[cherdano]

There've been reports that some regions of England now have Rt > 1. But fear not:

Yup, according to Her Majesty's government's data, most of covid-19 is nowhere to be found.

[cherdano]

 cherdano, on 2020-June-16, 18:15, said:

Wonderful news. Now just 30 more breakthroughs like this, and also much better treatments for milder cases, and covid-19 will indeed be just as dangerous as the flu.

In case this wasn't clear, I was sarcastic here. This study is good news, and a real improvement, but it's certainly not a "game changer" as it was made out to be in some press conferences. (The estimate of 5,000 saved deaths in the UK is almost certainly a large overestimate. It'd roughly make sense if everyone who died was on a ventilator first, and if none of them got steroids - neither of which seems true.)


"Sir, if you cross that road, there is a 2.3% chance you will die from a car crashing into you." - "Hell, no, why would I do that."
"Apologies, I forgot - our ambulance service has been expanded recently, they will likely be here with 1 minute instead of 2 minutes, and your chances of dying have been reduced to 2.1%" - "Wow, great, let's go!"

[pilowsky]

If you wondering why the graph looks like this, it's not a reporting or testing artefact. If it was, the case report graph would look the same.

[hrothgar]

 pilowsky, on 2020-June-17, 19:20, said:

If you wondering why the graph looks like this, it's not a reporting or testing artefact. If it was, the case report graph would look the same.

Run an fft on the data and tell me what you see...

(Or, if you want to jump ahead, run a seven day moving average)

[pilowsky]

If I wanted to hide the important information (aliasing) then sure, I could do a moving average. Do one over 12 months and you will get a straight line. Ask anyone that works on the front line in a hospital and they will help you out with the real explanation. It has nothing to do this mathematics or reporting or statistics or Nyquist.

[helene_t]

We now have 9 cases in NZ, after having reached 0 a couple of weeks ago.

All of them are arrivers who were in quarantine (two of them were allowed out of quarantine for one day due to some weird mishap). They had to trace 300+ contacts of the couple that was allowed out of quarantine. But even if the rules are followed, there's still a risk of community transmission from airline staff or from passengers infected during flight who test falsely negative.

It occurred to me that it would be much better if people were quarantined before departure rather than after arrival: go to an airport hotel and sit there for two weeks without any contacts, get tested on day 3 and 14, if both tests are negative off you go.

Advantages:
- Other passengers and airline staff not at risk
- People who refuse being tested or who need urgent care during quarantine are not a problem, they are just not going to fly

Of course, we would still have to quarantine people on arrival if they come from a country that can't be trusted to have effective quarantine-before-departure. So maybe it would be difficult to keep Auckland International terminal Covid free. But if Australia (for example) agreed to quarantine passengers to NZ, we could let Australian flights disembark at the domestic terminal.

Is this a good idea or have I overlooked something?

[sfi]

 helene_t, on 2020-June-22, 19:05, said:

Is this a good idea or have I overlooked something?

Well, you're trusting Australia for one thing.

[y66]

Steve Inskeep at National Public Radio said:

Italy’s outbreak has dramatically ebbed from its mid-March peak, while America’s new per capita cases remain on par with Italy's worst day — and show signs of rising further. Meaning Italy’s worst day is now a normal US day.

https://www.politico...onavirus-333122

[smerriman]

 sfi, on 2020-June-22, 19:20, said:

Well, you're trusting Australia for one thing.

There's also the issues of paying for accommodation, which is starting to become a talking point even in our own country.. and getting people from the hotel through an airport to the plane without any contact at all doesn't sound like an easy task (or even keeping them contactless in an airport hotel to begin with).

[pilowsky]

By the way, what exactly is a "talking point". Many years ago someone said to me "Paul, then one thing led to another and before I knew what was happening...". So, I was wondering, aposiopesically speaking, if that was what a talking point was, or if it was something else...

[Zelandakh]

 pilowsky, on 2020-June-23, 01:28, said:

By the way, what exactly is a "talking point".

