[WesleyC]

Hand 1.

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West leads the ♦4.

(Opponents lead 4th best, MUD etc and play reverse carding)

Spoiler

If you play a big diamond, East follows with the ♦7.
Assuming you then draw trumps, East follows with the ♥8 and then discards the ♠3.

Spoiler

If you next try the ♠Q, East wins the ♠A and switches to the ♣5.

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Hand 2.

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West leads the ♠J.

(Opponents overlead, high from doubleton and play reverse carding)

[1axbycz1]

Hand 1:
First count tricks. We have 4 hearts and 5 diamonds, for a total of 9 top tricks. The 10th trick can come from knocking out ♠A or if the ♣A is onside. However, there is the threat of risking a ♦ ruff, the lead looks like a singleton. Taking this into account, I would play this way:

After winning the first diamond trick, I cash ♥A and then ♥J. If trumps are 3-2 simply pull all the trumps and then play a ♠. If E discards on the second round of trump, I switch to the ♠Q immediately. If E wins and plays a small ♣, well this is where it gets tricky. I'll take a bet that the ♣A is with W, and duck. If W wins with the ♣Q (or J), and he holds the ♣A, then there is nothing he can do except to cash the A and there is no way he can get his ruff. However, if E holds the ♣A then another club would put the lead back to E and then he can get a ruff. Indeed, if E holds the ♣A, he could have done something different: play a ♦ to give W a ruff, and then get in on the ♣A to give W another ruff. So I assume that by switching the ♣, he doesn't have the A (is that sound?).

I would think this hand is really about who you think has the ♣A. Just my try on the hand.

[alok c]

Cash HAKQ,then lead SQ.-Hand 1.

[Shavit1]

1axbycz1, on 2015-August-07, 23:38, said:

Hand 1:
First count tricks. We have 4 hearts and 5 diamonds, for a total of 9 top tricks. The 10th trick can come from knocking out ♠A or if the ♣A is onside. However, there is the threat of risking a ♦ ruff, the lead looks like a singleton. Taking this into account, I would play this way:

After winning the first diamond trick, I cash ♥A and then ♥J. If trumps are 3-2 simply pull all the trumps and then play a ♠. If E discards on the second round of trump, I switch to the ♠Q immediately. If E wins and plays a small ♣, well this is where it gets tricky. I'll take a bet that the ♣A is with W, and duck. If W wins with the ♣Q (or J), and he holds the ♣A, then there is nothing he can do except to cash the A and there is no way he can get his ruff. However, if E holds the ♣A then another club would put the lead back to E and then he can get a ruff. Indeed, if E holds the ♣A, he could have done something different: play a ♦ to give W a ruff, and then get in on the ♣A to give W another ruff. So I assume that by switching the ♣, he doesn't have the A (is that sound?).

I would think this hand is really about who you think has the ♣A. Just my try on the hand.

Fully agree with your analysis. Note also that East did not double 2C to direct the lead - a good reason for me to assume that the CA is offside.

[WesleyC]

1axbycz1, on 2015-August-07, 23:38, said:

After winning the first diamond trick, I cash ♥A and then ♥J.

I would think this hand is really about who you think has the ♣A. Just my try on the hand.

Your analysis is spot on - especially against strong defenders, playing the Kc can't be right. However the critical play you made was at trick 3 - ♥A and then a small to the ♥J. I was under some time pressure and didn't stop to consider that my trumps plays might be critical and carelessly started with 2 high trumps from dummy.

When the full layout turned out to be:

---

.. I went down. On the actual hand, as long as you play trumps carefully, you can't go wrong.

AlokC's line is needlessly risky. Not drawing trumps gives you the chance to go down if they were 3/2 all along and RHO has both missing Aces.

Although Shavit1's inference would be fine playing a strong 1NT, I don't think it's relevant against a Mini-1NT because the double of 2C is needed to show general values. Against solid opponents though, playing for then not to have Grosvenor'd you does make sense.

[1axbycz1]

Hand 2 seems a lot more tricky than hand 1. This is my (probably futile) attempt:
If W has a singleton ♣ that isn't the K there's a good chance he'll lead it, so I assume otherwise.

I win trick 1 in dummy and play a low club to the Q.

Case 1: the finesse wins. I assume the ♣K is onside. (If a highly skilled defender knows how to hold up I'll concede.)

