[shyams]

y66, on 2020-March-27, 07:19, said:

It's encouraging to see what Charlene Babcock, MIT engineers and Czech engineers are doing to expand ventilator capacity asap.

Thank you. I have copied the links (especially the Charlene Babcock video) and shared on WhatsApp so that the doctors in my contacts can see this. If it gets circulated widely, it might generate the necessary awareness to ensure hospitals adopt it where practical.

[y66]

shyams, on 2020-March-27, 09:00, said:

Thank you. I have copied the links (especially the Charlene Babcock video) and shared on WhatsApp so that the doctors in my contacts can see this. If it gets circulated widely, it might generate the necessary awareness to ensure hospitals adopt it where practical.

I edited my post to link to this NYT story which is where I read about Dr. Babcock's ventilator hack: https://www.nytimes....pgtype=Homepage

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 66414 (+7%), dead 9134 (+12%), no longer infected 10950 (+6%). Intensive care 3732 (+3%). Fatality rate 12.1%.
The new rate around 7% remains stable, as does the fatality rate around 11.5%.

I read that Israel is testing 64 samples at once on the assumption that often all will be negative - somehow I don't think that would work well here.

[FelicityR]

pescetom, on 2020-March-27, 12:31, said:

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 66414 (+7%), dead 9134 (+12%), no longer infected 10950 (+6%). Intensive care 3732 (+3%). Fatality rate 12.1%.
The new rate around 7% remains stable, as does the fatality rate around 11.5%.

I read that Israel is testing 64 samples at once on the assumption that often all will be negative - somehow I don't think that would work well here.

Surprisingly, in the UK 'experts' - I use that term very, very loosely - expect the epidemic to peak next Sunday, April 5th.

https://www.mirror.c...d-next-21769853

I am not so convinced. They used the Chinese model to base those figures. In the UK we are, in most respects, 2 weeks behind Italy. Like Italy, we are a European country with a similar population distribution, but upside down by location. Only a difference of just over 10% in population numbers, too.

The statistics taken from Wikipedia bear this out (Italy first): First death 21/2/2020, 5/3/2020; 1000 cases 29/2/2020, 14/3/2020; 1000 deaths 12/3/2020, estimated 28/3/2020; 10,000 cases 10/3/2020, 26/3/2020, etc.

The biggest difference is that parts of Italy were first put under quarantine on the 22nd February, whereas in the UK that happened on the 23rd March. That is four weeks, not two.

The outbreak hit some large towns in Italy, but the epicentre of the outbreak in the UK is London and Birmingham, the two largest cities. I honestly cannot see the lockdown being relaxed in 2 weeks time. Common sense just says to me that this is going to on for months, perhaps over 3 months before restrictions are lifted. That's not being pessimistic, but realist. What do you think? I'm always interested in other people's views.

[Cyberyeti]

FelicityR, on 2020-March-28, 02:45, said:

Surprisingly, in the UK 'experts' - I use that term very, very loosely - expect the epidemic to peak next Sunday, April 5th.

https://www.mirror.c...d-next-21769853

I am not so convinced. They used the Chinese model to base those figures. In the UK we are, in most respects, 2 weeks behind Italy. Like Italy, we are a European country with a similar population distribution, but upside down by location. Only a difference of just over 10% in population numbers, too.

The statistics taken from Wikipedia bear this out (Italy first): First death 21/2/2020, 5/3/2020; 1000 cases 29/2/2020, 14/3/2020; 1000 deaths 12/3/2020, estimated 28/3/2020; 10,000 cases 10/3/2020, 26/3/2020, etc.

The biggest difference is that parts of Italy were first put under quarantine on the 22nd February, whereas in the UK that happened on the 23rd March. That is a four week difference.

The outbreak hit some large towns in Italy, but the epicentre of the outbreak in the UK is London and Birmingham, the two largest cities. I honestly cannot see the lockdown being relaxed in 2 weeks time. Common sense just says to me that this is going to on for months, perhaps over 3 months before restrictions are lifted. That's not being pessimistic, but realist. What do you think? I'm always interested in other people's views.

How long it goes on for and when it peaks are different questions. Ideally a flat peak rather than a sharp one is what we're aiming for so the problem will go on for a long time after the peak.

Italy and the UK are very different population profiles, Italy has twice as many over 65s and nearly twice as many smokers, so while the spread may not be different, Italy is likely to have more deaths per same number of cases.

