[johnu]

kenberg, on 2024-June-04, 07:48, said:

Added: I fiund the WaPo link as to what Trump said and did not say.

https://www.washingt...on-lock-her-up/

A pretty comprehensive video history of the original interview where Trump claimed he didn't say lock her up, and the blowback on the host for not fact checking Trump at the time.

Fox News Host SEETHES After Being BRUTALLY FACT CHECKED!

Of course, with Trump facing actual prison time, he's doing everything to a) Not go to prison b) Turn this into a political advantage. As to a), Trump thinks he can pressure the NY legal system to give him a break because he gave Hillary a break by not prosecuting her (see the video to see what a lie that was). And for b), this is just pure lying to try to make the uneducated and uninformed think that he was and will be a "fair and balanced" president.

[pilowsky]

johnu, on 2024-June-04, 17:54, said:

A pretty comprehensive video history of the original interview where Trump claimed he didn't say lock her up, and the blowback on the host for not fact checking Trump at the time.

Wait a minute, this makes no sense, are you suggesting that Donald Trump would say something that wasn't true?

[kenberg]

johnu, on 2024-June-04, 17:54, said:

A pretty comprehensive video history of the original interview where Trump claimed he didn't say lock her up, and the blowback on the host for not fact checking Trump at the time.

Fox News Host SEETHES After Being BRUTALLY FACT CHECKED!

Of course, with Trump facing actual prison time, he's doing everything to a) Not go to prison b) Turn this into a political advantage. As to a), Trump thinks he can pressure the NY legal system to give him a break because he gave Hillary a break by not prosecuting her (see the video to see what a lie that was). And for b), this is just pure lying to try to make the uneducated and uninformed think that he was and will be a "fair and balanced" president.

I got about halfway though, a little more, I'll do the rest later. Fine. It is settled. Trump did say the words "Lock her up". I had never heard of Will Cain but his self-defense is ludicrous, just as Trump's is.

I keep looking for a way out of this and I have a suggestioin. Yes Trump lied. But right now, I would focus on his vindicitveness. There are a lot of people out there who are not at all happy with where we are or where we seem to be headed. Maybe they see Trump's lies as the least of their problems. But Trump is consumed by anger and vindictiveness. Such a person, liberal, conservative, whatever, and Trump should not be called a conservative, that is an insult to conservatives, should not be president. It is bad that he lies, the harm he intends to do is much worse, We need to get people to think about that. Trump should not be president even if his plan is to give everyone who is named Ken Berg $100,000 in appreciation of our existence.

[hrothgar]

kenberg, on 2024-June-05, 08:45, said:

I got about halfway though, a little more, I'll do the rest later. Fine. It is settled. Trump did say the words "Lock her up". I had never heard of Will Cain but his self-defense is ludicrous, just as Trump's is.

I keep looking for a way out of this and I have a suggestioin. Yes Trump lied. But right now, I would focus on his vindicitveness. There are a lot of people out there who are not at all happy with where we are or where we seem to be headed. Maybe they see Trump's lies as the least of their problems. But Trump is consumed by anger and vindictiveness. Such a person, liberal, conservative, whatever, and Trump should not be called a conservative, that is an insult to conservatives, should not be president. It is bad that he lies, the harm he intends to do is much worse, We need to get people to think about that. Trump should not be president even if his plan is to give everyone who is named Ken Berg $100,000 in appreciation of our existence.

Me, I'd go with the rapes...
And the sexual assaults
And the whole "tried to overthrow the US government" thing

[thepossum]

There is something wrong with the world when all we have are the political choices on offer world wide
And something even more wrong that they appeal to anybody
For want of a better phrase those who appeal to the anti-establishment, anti-elite, the anti-corrupt will always appeal these days
Its an embarrassing thing for a highly educated experienced professional, and highly political person to say that these days I would find it hard voting for anyone other than myself - fortunately for the USA I live elsewhere. The world's least popular populist

But seriously. I think its a case for reflection on why some people are so popular

[kenberg]

hrothgar, on 2024-June-06, 15:29, said:

Me, I'd go with the rapes...
And the sexual assaults
And the whole "tried to overthrow the US government" thing

Well, this wouldcertainly make me not vote for him. But I have more resons than I can count why I would not vote for him. Here is an important fact. I am comfortable. Yes I notice prices have gone up. Of course. My concern with prices now is on a completely differemt level than my concerns when I was 20. There are people out there to day whose concerns about prices are mch like mine were way way back then. Can we reach them? I hope, for some, the anser is yes. Yjey don't give a FF about what DT did with Stormy however. We have to address their concerns. Ok, I don't really know how best to do that but the problem is that when I hear Biden speak I worry that he also doesn't know either.