Now take a trump finesse. If it's onside you tend to make +1 most of the time quite easily. If it's offside:
-If a spade is returned, win A and ruff the losing spade in dummy, cash all top trumps in dummy, then take the clubs finesse again.
-If a club is returned, take the finesse, pull trumps, you get your 10 tricks
-If a diamond is returned, I'll duck (though I don't think it really matters). Can always win the 3rd round of diamond and then pull trumps.

So when the ♣ finesse works you usually make....

Case 2: the finesse loses. Once I get on lead I cash ♥A and play a ♦ to K. If that loses I can only hope that the trump Q is onside. If it wins I now play a trump from hand, taking a finesse this time. If this finesse loses I'll have to ruff a ♠ high and pull the trumps, then cashing the ♣ to make.

Conclusion: among the 3 things, ♣K, ♦A, ♥Q, if one of them is onside I make most of the time, but if all are off I lose.

Anyone has a better line?

[alok c]

Deleted.

[alok c]

alok c, on 2015-August-07, 23:59, said:

Cash HAKQ,then lead SQ.-Hand 1.-Edited.

[WesleyC]

alok c, on 2015-August-07, 23:59, said:

Cash HAKQ,then lead SQ.-Hand 1.

By drawing 3 rounds of trumps, you do gain the chance to play for the Ac onside. However after AKQh you would go down on the actual deal the same way that I did, after being forced to ruff with the Jh. If you are planning to draw 3 round of trumps you should either draw the 3rd round with the Jh (giving you a slim chance if diamonds turn out to be 2/2) or simply go all the way and draw 4 rounds of trumps then hope for something favourable to happen in clubs/spades.

[1axbycz1]

One more comment I have about hand 1:
After I pull 2 rounds of trump, playing the ♠Q is pretty much playing for the ♣A to be with W. If you want to play for the ♣A to be with E, you should pull all the trumps and then play ♠Q.

So yes, after the second round of trump, you're forced to guess who has the ♣A.

[alok c]

There are 3 possibilities for Hand 1.
A.Both the aces with LHO-you make the game no matter what.
B.Both the aces with RHO-you make the game by playing like NT contract.
C.When aces are devided,
a)LHO has SA-you make the game no matter what.
b)Lho has CA-you cash HA and play SQ,the only rider is RHO can not have 2cards greater than C8.

[WesleyC]

alok c, on 2015-August-10, 23:10, said:

There are 3 possibilities for Hand 1.
A.Both the aces with LHO-you make the game no matter what.
B.Both the aces with RHO-you make the game by playing like NT contract.
C.When aces are devided,
a)LHO has SA-you make the game no matter what.
b)Lho has CA-you cash HA and play SQ,the only rider is RHO can not have 2cards greater than C8.

Maybe a simpler way to think about it is: If LHO has the ♠A, you are always safe so you can ignore those cases.

Assuming RHO has the ♠A:

Drawing all the trumps (and subsequently putting up the Kc) wins when either the ♣Ac is onside or when the clubs are blocked (For example RHO holding QJ, Qx Jx or LHO holding AJ or AQ).

Drawing 2 round of trumps (and subsequently ducking club switch lower that isn't Q or J) wins whenever the lead WASN'T a singleton, and also if the Ac is offside, but not if RHO has precisely QJc.

It feels like both lines are pretty reasonable, although drawing all the trumps feels counter-intuitive.

[WesleyC]

1axbycz1, on 2015-August-08, 08:36, said:

Hand 2 seems a lot more tricky than hand 1. This is my (probably futile) attempt:
If W has a singleton ♣ that isn't the K there's a good chance he'll lead it, so I assume otherwise.

I win trick 1 in dummy and play a low club to the Q.

There isn't clever solution to this hand, I was more interested to hear some of the logic behind what order people choose to play the suits, how willing they are to risk a club ruff and how long they were prepared to wait before trying to guess diamonds.

Not to suggest that your line is necessarily wrong, but is there a good reason to take the club finesse before playing trumps? If LHO has a hand like [JT9x Qx Axx Kxxx] you lose to club ruffs that you could've prevented... What about winning the spade in hand and leading ♥J at trick 2?

