pescetom, on 2020-March-27, 12:31, said:
Today's statistics in Italy: positive 66414 (+7%), dead 9134 (+12%), no longer infected 10950 (+6%). Intensive care 3732 (+3%). Fatality rate 12.1%.
The new rate around 7% remains stable, as does the fatality rate around 11.5%.
I read that Israel is testing 64 samples at once on the assumption that often all will be negative - somehow I don't think that would work well here.
Surprisingly, in the UK 'experts' - I use that term very, very loosely - expect the epidemic to peak next Sunday, April 5th.
https://www.mirror.c...d-next-21769853
I am not so convinced. They used the Chinese model to base those figures. In the UK we are, in most respects, 2 weeks behind Italy. Like Italy, we are a European country with a similar population distribution, but upside down by location. Only a difference of just over 10% in population numbers, too.
The statistics taken from Wikipedia bear this out (Italy first): First death 21/2/2020, 5/3/2020; 1000 cases 29/2/2020, 14/3/2020; 1000 deaths 12/3/2020, estimated 28/3/2020; 10,000 cases 10/3/2020, 26/3/2020, etc.
The biggest difference is that parts of Italy were first put under quarantine on the 22nd February, whereas in the UK that happened on the 23rd March. That is
four weeks,
not two.
The outbreak hit some large towns in Italy, but the epicentre of the outbreak in the UK is London and Birmingham, the two largest cities. I honestly cannot see the lockdown being relaxed in 2 weeks time. Common sense just says to me that this is going to on for months, perhaps over 3 months before restrictions are lifted. That's not being pessimistic, but realist. What do you think? I'm always interested in other people's views.