[johnu]

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Playing IMPs.

This is from a BBO Challenge match playing against 3 basic GIBs. You are declaring 4♥ against the lead of ♥3 and East will follow with the ♥2.

Plan the play.

Spoiler Preliminary

Spoiler

If you draw another round of trumps, you will know that West started with 3, East with 1

Spoiler Final

Spoiler

Are you really stumped, or just confirming you have the right line of play?

Spoiler

If trumps are 2-2, you can draw trump, lead a club to dummy. If West wins the ace, you have lots of winners. If East wins the ace, you can pitch a spade on a high club and ruff 2 diamonds in dummy. No problem, you can't go down.

If you draw a 2nd round of trump and East has 3 trumps, you can lead a club to dummy, but if East wins and plays back a trump, you can only ruff 1 diamond in dummy so you have to pitch the 4th diamond on a club winner, and lead twice in spades to your hand to set up a spade trick.

But if someone has a doubleton spade (except ♠AK) and the last trump (or if you play a club before drawing a 2nd trump and trumps were 2-2), the defenders can manage a spade ruff and you will be down 1.

What about drawing 3 rounds of trump if trump are 3-1? You can only ruff 1 diamond, and if the club ace is with East, you only get 1 pitch, or if West ducks the club, you lose no clubs, but still have a diamond and 3 possible spade losers. So you will have to lead up to your spade twice and hope one of the spade honors are onside.

A priori, that is a 75% chance that 1 or both spade honors will be onside. But, what was the opening lead? Hint, it wasn't ♠A or ♠K so the odds are highly remote that the spade holding you should be worried about exists.

So the winning line of play is to draw 3 rounds of trump if necessary and lead a spade to your hand. Next play a club to dummy, high diamond(s) and ruff a diamond, pitch a diamond on the club (and a spade if West hopped with the club ace), and lead another spade from dummy.

You are pretty close to 100% on this line of play assuming that even a GIB would normally lead a high spade honor on opening lead.

Note that you can go down after drawing 3 rounds of trump if you lead a club to dummy. If East wins, and plays back a diamond, you only have 1 entry to dummy by ruffing a diamond but you have to lead spades twice.

[kenberg]

Shortened description, same line of play:

Basic plan: One spade, five hearts, two diamonds, one diamond ruff, one club.

Three rounds of hearts, ending on the board. Spade from the board. If E rises, I am home. So assume W takes my Q.

Diamond back to my ace, I lead a club. If W rises, I am home. Assume E takes my K.

If E leads a spade, I rise. If he leads a diamond, I go up ruff a diamond, pitch a diamond on the club, and then I lead a spade.


This fails if W has the spade AK and E has the club A, and succeeds otherwise. The a priori chance of the bad lie is 1 in 8, but since the oppoents both passed it is unlikely that either has all three of A and AK. So make it 1 in 6.

However, the bad lie is spade AK to my left, club A on my right. With that holding, W might well have started with the spade A.

Ignoring all evidence, the chances would be 7 out of 8. Considering the passes, maybe only 5 out of 6. But condsidering the non-spade lead, probably better than 5 out of 6. How much better depends on how lho, robot or human, feels about leading A from AK at T1. If he would always do it, then this line is a sure thing.

[lackeman]

If W have cl A he may duck the club. We can also play unother line and take 2 d ruffs,1 cl, 5 h and 2 d tricks. If we play HA in trick 1 then cl K. Then take da, dk and cQ. Then crossruff d and clubs leaving a heart left at defenders. This line only fails when defenders can take a s ruff. Then of cause if h are 2-2 we are always home(playing your way:)).

[kenberg]

lackeman, on 2016-July-04, 05:13, said:

If W have cl A he may duck the club. We can also play unother line and take 2 d ruffs,1 cl, 5 h and 2 d tricks. If we play HA in trick 1 then cl K. Then take da, dk and cQ. Then crossruff d and clubs leaving a heart left at defenders. This line only fails when defenders can take a s ruff. Then of cause if h are 2-2 we are always home(playing your way:)).

If "If W have cl A he may duck the club." is referring to my suggested line, it's not problem. That's our club trick. And putting the club A in the W hand makes it unlikely he also holds the AK of spades since he might have opened with just that and would surely have opened if he held either missing diamond honor. So we are almost a lock if W holds the club ace whether he rises or not.

We are told in the spoiler that hearts are 3-1 but yes, if the hearts are 2-2 things would change.Two rounds of trump and lead a club from the hand without touching spades. Both diamonds get ruffed and, assuming the club K is taken, there is time to throw one spade on a good club. So: Two rounds of trump, if they split the hand is over. If they are 3-1, then a third trump to the board and lead a spade, scoring it up unless the A and AK are all wrong. Unlikely on the face of it, and even less likely because of the non-spade lead.

A thoughtful W, holding the AK of spades, might not lead one. He is looking at three trump, the auction at least suggests four trump in dummy (2D is a positive response to the invitational Drury 2C, so 2H with three would keep the invitation intact) so he might feel the chance of a third round spade ruff is remote. Leading the spade ace might, and here would, help declarer. So it could be that the spade AK is on the left, the club A on the right. Possible, but the odds are against it.I am not risking a spade ruff to cater to this possibility.

[Phil]

I like the suggested line. Its something like 92% to come in.

[Zelandakh]

I am notoriously bad at play problems but I would win the lead on table and play ♦AK followed by a ruff. Then a trump back to hand - if 2-2 we are home. If trumps are 3-1 then a second diamond ruff followed by a spade up is going to work unless the defenders can either take a ruff or ♠AK is on the left and ♣A on the right. Otherwise they are forced to give access to a black suit trick for #10. No doubt this line is a lower % than setting up 2 black suit tricks but it is surely better than most of the games I am in nonetheless!

[case_no_6]

There really is no danger on this hand since, with AK of spades on your left, LHO would have led a top spade. So there are not 3 spade losers - as long as you lead spades twice from Dummy.

So, since trumps are splitting 2-2 or 3-1, win the first trump in Dummy, win the second trump in hand, and if necessary finish drawing trump ending in dummy.

(If trumps are 2-2, you simply lead a club now. You can pitch a spade on the club and ruff both diamond losers.)

Assuming the 3-1 trump split and having ended in Dummy, you now lead a spade. If RHO flies with an honor, you have no problems; when you get in you will lead a club to provide a discard for the diamond loser you cannot ruff.

If LHO wins, you again will lead a club when you next get in to establish a pitch of a diamond. Your diamond ruff will be the entry you need for the second spade lead from Dummy.