[PassedOut]

barmar, on 2020-May-01, 09:35, said:

In MA we're not allowed to go outside without a mask. Which is a Catch-22 for me, because I can't figure out how to get a mask without going outside.

I looked on Amazon.com, they all have expected delivery times in mid-May or June. I went to Walgreens.com, they don't have them for delivery. And even if I used a t-shirt as a makeshift mask, none of the local stores have them in stock, either.

Where are people getting masks from?

Lots of people in my family are making masks at home. Etsy crafters sell masks. Here we had a good supply of masks from before the pandemic started, and are reusing them instead of throwing them out.

[hrothgar]

barmar, on 2020-May-01, 09:35, said:

Where are people getting masks from?

Friends of mine made me some

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2020-May-01, 09:49, said:

Becky ordered 3 at
https://www.youtube....h?v=Rec7OQdFWvY
they came in, she thinks, about 4 pr maybe 5 days.
That was maybe two weeks ago.

But previously I was using a scarf, more or less the same way you might if you were out in the cold winter air and wanted to cover up. It was a bit clumsy, the mask is definitely better.

Please keep in mind the reason for the mask - it is not to protect the mask wearer; it is to prevent asymptomatic spreaders and minimally ill from inadvertently spreading the virus.

[Winstonm]

Also, this report most likely adds a degree of restraint on the wishful thinking of an early end and resuming of normality.

Quote

The CIDRAP-led team used those reports, historical data on past pandemics, and published reports about the medical details of Covid-19 to put together their forecast.

"I have said for a long time that when you are trying to understand how infectious disease is going to unfold, you should rely on history as well as models," Lipsitch told CNN. For instance, pandemic infections don't tend to die down in the summer, like seasonal flu does., he said.

Covid-19 is most comparable to a pandemic strain of influenza, they said.
"Because of a longer incubation period, more asymptomatic spread, and a higher R0, COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than flu," they wrote in the report. R0 is the average number of other people infected by each patient.
"A higher R0 means more people will need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic can end," they add. "Based on the most recent flu pandemics, this outbreak will likely last 18 to 24 months."

[johnu]

barmar, on 2020-May-01, 09:35, said:

Where are people getting masks from?

I had some old N95 masks that I had bought at Home Depot for painting and drywalling. I washed them and the cloth parts seem to be as good as new. On one of them, the elastic in the bands was disintegrating. I had some elastic material from another project and hand sewed new bands onto the mask.

[johnu]

Winstonm, on 2020-May-01, 10:24, said:

Please keep in mind the reason for the mask - it is not to protect the mask wearer; it is to prevent asymptomatic spreaders and minimally ill from inadvertently spreading the virus.

The guidance has changed since the beginning of the pandemic. Initially, masks weren't recommended for the general public in the US, and certainly not N95 masks. Some public health experts acknowledge that N95 masks in particular were not recommended to prevent a run on them by the general public when they were (and still are which is a major disgrace for the Grifter's administration) in short supply for the front line workers.

Consider industrial use of face masks. They prevent the user from breathing in toxic vapor and dust depending on the type of mask. Those masks are not designed to protect the source of the vapors or dust. Sure they probably won't stop an individual virus which is incredibly miniscule, but depending on the quality of the mask they will usually catch droplets containing the virus which are much larger. You are protected to the extent that masks will stop these droplets before you breath them in.

But they won't give you 100% protection so you shouldn't expose yourself any more than if you weren't wearing a mask.

[smerriman]

kenberg, on 2020-May-01, 08:28, said:

On perhaps Monday I heard on NPR (National Public Radio) a report from New Zealand. It sounds like they are doing quite well. I would be interested in hearing more.

We have a huge advantage over many other countries - geography. We're pretty isolated from the rest of the world as it is.

Our government also took action very early - we've taken a big economic hit given we rely on tourism, but we shut our borders and went into full lockdown early in the hope that some pain now will allow us to get back to normal and prevent a larger one to come in the future. We're down to about 3 new reported cases a day, and that's still including returning travellers or ones that are being found in retrospect.

Our prime minister and chief executive of the ministry of health are also fantastic communicators - it feels a little like they've been able to 'hypnotise' (but not in a bad way) the whole country into doing what needs to be done - and actually wanting to! Their press updates are daily viewing for most of the country.

[y66]

barmar, on 2020-May-01, 09:35, said:

In MA we're not allowed to go outside without a mask. Which is a Catch-22 for me, because I can't figure out how to get a mask without going outside.

I looked on Amazon.com, they all have expected delivery times in mid-May or June. I went to Walgreens.com, they don't have them for delivery. And even if I used a t-shirt as a makeshift mask, none of the local stores have them in stock, either.

Where are people getting masks from?

My wife made me one out of some flannel + an old Hawaiian shirt that had disintegrated + elastic from an old bed sheet. She used some vacuum bag material in the first version but it was not comfortable. Our neighbors' kids made us some white masks with turquoise stripes that are also quite sturdy (two layers) and breathable so we each have two. Our county board chair made a video that shows how to make a mask for people who don't sew.