Basics are good. Very basic basics. I hope we do that. There are many people who plan to vote for Trump that I believe will seriously regret it. Let's hope a clear case is made and let's hopes omeone listens. I wish I were more optimistic.

[barmar]

pilowsky, on 2024-June-04, 19:23, said:

Wait a minute, this makes no sense, are you suggesting that Donald Trump would say something that wasn't true?

As long as he's not under oath in court. Which is, of course, why he didn't testify in any of his recent court cases.

[shyams]

kenberg, on 2024-June-07, 14:32, said:

There are people out there to day whose concerns about prices are mch like mine were way way back then. Can we reach them? I hope, for some, the anser is yes. Yjey don't give a FF about what DT did with Stormy however. We have to address their concerns. Ok, I don't really know how best to do that but the problem is that when I hear Biden speak I worry that he also doesn't know either.

Basics are good. Very basic basics. I hope we do that. There are many people who plan to vote for Trump that I believe will seriously regret it. Let's hope a clear case is made and let's hopes omeone listens. I wish I were more optimistic.

There are numerous areas where the US economy is doing well. I suspect you will hear about only a few of these matters, on some "wins" you won't hear much at all.

1. The average wages are rising. This is good because the economically weaker classes get respite from inflation when their pay also increases. I don't follow many of your politicians but I don't think they emphasize this too much.

2. Instead, they focus on how "inflation is under control". Perhaps it is, but the rise in income is a more important (and non-defensive) messaging. I may be wrong but I think the Dems are focused more on the defense to inflation than the "winning offense" on pay growth.

3. The FTC managed to unbind almost all Americans from "non-compete" clauses in their employment contracts. Again, this is a huge win for the people (and their prospects of wage growth). Yet I don't think the political class talks much about it (e.g. hopefully most of you are aware of the FTC win. If not, please blame your media & Dem politicians for not talking about it).

4. A significant proportion of past pain on inflation was "gas prices" (i.e. cost of petrol). Recently a matter was revealed in the media where Scott Sheffield, ex CEO of one of the companies in the petro sector, was accused on manipulating global crude prices by colluding with the Saudis. I think most Republican politicians are implicitly on the CEO's side --- but I don't see Democrats making a huge fuss about the collusion and how it cost the average American hundreds of $$s.

I could have written more points about how Dems are ignoring their wins, but I can't be bothered. I will end with a prediction (which can be tested in early Nov) that (a) the Dems will easily win the House, and (b) they will retain control of the Senate. If both happen, and then you lose the Presidency, it is the fault of your political classes. Don't blame the voters, blame your people.

[hrothgar]

kenberg, on 2024-June-07, 14:32, said:

Yes I notice prices have gone up. Of course. My concern with prices now is on a completely differemt level than my concerns when I was 20. There are people out there to day whose concerns about prices are mch like mine were way way back then.

What does any of this have to do with Biden?

The COVID pandemic meant that the entire world suffered a massive supply shock
The Russian invasion of Ukraine meant that there were follow on shocks to the oil markets and the grain markets.

The price increases in the US have been lower than those in the rest of the world.
The US economy has been doing significantly better.

I understand that you're not happy, but in all serious what makes you think that this could have been handled any better?

More importantly, which, if any, if Trump's policies do you think would improve on this?

[kenberg]

hrothgar, on 2024-June-09, 09:30, said:

What does any of this have to do with Biden?

The COVID pandemic meant that the entire world suffered a massive supply shock
The Russian invasion of Ukraine meant that there were follow on shocks to the oil markets and the grain markets.