Talking point is American for spin. It refers to ideas a party wants to get out into the media to direct the way voters think about a person or issue.

[pilowsky]

"In the 20th century, American novelist Alan Harrington illustrated a real and lasting depiction when he said, "Public relations specialists make flower arrangements of the facts, placing them so the wilted and less attractive petals are hidden by sturdy blooms." To this day we watch as spin doctors continue to misuse their privileges, undermining the ideals of democracy one campaign at a time. This is a great concern. As a devoted democratic citizen I believe those in power need to expose us to these 'less attractive petals' because after all, democracy gives us the right to information symmetry and to live in a society based on objectivity."
I suspect you may be mixing up your figures of speech (would that be a sphixaphor?). Kellyanne Conway, and now Kayleigh McEnany, both from the Alastair Campbell school of antonymical speech. "Would I lie to you!". Kellyanne's famous "Donald Trump is not a liar...He simply says the opposite of what is true" and her alternative facts are surreal and compelling in their dark Orwellian beauty. When a politician has a 'talking point' they are like a dog with a bone. I once ran for parliament. We were taught to prepare a point and stick with undeterred by any question that we might be asked. This is quite different from what the 2 K's do. Like Trump they just look at you and tell you that black is white.
So good news my friend. At least this time, The evil that these men do seems to have been created in America. Even if it's most subtle exponent - Campbell - was a Yorkshireman.

[y66]

From the NYT's Coronavirus Briefing newsletter:

Quote

For the first time in more than a month, four top public health officials leading the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus testified before Congress.

Our colleague Noah Weiland, who covers health care for The Times, watched the hearing and said he was struck by the scene — the officials sat far apart, in front of Lysol containers and hand sanitizer bottles, and wore masks nearly the entire time — as well as by how much the officials refuted President Trump’s rosy assessment of the state of the virus.

“What you saw today was the four officials acting very independently on behalf of themselves and their agencies,” Noah told us. “They looked like they were operating kind of on a parallel track to the president.”

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told lawmakers that the U.S. was experiencing a “disturbing surge” of infections after states reopened too quickly and without adequate plans for testing and contact tracing. Over all, he said, the situation in the U.S. was a “mixed bag,” with areas like New York substantially reducing cases, while infections spike in other states.

“The next couple of weeks are going to be critical in our ability to address those surges we are seeing in Florida, Texas, Arizona and other states,” Dr. Fauci said.

The officials were also asked to respond to Mr. Trump’s recent claim that he had asked “my people” to “slow the testing down” because the number of cases was making the country look bad. Dr. Fauci said that no one asked him to slow down testing. Adm. Brett P. Giroir, once the administration’s testing czar, said they were doing “just the opposite — we want to do more testing and of higher quality.”

Noah said the officials also warned Americans — who may have relaxed on social distancing measures in recent weeks — that they needed to continue following guidelines.

“What we saw today was these officials saying we’re basically in the third inning. Several of them indicated that there’s likely to be a pretty vicious second wave of this virus in some form later this year,” Noah said. “They were setting expectations for how long the pandemic may take to wither, telling people that participation in various kinds of mass gatherings is just not safe yet.”

[pilowsky]

"four top public health officials leading the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus testified before Congress."
I don't think I have seen so many lies, half-truths and misrepresentations packed into one small phrase since Kayleigh MacEnany promised never to lie to White House Press Corps. Were there even just four of them there?

[y66]

From WaPo:

Quote

Vice President Pence urged GOP senators on Wednesday to focus on “encouraging signs” despite a recent spike in coronavirus cases in numerous states as various localities move swiftly to reopen their economies, according to several people present.

Pence made the remarks in a closed-door lunch with Republican senators on Capitol Hill as lawmakers have begun to express alarm because of rising infection rates in Florida, Arizona, Texas and several other states, some of which are likely to be critical to the outcome of the presidential race in the fall and control of the Senate. On Wednesday, five states hit new highs in coronavirus hospitalizations.