[johnu]

smerriman, on 2020-May-01, 14:27, said:

We have a huge advantage over many other countries - geography. We're pretty isolated from the rest of the world as it is.

Our government also took action very early - we've taken a big economic hit given we rely on tourism, but we shut our borders and went into full lockdown early in the hope that some pain now will allow us to get back to normal and prevent a larger one to come in the future. We're down to about 3 new reported cases a day, and that's still including returning travellers or ones that are being found in retrospect.

Our prime minister and chief executive of the ministry of health are also fantastic communicators - it feels a little like they've been able to 'hypnotise' (but not in a bad way) the whole country into doing what needs to be done - and actually wanting to! Their press updates are daily viewing for most of the country.

I am green with envy at the quality of your leadership.

[pilowsky]

Good news everyone! things might be getting back to normal. This just arrived in my letterbox this morning. My first thought was How do these people wear masks?

[Trinidad]

kenberg, on 2020-May-01, 08:28, said:

Here in Maryland, population about 6 million, there are about 23,000 confirmed cases and a little over a thousand deaths. A bit more than half of the deaths are patients in nursing homes. We are mostly in lockdown. We can shop for groceries, go to the hardware store, such things as that, wearing a mask.
There were 1730 new cases in the last 24 hours. This is nearly an 8% increase and was a shock. The percentage increase has mostly been under 5 % for maybe the last ten days or so. I hope the 8% is an anomaly.

This would mean that in Maryland, the death toll is at about 170 per million inhabitants.
The Netherlands has 17 million inhabitants. Since March 1st, the Covid-19 reported deaths are 260 per million. These are people who have been tested positive. They typically died in hospitals or at home after they had been diagnosed in the hospital. However, in that period the excess mortality is 520 per million. (The excess mortality is the number of people who died in that period more than you would have expected to die, based on the average in the same period from the previous 5 years.) So, in the Netherlands roughly half of the corona victims were tested. (Some people will have died from secondary effects of the corona crisis, think of heart attacks due to stress).

The number of hospitalizations (people who are or have been in hospital beds with confirmed or suspected corona) is now at 638 per million inhabitants. These numbers are also available on a local level. The region where I live has been hit hard. There is county nearby (about 25 miles from us) with 3247 hospitalizations per million. We have 1784 per million in the county where we live. The Northern part of the country is hardly affected. (The distance from North to South is about 200 miles.)

The national number of hospitalizations has increased with 5 per million (+ 0.8 %) in the last 24 hours. Here, we are definitely over a peak. We have very little data on test results, because we don't have the testing material.
Typically, health care workers are tested, as a sample for the population, and the data are collected. Some of the blood donations are tested for antibodies to collect data on (possible) immunity. My estimate is that roughly 5-10 % of the population has antibodies now.

To me this means that we will have to be in our "intelligent lockdown" for another 1-1.5 year. (3.5% immunity built up per month, 60 % needed - 7.5 that we have: 52.5/3.5= 15 months) The lockdown could be lifted gradually in this period, working similarly like an annuity. This would mean that the output numbers (casualty rate, hospitalization rate, etc.) remain constant whereas the number of contacts between people gradually increases (but the number of contacts with people who are not immune stays constant).

So, I have prepared myself mentally to have to deal with this for 1-1.5 years. I guess that this means that face to face bridge will start again after the summer of 2021.

Rik

[awm]

Switzerland has 29,705 cases and 1,435 deaths in a population of 8.57 million (so 3466 cases and 167 deaths per million inhabitants). However, the growth rate has flattened and we have been adding only about 100 cases per day.

We have started to open some businesses back up -- hairdressers, massage, and tattoo parlors reopened last Monday (with everyone wearing masks and some extra sanitary precautions), along with hardware stores. More things are supposed to open (including schools for younger kids) a week from Monday. In general the Swiss government is not asking people to wear masks on the streets -- only if they expect to be in close contact with other people not in their immediate family (i.e. at the hairdresser).

Of course, I expect to continue working from home for a long time to come (since tech companies lose relatively little by asking most employees to work from home).

[y66]

Per Johns Hopkins and Virginia Hospital data reported through 5/1, Virginia (population 8.5 million) has 16,902 cases, an average daily growth rate of 5.5% for the last 7 days (rate of doubling ~ 13 days), 3,738 hospitalizations to-date (1,426 currently), 5,070 available beds and 2,343 available ventilators which is 80% of capacity.

So, fewer cases per million (1988) than Switzerland (3433) and Maryland (3882*) but growing faster (5.5%) than Switzerland (0.5%) and Maryland (5.1%).

Virginia has a long way to go to get to Switzerland's growth rate which was where Virginia's is now on April 3rd. If we maintain their pace, which is not likely IMO, we will get to 0.5% by the end of May at which time we will still be below 30% of hospital bed capacity knock wood.