The price increases in the US have been lower than those in the rest of the world.
The US economy has been doing significantly better.

I understand that you're not happy, but in all serious what makes you think that this could have been handled any better?

More importantly, which, if any, if Trump's policies do you think would improve on this?

Somehow I must not have beem clear. I do not think that he, Truump would be an improvement. I think he would be a major disaster. I can't see anything that I said that indicates I think that Trump would be an improvement. I did mention that I think a lot of people who are planning to vote for Trump would regret it, and I meant they would reggret it in practical personal terms..

My point, and again I believe I have said this many times, is that Trump, especially the Trump that we are seing today, Should have absolutely no chance of winning an election as anything, but it al least it appears that he has a good chance of winning, or at least a good enough chance of winning that I and others are very worried.

A couple of posts back Shyams says "Don't blame the voters". I might put it a litttle differently, but basically I agree. I would put it this way: Given that Trump is at least in contention for the presidency, and given that Trumpp is about the worst choice I can image for a president, I think the Democartic strategists should at least consider the possibility that they are not approaching this election correctly.

[awm]

There's a lot of discussion in this thread about what Democrats / Democratic strategists should say or do to improve their chances in the election (or what they're doing wrong for Trump to be even or leading in the polls).

But to be honest, I think the vast majority of what I (or most Americans) hear about politics isn't said by politicians or political strategists. There's some paid advertising in swing states, but that's usually closer to election time.

Most of what we hear comes from the media (whether TV, written, or social media) or from friends and family. And it's staggering how much help Trump is getting from the media! Even the so-called "liberal media" is treating Trump like a normal candidate, normalising the idea that he is being "politically persecuted" by the Biden administration, that voting for Trump would be a reasonable thing to do for people who are dissatisfied with the economy, and that Biden's age is somehow equally concerning with Trump's many indictments, lies, scandals, etc. The New York Times seems to be on a crusade against Biden (amazing numbers of articles about Biden's age; apparently they are pissed off that he doesn't want to give them an exclusive interview). The media doesn't even want to connect Trump to the abortion bans across the country (which they variously blame on the Supreme Court or local legislatures). As for Trump's behaviour during the pandemic (or anything, really, about the pandemic) it's "like it never happened." There's also a serious social media effort (much of it lead by foreign actors) to boost Trump, which seems to be having some impact on younger voters.

The United States is very proud of its tradition of independent media (enshrined in the first amendment) and I'm not sure what exactly the Democratic Party can do about the fact that our media is tilted dramatically in Trump's favor. Certainly there's some things they can do with paid ads (again, likely to be more active closer to the election) but the favorable coverage Trump gets is all for free, and often from sources that most voters think of as unbiased or even slightly to the left.

[Winstonm]

awm, on 2024-June-09, 12:52, said:

There's a lot of discussion in this thread about what Democrats / Democratic strategists should say or do to improve their chances in the election (or what they're doing wrong for Trump to be even or leading in the polls).

But to be honest, I think the vast majority of what I (or most Americans) hear about politics isn't said by politicians or political strategists. There's some paid advertising in swing states, but that's usually closer to election time.

Most of what we hear comes from the media (whether TV, written, or social media) or from friends and family. And it's staggering how much help Trump is getting from the media! Even the so-called "liberal media" is treating Trump like a normal candidate, normalising the idea that he is being "politically persecuted" by the Biden administration, that voting for Trump would be a reasonable thing to do for people who are dissatisfied with the economy, and that Biden's age is somehow equally concerning with Trump's many indictments, lies, scandals, etc. The New York Times seems to be on a crusade against Biden (amazing numbers of articles about Biden's age; apparently they are pissed off that he doesn't want to give them an exclusive interview). The media doesn't even want to connect Trump to the abortion bans across the country (which they variously blame on the Supreme Court or local legislatures). As for Trump's behaviour during the pandemic (or anything, really, about the pandemic) it's "like it never happened." There's also a serious social media effort (much of it lead by foreign actors) to boost Trump, which seems to be having some impact on younger voters.