Multiple senators said Pence pointed to positive indicators, including the fact that while infections are rising, the mortality rate is not. That is partly because there is more testing, and younger and healthier people now account for larger shares of those getting tested, Pence said.

Pence told senators that only 3 percent of counties nationwide — and only 12 states — are actually experiencing case increases. Those figures don’t align with tallies by The Washington Post, which show increased cases in around 20 or more states and marked increases in 5 percent or more of counties.

“I think compared to where we were, we’re in a much better situation, but everybody knows it’s very fragile and we’ve got to stay after it,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) told reporters as he left the lunch.

According to NYT, 27 states are seeing growth in newly reported cases over the last 14 days.

According to my calculations using NYT data at 'bigquery-public-data.covid19_nyt.us_counties', 386 U.S. counties (12.3%) have more than 50 new cases in the last 14 days and more new cases in the last 14 days than in the previous 14 days, not 3%.

[pilowsky]

At this stage, it's like watching the titanic sinking and working out the percentage of lifejackets available for the passengers in steerage compared to those that paid for 1st class tickets. The whole thing is a complete shambles run by an incompetent self-serving rambling buffoon, his idiot son-in-law and coterie of cretins. Even the rats that have deserted the sinking ship are desperately trying to make some money and steal the silverware on the way out. Who cares about calculations anymore. Hurry Tuesday.

[y66]

From Bloomberg:

Quote

We asked Bloomberg Opinion columnists and contributors who are based outside the U.S. for their take on how the rest of the world views efforts to contain the coronavirus in America, where even the decision to wear a mask is seen as a political statement.

Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion from Milan. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times:

I certainly would not feel safe travelling to the U.S. Italy was one of the early centers of the pandemic, and while its government enforced a lockdown relatively late, it eventually took some draconian steps for two months, including shutting schools and factories. Italy also took a gradual approach to reopening, which occurred over a month. New registered cases are now growing at a daily rate of approximately 0.1%, and they are mostly concentrated in the northern region of Lombardy. Life is slowly returning to normal. In contrast, many U.S. states enforced short and loose lockdowns. The situation appears to only be getting better in those areas that clamped down harder, such as New York.

Also, I do not really trust the U.S. health-care system. America has some of the very best professionals and hospitals in the world, but lacks a centralized structure that gives you confidence that the country as a whole can counter the pandemic effectively. Italy has a regional health-care system, so there have been coordination problems, especially with regard to the collection of data. However, the National Health Institute has offered consistent guidance to the government, both on the lockdown and on possible treatments. I hope that a legacy of the Covid-19 epidemic in the U.S. is a debate over the need to create some form of national health system.

Mihir Sharma is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist based in New Delhi. He was a columnist for the Indian Express and the Business Standard, and he is the author of “Restart: The Last Chance for the Indian Economy”:

Seen from India, the chaotic and patchwork approach the U.S. has taken to battling the Covid-19 pandemic is both confusing and familiar. Here, we have replaced the world’s most stringent lockdown with a largely uncontrolled reopening. The shutdown did not really manage to bend the curve downwards, as happened in Europe. But, unlike developed countries in Europe, we believe we simply can’t afford to close down the economy for too long. What doesn’t make sense is why the U.S. is doing the same thing. Congress did its job, as many U.S. workers received the aid they need to get by for now. In India, we can’t reach the vast majority of migrant workers, among others, through our welfare system.

What looks familiar is the strange patchwork approach that comes from having powerful state administrations making most decisions. Yet, while some Indian states have been much more careful than others about contact tracing and quarantining, none is being openly careless or dismissive. This, combined with a strange machismo about mask-wearing that seems to be spreading through parts of the U.S., makes the country look like a much more dangerous place to be than Europe or parts of East Asia.

In the end, both of our nations are confronting steadily increasing case numbers and the prospect not of a “second wave,” as such, but an ever-intensifying health crisis. The difference is that we have a leadership that, regardless of political party, has taken the pandemic seriously. We always knew poorer countries would struggle to control their case numbers. What’s appalling and sobering is that the world’s richest economy is doing so badly.

