Posted 2019-August-25, 08:05
While no lead comes with guarantees, imo the spade 4 is the standout choice.
It is highly unlikely that partner has enough in hearts to allow us to establish and run the suit. He will rarely hold 3,since he would usually bid at least 2S with 3 hearts. If he lacks spades, our spade king may never be an entry either.
Meanwhile the opps have promised hearts stopper(s) but said nothing about spades.
Also, if the opps had long spades, they may have tried to find that fit, while if they have clubs (in addition to diamonds) they’d often ignore that suit in favour if notrump.
Finally, and this is ‘the’ reason for the lead, spades is thevsuit where we offer the most help to partner.
As for the choice of lead, low is, to me, clearly right. I would lead high from xx or xxx so partner will infer an honour. While it is unlikely to matter, low caters to layouts such as Lho with Qxxx and partner AJ108. The king stops us getting 4 tricks. Also, again unlikely, the K blows a trick on some layouts where an opp has a stiff Ace. Finally, we don’t want partner playing us for KQx.
In real life, the odds are that the King would work as well as would the 4, but I think the 4 is definitely the correct choice.
I overlooked one other reason for the 4, rather than the King. Give declarer Qxx in spades, and partner AJ10x. Now, he still needs another trick/entry to cash 4 spades and beat the contract, but the King blows a trick immediately and may be the 9th quick winner.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
2D = weak two in an unspecified major, 3-10 HCP. (You opted to treat the poor 7-card suit as a 6-bagger)Opps are better-than-average club players but don't have any real agreements about defence to Multi.
Your lead?'
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I rank
1. ♠4 = Partner is likely to have ♠s and entries..
2. ♥J = "Safe" .