The United States is very proud of its tradition of independent media (enshrined in the first amendment) and I'm not sure what exactly the Democratic Party can do about the fact that our media is tilted dramatically in Trump's favor. Certainly there's some things they can do with paid ads (again, likely to be more active closer to the election) but the favorable coverage Trump gets is all for free, and often from sources that most voters think of as unbiased or even slightly to the left.

This is so incredibly and indelibly true I can't imagine everyone not recognizing it as factural. Even wtih something innocuous as the Hunter Biden trial requires digging into blogs by national security reporters like Marcy Wheeler in order to get the ins and outs of what is going on. Everything in the standard national medias have normalized it all, reporting breathlessly on Trump's latest non-sensical utterance as if it were God's word from on high without a single challenge, with no mention that he is under indictment for ringleading an insurrections, stealing classified and top secret documents, and is a convicted felon and con artist.

When the media formally known as news is normalizing the abnormal we have crossed over the plane of the mirror and into Alices's Wonderland.

For the literaray minded, wasn't it Brave New World that forecast such a future where entertainment trumped everything?
We seem to have arrived at a conjunction of two stars: Brave New World and 1984. Fascism as entertainment.

[kenberg]

My thoughts seem to be DOA and maybe I just have to accept that. The two above posts are asserting, maybe unintentionlly asserting but still asserting, that nothing can be done. No reason for the Democratic strategists to look for how they might improve their approach, the problem is the media and so that's that.

We can always find someone to blame, and there is often some accuracy in the blaming. But but but we only rarely can change the behavior of those we blame.. If we look for our own errors we might actually be able to do something effective. Most everyone understands this basic truth but it gets forgotten.

[thepossum]

The world clearly is or always has been fascist as Winston points out
Strange how Orwell summed it all up in several books

Who are our enemy today lol

These days it's so fascist nobody in government or media need to pretend any more. They don't even have to exile dissidents any more

Hard to know who's dystopia is more current though

Shall we do a USA poll about the 2nd World War

I hate to go too far and risk being misunderstood but people even believe what they read in books too lol

Believe what they are taught in classrooms. Don't go too far lol

Power is what it is

[shyams]

There are many things in awm's post that I agree with. Two things where my personal assessment differs from his are:

A) I don't think the media favours Trump but that's my personal opinion. In any case, I'm overseas, I'm not American & I rarely watch US media.

B) There are more things in the control of the Democrats than what awm wrote in his message. If I re-use the 4 points from my previous message:

• Rising wages: Market forces mostly at play. But, Biden did good when he explicitly supported Auto Unions in MI. He could have done more (e.g. support Starbucks unionisation) but maybe your party's Strategists thought that "CA & WA are in the bag for the elections. What's the point in supporting unions in these states?"
  
• To me, the Dem messaging on inflation was poor. Hopefully many of you will agree that the naming the act as "Inflation Reduction Act" instead of a name highlighting growth,jobs, investments etc. was a blunder of your Strategists.
  
• Non-competes: It is highly likely that receptionists working at (e.g.) dentists' establishment had a non-compete. So if a vacancy opens up at one, an experienced receptionist from another could not quit and fill the vacancy (for a better pay). That is, until Biden's FTC abolished non-competes.
  I wonder if Party workers going door-to-door are briefed to talk about it to the voters. I'm guessing not!
  
• Inflated margins of corporations. When Biden started talking about $35 insulin price cap, the market prices of insulin began to fall. He could have done more, talked about other industries... and voters would have noticed. Maybe the Strategists decided it's not a talking point.

It's not about messaging alone. It is about doing more for your party's electorate even while catering to the big money donors.

[johnu]

shyams, on 2024-June-09, 16:53, said:

[*]Non-competes: It is highly likely that receptionists working at (e.g.) dentists' establishment had a non-compete. So if a vacancy opens up at one, an experienced receptionist from another could not quit and fill the vacancy (for a better pay). That is, until Biden's FTC abolished non-competes.

One estimate is that almost 30% of lower income workers (e.g. fast food, sales, service industry,...) have/had non-compete agreements. For some reason, maybe because the local Jimmy Johns (a fast food sandwich chain somewhat similar to Subway) were on strike locally (and the company I worked for often ordered from them to serve at meeting around lunch time), I remember that Jimmy Johns was in a number of lawsuits over its noncompete clauses in the mid 2010's. It always seemed ridiculous to have noncompetes for cashiers, people assembling sandwiches, or prepping ingredients.
And yes, the Biden campaign should be hitting this point in targeted ads and speeches. This would be good to bring up at the debates, if they actually happen.