Tim Culpan is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology from Taipei. He previously covered technology for Bloomberg News:

On Jan. 22, just as China was about to shut down the city of Wuhan, I was transiting through a quiet and eerie Hong Kong airport bound for New York. Having covered the SARS breakout 17 years earlier, I knew how bad an epidemic could be. Over the next few weeks, as the outbreak spread through Asia, I figured the U.S. would be safer than Taiwan where I’ve been living for two decades. I delayed my return to Taipei until early February for fear of what awaited back home. Five months later, I’m safely in a place that’s never had a lockdown because it never needed one. Take a look at the data on coronavirus cases in Taiwan and you quickly understand how people here view the crisis both at home and abroad. It's been more than 70 days since there was a local infection.

For decades, the U.S. was seen as a dream destination for study, work and tourism. Now, Taiwanese returnees share tales of their “great escape" from the U.S. back to a place where healthcare is universal, cheap and high quality. They talk with admiration about Taiwan's beloved health minister, Chen Shih-chung, a man little-known before the crisis. These days, America is no longer the place to be but the place to avoid. It beggars belief that U.S. leaders are more focused on point-scoring and playing to their base than making sound public-health decisions. It’s too easy to say that American democracy makes it harder to manage a crisis and dictate how people should act. But Taiwan is a democracy, too, and a rowdy one at that. However, the government’s competence in recognizing the threat and acting quickly gave opposition parties little opportunity to build political capital.

Early yet limited curbs enforced four months ago -- such as social distancing and mandated mask use on public transport -- mean that nightclubs, bars and beaches are crowded today with little risk to public safety. Many Taiwanese wonder whether recent moves to relax border restrictions are wise, and would be happy to keep the gates closed and the masks on if it means preventing Taiwan from becoming like America. As with millions of Taiwanese, I love New York, but there’s no way I’d go back to the U.S. anytime soon.

Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies from Singapore. Previously he was executive editor of Bloomberg News for global economics, and has led teams in Asia, Europe and North America:

Friends in Singapore, where I have lived for 18 months, greet the spike in American infections with a combination of trepidation and amazement: trepidation that the U.S. is on the cusp of a disastrous second wave, with the attendant global economic consequences, and amazement that parts of the country are pressing ahead with reopening regardless. Hovering over all this is incredulity that the U.S., which most here still see as a great nation and important counterweight to China, is engaged in a culture war over something as straightforward as wearing a mask.

Singapore is gradually emerging from a two-month lockdown that has curtailed coronavirus infections. Masks, social distancing, mandatory sign-ins through a tracing app, and handing over identity cards on demand seem like prudent steps in disease containment. In a city-state where a majority of its 5.7 million live in high-rise public housing or condominiums, outbreaks of infectious disease are an existential issue. To be sure, there’s also little choice, as transgressions invite fines or prosecution.

Would I visit the U.S. today? In a heartbeat, provided I felt I could get back to my family in a timely manner. But with many borders still closed, that’s a big “if.” I was born in Australia and became a U.S. citizen a few years ago. My wife and children are American. There’s a sense the U.S. is wasting precious time. I sympathize with these concerns, but I learned from a decade in Washington that America is a tough place to govern even in the best of times.

Nisha Gopalan is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals and banking in Asia from Hong Kong. She previously worked for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones as an editor and a reporter:

I’d be in no hurry to travel to the U.S. from Hong Kong. The view of most people is that the U.S. is way too complacent. Sitting on the edge of mainland China, where the Covid pandemic began, Hong Kong has had just 1,161 infections and six fatalities. Small wonder that Hong Kongers look at the multiplying numbers in the U.S. with horror. The first infection in this city of 7.5 million was Jan. 23 and the first death came on Feb. 4. These days, the smattering of new cases are almost all residents who have returned from overseas.