[evojan]

WesleyC, on 2015-August-10, 23:58, said:

There isn't clever solution to this hand, I was more interested to hear some of the logic behind what order people choose to play the suits, how willing they are to risk a club ruff and how long they were prepared to wait before trying to guess diamonds.

Not to suggest that your line is necessarily wrong, but is there a good reason to take the club finesse before playing trumps? If LHO has a hand like [JT9x Qx Axx Kxxx] you lose to club ruffs that you could've prevented... What about winning the spade in hand and leading ♥J at trick 2?

I would take the lead in dummy, cash the HA (just in case) and Spades to the hand. Finesse with HJ. Say it loses to the Q in East who returns a C: a) If Hearts are 4-1 I put on the Q and if it wins I’ll take my S ruff, cash the HK and more C to the J, HT, CA and C to the Ten and D to the K: b) If hearts are 3-2 I stay low and if the Ten wins, I cash HK and more C to the Q. If W has the CK I would eventually guess a D to the K. What happened in real life?

[WesleyC]

evojan, on 2015-August-14, 07:49, said:

I would take the lead in dummy, cash the HA (just in case) and Spades to the hand. Finesse with HJ. Say it loses to the Q in East who returns a C: a) If Hearts are 4-1 I put on the Q and if it wins I’ll take my S ruff, cash the HK and more C to the J, HT, CA and C to the Ten and D to the K: b) If hearts are 3-2 I stay low and if the Ten wins, I cash HK and more C to the Q. If W has the CK I would eventually guess a D to the K. What happened in real life?

I played the exact line you mentioned. The full layout was:

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When East returned a club West could ruff and play a spade, leaving me one dummy entry short.

So either saving the ♠K or playing a diamond up early (and guessing right) makes 10 tricks, even with the heart misguess and club ruff.

[phil_20686]

WesleyC, on 2015-August-07, 21:40, said:

Hand 1.

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I can kinda see that playing AJ of hearts will gain when both black suits break nicely and you can ruff a club small and then cross in trumps. On the other hand, we are basically playing not to surrender two ruffs if you play that way, and that is surrendering to some pretty likely layouts when the hearts are 4-1 given the diamond lead. So I don't think its something that you should be concerned about. Also, its not as if its a clear technical improvement since e.g. here:

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cashing the heart AJ is fatal, and cashing the AK succeeds.

So assuming that we cash the AK of hearts. What next? The main problem is when can we deal with lho being 4-1 in the red suits. Eventually I can pitch my club loser. But if rho has the spade ace and either the Q or J or A of clubs its all over (can get two ruffs most likely if rho has both black aces). At this point I probably maximise my chances by cashing a third round of trumps and playing a spade. If LHO has the ace of spades I have won now, as anything which he returns enables me to draw trumps. If rho has the spade I need lho to have all of the AQJ of clubs. If rho fishes out one of the Q or J of clubs I will cover/fly K because thats my only chance. So I will make - geven lho has 4 trumps - when
(1) LHO has the spade A
(2) RHO has the club A
(3) LHO has all of the AQJ of clubs as now there are no entries for both two clubs and a ruff if the diamonds are 2-2
(4) Probably when lho has the AQ of clubs, as its tough for a defender to switch back to a low club at this point. Depends how good they are.

The alternative line of cashing 4 trumps and playing a spade to the Qworks whenever the spade A is with lho or the club ace is with rho which is 75%, my line is slightly better as gets AQJ of clubs with lho also. I think not cashing a third trump is a mistake because it has the big losing case of rho having two black aces and lho getting two ruffs.

Probably at the table I would not have picked up the extra case of lho having AQJ clubs and diamonds being 2-2 despite the lead, and just cashed 4 trumps and played a spade to the Q. Given that I am going to cash a third round of trumps to avoid going off when rho has both black aces, its going to be AK and J in some order. I think this is clearly superior to any line involving cashing only two trumps.

[evojan]

WesleyC, on 2015-August-14, 09:04, said:

I played the exact line you mentioned. The full layout was:

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When East returned a club West could ruff and play a spade, leaving me one dummy entry short.

So either saving the ♠K or playing a diamond up early (and guessing right) makes 10 tricks, even with the heart misguess and club ruff.

True. My alternative plan was in fact to take the lead in hand and to let the HJ run as the bare Q is a pretty low probability. Suppose that's the best line. Thanks for the deal.
Jan