The US took 16 days to go from 5.8% to 2.9% which is where the US is currently. Switzerland took 8 days and I suspect they have done a lot more to slow things down since they got to 2.9% on April 10th than the US is willing to do for the next 20+ days. If we get below 2% (rate of doubling ~ 35 days) and stay there through 2020 that would exceed my expectations.

*corrected

[barmar]

PassedOut, on 2020-May-01, 09:54, said:

Lots of people in my family are making masks at home. Etsy crafters sell masks. Here we had a good supply of masks from before the pandemic started, and are reusing them instead of throwing them out.

I looked at Etsy, that seems like a good source. One of them asked for a size, I have no idea what my head size is so I chose a different one. Estimated delivery May 6-19.

I searched my wardrobe for a scarf a couple of weeks ago, but I couldn't find one. I think I used to have one, but I never used it so I gave it away to charity.

The extent of my "hand craft" is sewing buttons back on.

[LBengtsson]

barmar, on 2020-May-02, 20:49, said:

I looked at Etsy, that seems like a good source. One of them asked for a size, I have no idea what my head size is so I chose a different one. Estimated delivery May 6-19.

I searched my wardrobe for a scarf a couple of weeks ago, but I couldn't find one. I think I used to have one, but I never used it so I gave it away to charity.

The extent of my "hand craft" is sewing buttons back on.

I am motorcyclist. I use doublefold like cowboy big cotton bandanna over mouth and nose. 27 x 27. also dust mask under. wash easy and dry quick after each journey. I can breath ok. good protection.

[pilowsky]

You have bigger problems than coronavirus.

[cherdano]

I am afraid this belongs in the other thread, too, but I will post it here. Let me get out of my normal cynical/slightly trollish mode here

There are huge discrepancies in how countries handled the early outbreak. That's worth a separate post, but here I will just say that while some did much better than others (in my view), and some of them deserve heavy criticism that isn't just based on hindsight, just a little bit of contemporary common sense---still, it was a completely new situation, where completely unprecedented measures needed to be deployed at a speed beyond anything that ever happens in democratic politics. (When we heard of the strict quarantine in Wuhan, I think most of us thought "Obviously that could never be done here!")

Now, all countries I follow seem to behave much more reasonably. The goal right now is to get down the number of infections as low as possible first. Then once they are at a manageable level, you hope that you can employ effective test-trace-isolate, keeping R at or below one with measures that are still drastic at the individual level (Stay home until I am tested just because I spent 2 hours next to an infected person?? Again?!?? Unthinkable 3 months ago!!!) but allow much more of the society (or "economy", if you prefer to think in monetary terms) to function almost normally. I am not sure we can all become South Korea or Hongkong (I wouldn't be shocked if someone discovered that many more people there have background immunity against SARS-Cov-2 from previous coronavirus infections.), but it's infinitely better than the alternative.

Well, all countries with one big exception, the US. The goal of US policy is ... ??? Letting most people get infected, hoping that the lower estimates of the lethality rate is right, and that only 328 million * 70% * 0.4% = 0.9 million people die? Or to keep the pandemic alive well enough so that 50,000/month die until there is a vaccine? All the while ensuring long-term damage to the economy, because most will still be afraid to go to the hairdresser/theater/restaurant/...???

It seems insane, and a policy disaster at a scale unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

[Trinidad]

I would definitely not compare the response in the European countries to that of the USA. At least here, there was a response.

However, I do feel that in Europe we are going in the wrong direction. The mathematicians tell us to hang in there for an other 6-8 weeks or so and we are in the test-trace-isolate regime where we can open up the economy (almost) completely. Meanwhile the pressure from lobbies and social groups is enormous to open things up immediately.

But if the general population has no understanding of how an exponential function behaves, it will be difficult to implement the right policies.

Rik

[johnu]

cherdano, on 2020-May-05, 02:58, said:

Well, all countries with one big exception, the US. The goal of US policy is ... ??? Letting most people get infected, hoping that the lower estimates of the lethality rate is right, and that only 328 million * 70% * 0.4% = 0.9 million people die? Or to keep the pandemic alive well enough so that 50,000/month die until there is a vaccine? All the while ensuring long-term damage to the economy, because most will still be afraid to go to the hairdresser/theater/restaurant/...???

It seems insane, and a policy disaster at a scale unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

You can adjust your formula in a number of ways, but the bottom line for the Grifter in Chief is that only 2 million deaths (one of the earliest worst case estimates) will be an outstanding success. In any case, half of those deaths are because of Obama's decisions to not prepare the country for COVID-19 and the other half is China's fault . The goal of US policy has not changed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. That goal from day 1 was to reelect the Manchurian President by a record margin in the electoral college.

That's why restarting the economy is the top priority even though virtually none of the CDC guidelines for reopening the US have been close to being met.

[y66]

cherdano, on 2020-May-05, 02:58, said:

The goal of US policy is ... ??? It seems insane, and a policy disaster at a scale unlike anything we have seen since WW2.

Seems?