People in Hong Kong find the U.S. ambivalence over masks hard to understand. One friend describes America as “the worst place to visit right now.” Another views the country as “out of control,” with states opening too early. Even with local infections virtually nonexistent at this point, close to 100% of the people in Hong Kong are still wearing masks, with joggers among the rare exceptions. Hand sanitizer is now commonly found on restaurant tables and in the lobbies of office skyscrapers and residential buildings. Office bathrooms have filled with people obsessively washing hands, residents started using keys and toothpicks to press elevator buttons, and the wearing of masks has become socially obligatory outdoors and on subway trains.

Andreas Kluth is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion in Berlin. He was previously editor in chief of Handelsblatt Global and a writer for the Economist. He's the author of "Hannibal and Me":

Germans were aghast at the U.S. under President Donald Trump even before Covid-19 and the killing of George Floyd. Now this American triple crisis – Trump, pestilence, racism – regularly tops the evening news here, often displacing even issues much closer to home. In part, that’s because Trump reserves so much of his ire for this country, and for Chancellor Angela Merkel. Just this month, he confirmed that he plans to withdraw about one in four American troops based here.

Merkel looks increasingly like a dramatic foil to Trump: To Germans he appears narcissistic, vain and anti-intellectual, whereas she comes across as understated, wonkish and meticulous. He disdains his own experts and scientists; Merkel, a quantum physicist by training, respects hers. He seeks conflict with U.S. governors and political opponents; she constantly mediates between Germany’s regional leaders to maintain consensus. He divides, she unites. As a result, Germany currently appears to have Covid-19 under control, whereas the U.S. seems to have given up on even trying. Like many people around here, I’m not planning to travel stateside any time soon, but will ride out the pandemic in relative safety here.

Mac Margolis is a Rio de Janeiro-based writer for Bloomberg Opinion who covers Latin America. He was previously a reporter for Newsweek and is the author of “The Last New World: The Conquest of the Amazon Frontier”:

Like many of their Latin American neighbors, Brazilians have looked to the U.S. with conflicted passions. That’s because the land of Disney, the iPhone SE and sanctuary cities is also the nation of border walls, ICE and a botched response to the coronavirus pandemic. President Trump has done little to improve the brand. Well before the onset of the twin global health and economic emergencies, Latin American trust in the U.S. and especially in its leader was already slipping.

Yet even as Brazilian disenchantment with the hegemon up north has conceivably deepened, the parallel shortcomings of their own President Jair Bolsonaro, an unabashed Trumpophile, have helped to keep any neighborly contempt and schadenfreude in check. When George Floyd’s death sparked antiracism protests across the U.S., Brazilians were close behind with their own marches and hashtags. Black and Brown Brazilians comprise 53% of the nation’s 211 million people but 75% of the poorest tenth of the population, two-thirds of the unemployed and up to four times more fatalities than Whites from Covid-19. They also find themselves the victims not just of systemic prejudice and hair trigger policing, but also one of the most pernicious national lullabies: the myth of Brazil as a racial democracy.

[y66]

Nate Silver said:

Something to think about: re-openings have been occurring gradually since late April in different states/counties. If you had a metric averaging out how open different states are, it would likely show a fairly linear pattern. So why is there a nonlinear increase in cases now?

Quote

Obviously some of that gets to the nature of exponential growth. An R of 1.3 isn't *that* different than an R of 1.1, but played out over a few weeks, it makes a lot of difference. Still, a more complete story probably includes premature re-openings coupled with other stuff.

Quote

What other stuff? Two things seem worth pointing out. First, there seems to be some correlation with greater spread in states where it's hot and people are spending more time indoors with the AC on. That *is* a bit nonlinear; there's much more demand for AC in June than May.

Quote

And second, the conversation around social distancing changed a lot in early June with the protests and Trump making plans to resume his rallies. And COVID was no longer the lead story. Not blaming anyone here. But the timing is pertinent if people felt like "lockdowns are over".

[o__nikos]

Do you know if there are Bridge Play Clubs operating today? (worldwide)

I know of three, in Athens and suburbs, Greece. Others?

[awm]

Switzerland’s bridge clubs have been open for a couple weeks now.