[pilowsky]

Apparently, Trump is about sit down for an interview with a probation officer since, you know, felony conviction.
The probation officer (any chance it'll be recorded and televised?) will no doubt explain stuff like: he mustn't have a gun, maybe shouldn't leave town and perhaps shouldn't consort with other felons.

Afterwards, Trump's probation officer (where do we get tickets to sit behind this lucky person?) will write a report outlining - amongst other things - whether or not Trump has shown any remorse.

"Sure" Mr Trump said, "I'm deeply remorseful and apologise with all my heart to the people of New York...".

Did I mention that Trump has a probation officer?

[awm]

Most of the media is not saying that Trump is wonderful or cheering for him in an obvious way (okay, maybe the right-wing media is). The problem is that reporters like to treat the two alternatives as equally flawed, so they give equal TV time and newspaper space to "Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies and indicted for trying to overthrow the US government" and "Biden is over 80 and sometimes stutters." They perpetuate the myth that the economy is struggling (something like half of Americans believe the US is in a recession even though their personal economic situation is mostly good) and that it was better under Trump (conveniently ignoring the whole "2020" part of Trump's presidency). It's basically a symptom of trying to treat the two candidates as if they are equally good choices (or equally bad choices) which is a huge boost to the candidate who is a completely unqualified convicted felon.

I agree that the non-US media tends not to do this, which is part of why so many Europeans are in disbelief as to how Trump could be polling so well in the US.

The US news also tends not to talk about policy, or the sort of technical changes (like the non-compete thing) that actually help people. I don't think this is primarily a function of how much Biden talks about them in his speeches. He spent a great deal of time in his State of the Union talking about stuff like this, and the headline was basically "Energetic President Refutes Senility Rumors" and not anything at all about the factual content of what he said.

[barmar]

The media focuses on Biden's age because polls show that this is one of the things that are concerning voters most. Although it may be a vicious cycle: they're concerned about it because the media emphasizes it.

Polls also show that most people's feelings about the economy are totally wrong. Thw stock market is up 12% this year, and recently hit record highs (the Dow Jones broke 40K for a while). But half of respondents to a poll thought the S&P 500 was down for the year. 72% said they think the rate of inflation is increasing, and more than half thought we're in a recession.

It's not surprising that Republicans who watch Fox will feel like this, they happily pass on Trump's disinformation. But numbers this wrong mean that there's misinformation on both sides.

From Morningstar.com

Quote

Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the conservative-leaning Manhattan Institute, said he was seeing lots of frustration over the poll's findings, but he said they're not a new phenomenon.

"Historically, voters always poll too pessimistic on economic data by about 25 points," said Riedl on social media. "My grand theory of polling, public opinion, and social media is that nearly everyone thinks they are getting screwed on everything. Economy is always declining, you pay all the taxes and get none of the benefits, everything is a conspiracy, the world is always getting worse, etc."

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-June-09, 14:30, said:

My thoughts seem to be DOA and maybe I just have to accept that. The two above posts are asserting, maybe unintentionlly asserting but still asserting, that nothing can be done. No reason for the Democratic strategists to look for how they might improve their approach, the problem is the media and so that's that.

We can always find someone to blame, and there is often some accuracy in the blaming. But but but we only rarely can change the behavior of those we blame.. If we look for our own errors we might actually be able to do something effective. Most everyone understands this basic truth but it gets forgotten.

Perhaps that is how you understood it but that is not what I intended in my post. You point, so it seems, to the Democratic leadership as a reason disgruntled voters aren't abandoning Trump. What I'm saying is that these disgruntled voters are like the followers of Jim Jones in Guyana and that the media is reporting on the killing of the Congressmen who went to investigate as simply normal politics.

There is something that can be done. I can't do it. You can't do it. It requires that we do it as a nation. It requires active politics and voting. It requires self-governance. I doubt we do it.