[pilowsky]

The comment about different smoking habits is accurate, but it must also be remembered that the Italian diet differs markedly from the British diet. In addition, there are genetic subtleties such as thalassemia (Italy) or sickle cell (African-American) disorder that could have differential effects. Finally, I recall being at a hypertension conference where the head of a British Heart Institute (Prof. Anna Dominiciak) remarked that she sometimes referred to the British as "the control group of Europe because they never took their tablets". The point is that there are multiple risk factors in each population that contribute. We still know very little. I congratulate BBO again on picking up the slack as the worlds physical bridge clubs close.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 70065 (+5.5%), dead 10023 (+10%), no longer infected 12384 (+13%). Intensive care 3856 (+3%). Fatality rate 12.5%.
So maybe a first sign of the rate dropping again, or maybe just a reporting hickup, see in next few days.
Ten thousand dead is no hickup though.
The Prime Minister is giving a press conference right now, see what he has to say beyond extending the lockdown.

[cherdano]

I know pescetom tried to tell us, but I still didn't appreciate how quickly the virus becomes personal.
5 days ago I didn't know anyone personally of whom I knew they had the virus.
Then I've learned that our next door neighbours are quite sure she had/he currently has the virus. (Both are fine.) Yesterday I learned that a family that are some of our best friends have all four tested positive, and that a collaborator had stopped his lecture before everything was getting closed because he started having symptoms compatible with coronavirus. And just now I learned two people in my street are in hospital with covid-19, and the third one in their flat was bad enough to call an ambulance earlier today (but he is staying home for now).

Stay home. If you do go out, wear a mask. (Home-made is fine.) Wash your hands.

[Cyberyeti]

cherdano, on 2020-March-28, 16:15, said:

I know pescetom tried to tell us, but I still didn't appreciate how quickly the virus becomes personal.
5 days ago I didn't know anyone personally of whom I knew they had the virus.
Then I've learned that our next door neighbours are quite sure she had/he currently has the virus. (Both are fine.) Yesterday I learned that a family that are some of our best friends have all four tested positive, and that a collaborator had stopped his lecture before everything was getting closed because he started having symptoms compatible with coronavirus. And just now I learned two people in my street are in hospital with covid-19, and the third one in their flat was bad enough to call an ambulance earlier today (but he is staying home for now).

Stay home. If you do go out, wear a mask. (Home-made is fine.) Wash your hands.

I personally know nobody with it, but the list of well known people with it grows.

What's the current opinion on masks ? I heard many doctors in the early days of the virus saying they weren't effective.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-March-28, 16:55, said:

What's the current opinion on masks ? I heard many doctors in the early days of the virus saying they weren't effective.

I think that there was a deliberate attempt to downplay the effectiveness of masks during the early stages of the pandemic in order to try and prevent hoarding and preserve capacity for medical professionals who are the ones who most need them.

I think that the conventional wisdom wrt masks remains unchanged

Masks are quite effective at stopping infected individuals from spreading the virus
Masks are somewhat effective at stopping people from contracting the virus
The material that masks are made from matters enormously (linen and silk are much better than loose cotton)

[cherdano]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-March-28, 16:55, said:

What's the current opinion on masks ? I heard many doctors in the early days of the virus saying they weren't effective.

Masks (even very simple ones - say wrap a t-shirt around your neck and make it cover your mouth) are quite effective at protecting others when you are infected. They are also mildly helpful at preventing you from getting infected.

Obviously you shouldn't go out buying hundreds of masks if they are in short supply for medical staff in your area. But they are helpful. https://www.washingt...ll-coronavirus/

The WHO is still advising against it - as far as I can tell they are just bonkers. Consequences will be particularly dire in the developing world where countries could easily ramp up the (cheap) production of masks but can't easily double their ventilator stock in a few weeks.

[Cyberyeti]

cherdano, on 2020-March-28, 17:22, said:

Masks (even very simple ones - say wrap a t-shirt around your neck and make it cover your mouth) are quite effective at protecting others when you are infected. They are also mildly helpful at preventing you from getting infected.

Obviously you shouldn't go out buying hundreds of masks if they are in short supply for medical staff in your area. But they are helpful. https://www.washingt...ll-coronavirus/

The WHO is still advising against it - as far as I can tell they are just bonkers. Consequences will be particularly dire in the developing world where countries could easily ramp up the (cheap) production of masks but can't easily double their ventilator stock in a few weeks.

