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Would you bid this differently and get to a grand?
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#22
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,567
- Joined: 2018-July-04
- Gender:Male
- Location:Australia
Posted 2019-January-14, 19:10
Dear all
Thankyou for all your comments and considerations. I understand it may be a borderline one but as cyberyeti says, my hand was a very good 23 pointer (I think) so it was probably more realistic for me to be thinking of the grand. But as people have confirmed it does seem hard to know for sure what North has. If I was playing a tournament and felt I needed a swing I may go for it (depending on whether my partner was a forgiving bot or a forgiving/unforgiving human
). However I realise reading all the comments that I missed a few of the considerations.
Here are a few recent thoughts after reading. I have told North I have 5C 4S and I know the bot has 4H 4S, 2 or 3 each of C and D. We know we have all the key cards and north knows I have K C. I know north has (according to GIB guidelines) 8-11 HCP, 9-12 Total. I have 22 HCP and 23+ total points (depending on how I value distribution). GIB values mine at 23, Pavlicek would make it 24 and K-R 25(assuming anyone could do it in their head). I dont know how North or South should adjust based on the auction
So assuming I make the decision I have to distribute 4- 7 unknown points between J trumps, KQJ H, KQJ D, J C (14 total unknown points). Given that I wasnt asking about Aces and Kings (and we hadnt used any cues), I either have to hope for at least one K, maybe 2 if lucky? or concentration in hearts.
If I could have asked about kings I would have found out about K H, know we had length for possible discards/ruffs on Clubs and Hearts and taken a bit of a risk, depending on circumstance.
68% probability doesnt worry me at MPs but would depend on partner. It would be interesting to know what the full probability is on a single hand - is it as simple as just the 3-2 trump break + a few small extra chances (ie 68+ %), or is it 68- % because of the lack of information about the hands. If you have the 3-2 trump break, you dont need to worry about J clubs (assuming short clubs in north or do you?
thanks for everyone's interesting discussion
regards P
Thankyou for all your comments and considerations. I understand it may be a borderline one but as cyberyeti says, my hand was a very good 23 pointer (I think) so it was probably more realistic for me to be thinking of the grand. But as people have confirmed it does seem hard to know for sure what North has. If I was playing a tournament and felt I needed a swing I may go for it (depending on whether my partner was a forgiving bot or a forgiving/unforgiving human
). However I realise reading all the comments that I missed a few of the considerations.Here are a few recent thoughts after reading. I have told North I have 5C 4S and I know the bot has 4H 4S, 2 or 3 each of C and D. We know we have all the key cards and north knows I have K C. I know north has (according to GIB guidelines) 8-11 HCP, 9-12 Total. I have 22 HCP and 23+ total points (depending on how I value distribution). GIB values mine at 23, Pavlicek would make it 24 and K-R 25(assuming anyone could do it in their head). I dont know how North or South should adjust based on the auction
So assuming I make the decision I have to distribute 4- 7 unknown points between J trumps, KQJ H, KQJ D, J C (14 total unknown points). Given that I wasnt asking about Aces and Kings (and we hadnt used any cues), I either have to hope for at least one K, maybe 2 if lucky? or concentration in hearts.
If I could have asked about kings I would have found out about K H, know we had length for possible discards/ruffs on Clubs and Hearts and taken a bit of a risk, depending on circumstance.
68% probability doesnt worry me at MPs but would depend on partner. It would be interesting to know what the full probability is on a single hand - is it as simple as just the 3-2 trump break + a few small extra chances (ie 68+ %), or is it 68- % because of the lack of information about the hands. If you have the 3-2 trump break, you dont need to worry about J clubs (assuming short clubs in north or do you?
thanks for everyone's interesting discussion
regards P