akwoo, on 2020-March-23, 12:28, said:
Unfortunately, that takes biology, not math.
Math is in some ways quite easy. You just figure out what the assumptions are, figure out the right way to calculate, and you get an answer. You can change the assumptions a bit, calculate again (with the help of a computer) and get another answer. Computers are fast at calculating.
Biology is hard. To figure out what's going on, you can't just calculate or think. You have to actually do experiments. Experiments take time; nature works at its own pace, and you can't speed it up by thinking harder.
I will preface this with my: I am not a doctor, epidemiologist, virologist, public health official etc etc
However
Some may argue that it may take experiments to establish the stongest evidence of causes of things. However there are many other methods that give strong indications of risk factors/associations. And as far as I m aware, from my perhaps limited knowledge of medical reesearch and epidemiology, experiments that require giving people viruses to test what it is that kills you are not commonly accepted scientific practice - for obvious reasons I would hope.
Therefore people tend to rely on other methods.
One recent report from Italy posted in a discussion on Twitter abut comorbities
My link has a number of interesting statistics and tables that give some indications of risks (or associated factors), not causal risks I hasten to add but strong associations with mortality
In that report one of the most discussed numbers were comorbities(pre-existing conditions) with Covid - section 3 of the report
It is clear from the numbers that without making any statement of cause there are very strong risk factors associated with 1 or more pre-existing medical conditions - that is reading the data and discussion. Not medical opinion or anything before anyone has a go. However I do actually have a masters in biostatistics and some understanding of the field Please read the report.
Hopefully doctos or other experts will clarify. Also these are risks/associations - not causal relationships
Table 1.Most common comorbidities observed in COVID-19 positive deceased patients
Ischemic heart disease 30.1% of fatalites
Atrial Fibrillation 22.0% of fatalities
Stroke 11.2% of ftalities
Hypertension 73.8% of fatalities
Diabetes 33.9% of fatalities
Dementia 11.9% of fatalities
COPD 13.7% of fatalities
Active cancer in the past 5 years 19.5% of fatalities
Chronic liver disease 3.7% of fatalities
Chronic renal failure 20.2% of fstalities
Number of comorbidities
0 comorbidities 1.2% of fatalities
1 comorbidity 23.5% of fatalities
2 comorbidities 26.6% fatalities
3 or more comorbidities 48.6% of fatalities
NOTE It should also be born in mind that many of these comorbities are common across the high risk groups anyway so no inference can be made that they are a factor involved in mortality (eg high blood pressure) - they could just be common comorbities in that population
DISCLAIMER Again I add I am not a doctor, epidemiologist etc but it seems that many of the risk factors are quite obvious and obviously common in older people - hence higher death rates. Also as far as I am aware most (if not all) the younger victims of Covid also had serious comorbities
HOWEVER Please note that this in no way downplays the infectiousness, seriousness of the illness, the load on health systems etc etc. And it is not expert comment. Just I happen to have some training and get rather upset sometimes at the lack of clarity in messages and discussion.
ALSO Just because there appears a very strong association between fatalities and comobrities no inference should be made about the seriousness of the illness for all the non fatal cases - or for people to think that they are ok, or they wont get a serious illness, or that they will die or any inference at all. That is also not medical opinion. Just common sense. But surely we can discuss some figures and likely risks
ALSO These figures are from one specific nation with a reasonably resourced health system, I have massive concerns for the effect in places with less resourced health systems. Thats a personal view knowing how much treatment is required
PLEASE Treat this information in the way it is intended. Do not misuse the figures. Do not Regard them as expert comment or causal in any way shape or form. But I am sure by now everyone is aware of these issues without having to be a medical expert to discuss it
PS Whenever I get abused for commenting on things I may know something about (yet am not expert in) I am somewhat heartened (or should I say dismayed) that I am in good company. Our Chief Medical Officer in Australia is regularly attacked via social media for not being a virologist - I believe since he has a different speciality in medicine he is not regarded as qualified to discuss anything either