The theory was that the infectious droplets were VERY fine, and if a mask was fine enough mesh to stop them, then when you breathed out, you would force it off your face and your breath would go round it rather than through it.

[Winstonm]

cherdano, on 2020-March-28, 17:22, said:

Masks (even very simple ones - say wrap a t-shirt around your neck and make it cover your mouth) are quite effective at protecting others when you are infected. They are also mildly helpful at preventing you from getting infected.

Obviously you shouldn't go out buying hundreds of masks if they are in short supply for medical staff in your area. But they are helpful. https://www.washingt...ll-coronavirus/

The WHO is still advising against it - as far as I can tell they are just bonkers. Consequences will be particularly dire in the developing world where countries could easily ramp up the (cheap) production of masks but can't easily double their ventilator stock in a few weeks.

Depends on the size of the virus.

[FelicityR]

hrothgar, on 2020-March-28, 17:00, said:

Masks are quite effective at stopping infected individuals from spreading the virus
Masks are somewhat effective at stopping people from contracting the virus
The material that masks are made from matters enormously (linen and silk are much better than loose cotton)

Wear a mask, an N95 mask preferably and a scarf over it. Or alternatively a dust mask with a basic N95 medical mask inside. Doubling up your facial protection just makes sense given the current environment. The general public should be reasonably protected if they do this, practice social distancing, and keep washing their hands regularly, especially after coming indoors from outside.

Too many health professionals, including over 50 doctors in Italy (I read yesterday) have died, and whilst they are on the frontline of treating this illness, it just shows how easily the virus is transmitted, despite many of the health professionals having the right equipment to shield themselves from the virus. And yes, I have also read about a lack of basic equipment in some hospitals, too.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 73880 (+5.5%), dead 10779 (+8%), no longer infected 13030 (+5%). Intensive care 3906 (+1%). Fatality rate 12.7%.
The reported positive rate remains steady and well above the rate of intensive care, despite the fatality rate nudging ever higher.

Thinking about differences of Italy vs UK, I suspect the most important ones are cultural and sociological. The risk of serious civil disorder is stronger in Italy, particularly in the south where much of the economy is illegal and the balance of power between the state and the mafia is delicate even in normal times. More in general, Italians tend to put their family before almost anything else, as sociologists have discussed for decades.

[Winstonm]

Social distance, social distance, social distance.

Quote

We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4 Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.

https://www.nejm.org...56/NEJMc2004973

[y66]

From the Financial Times:

Quote

The urgent demand [for ventilators] has, however, sparked a wave of ingenuity. An Italian 3D printing start-up has converted a snorkelling mask for use with hospital ventilators, while a project involving Mercedes, Formula One and London university engineers has developed a breathing aid for use in intensive care that frees up ventilators for the most severely ill patients.

Sifted, our site for tech start-ups, reports on the frenetic hackathons and crowdsourcing efforts to fill the gap, including a project making a ventilator from windscreen wiper motors.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 75528 (+2%), dead 11591 (+8%), no longer infected 14620 (+12%). Intensive care 3981 (+2%). Fatality rate 13.3%.
So an apparent (we will see) second drop in the positive rate, but not in the death rate.

It would be interesting to know the truth about how many died in Wuhan and even more so about how many were infected but survived.
Articles like this are suggesting 40K+ deaths of which at least 25K+ attributable to Covid19.
It would be doubly sad if they all died without even establishing herd immunity, as these numbers seem to imply.

[y66]

Time magazine has some interesting country comparisons based on data compiled at Johns Hopkins.

[mythdoc]

pescetom, on 2020-March-30, 12:43, said:

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 75528 (+2%), dead 11591 (+8%), no longer infected 14620 (+12%). Intensive care 3981 (+2%). Fatality rate 13.3%.
So an apparent (we will see) second drop in the positive rate, but not in the death rate.

It would be interesting to know the truth about how many died in Wuhan and even more so about how many were infected but survived.
Articles like this are suggesting 40K+ deaths of which at least 25K+ attributable to Covid19.
It would be doubly sad if they all died without even establishing herd immunity, as these numbers seem to imply.

The numbers are underreported in many countries by a large magnitude. The US numbers are a joke, and this thing is just ramping up.