. A guesstimate is that North has solid(ish) ♦s, good trump support (but possibly missing an honour in ♥s) and something outside in ♣ or ♠. So a ♦ or ♥ lead is passive and will hand the initiative to declarer. A ♠ looks passive too - though it might turn out to be the winning lead (who knows?) - so I will plump for a ♣ and attack. Partner could have the A or Q and a trick outside the♣. Fortune favours the brave!

I agree entirely.
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#16 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2014-December-05, 15:15

I would lead a club and the actual hand does nothing to change my opinion.
Hi y'all!

Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
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#17 User is offline   jdgalt 

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Posted 2014-December-05, 19:30

Sometimes the dragon wins.
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