[rhm]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 05:16, said:

What do you propose to rebid over 1♥-2♣ ? (in a weak NT Acol style context)

2NT (assuming that shows now more than 14)

Rainer Herrmann

[msjennifer]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 05:16, said:

Utterly disagree, my thought when seeing the hand was "this is more like a 14 count than a 15 count" and K&R merely confirmed this, the intermediates are way below average.

I'd like to see a simulation opposite a wide selection of balanced and semi balanced 10 counts (that aren't obvious upgrades or downgrades) as to whether you want to be in game single dummy.

What do you propose to rebid over 1♥-2♣ ? (in a weak NT Acol style context)

Sir ,pardon me for side tracking.If one opens the hand 1H and responder bids 2C then there is a fully descriptive rebid of 2NT available.Thanks.

[Cyberyeti]

msjennifer, on 2020-February-11, 05:47, said:

Sir ,pardon me for side tracking.If one opens the hand 1H and responder bids 2C then there is a fully descriptive rebid of 2NT available.Thanks.

This is game forcing in Acol 15-19 for many people, and will get you to game opposite a lot of 9 counts where you really don't want to be

[cvcherry]

I don't open 1NT with 5 majors 95% of the time, which is not modern style now. But this hand is obviously that 5% which I will open 1NT.

[rhm]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 05:16, said:

Utterly disagree, my thought when seeing the hand was "this is more like a 14 count than a 15 count" and K&R merely confirmed this, the intermediates are way below average.

I'd like to see a simulation opposite a wide selection of balanced and semi balanced 10 counts (that aren't obvious upgrades or downgrades) as to whether you want to be in game single dummy.

In general if two balanced hands bid 3NT with a combined 25 HCP the chances of making is around 50%
I did such a simulation with the West hand as given and East being balanced or semi balanced, 10 HCP and 2 or 3 cards in hearts.

Result(1000 random deals):
3NT made on 604 deals (60.4%)
Average number of tricks: 8.743

Single dummy with no revealing auction like 1NT-3NT the success rate will be even higher because of declarers advantage in 3NT

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2020-February-11, 07:01, said:

In general if two balanced hands bid 3NT with a combined 25 HCP the chances of making is around 50%
I did such a simulation with the West hand as given and East being balanced or semi balanced, 10 HCP and 2 or 3 cards in hearts.

Result(1000 random deals):
3NT made on 604 deals (60.4%)
Average of number of tricks: 8.743

Single dummy with no revealing auction like 1NT-3NT the success rate will be even higher because of declarers advantage in 3NT

Rainer Herrmann

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible and that can be a 9 count,I think many do what we do and play 10 with 4 or 9 with 5 for a 2/1.

[rhm]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 07:10, said:

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible

Since when is 31(45) balanced or semi balanced?
You asked for a simulation with East being balanced or semi balanced.
I obliged and now you complain?

Rainer Herrmann

[nekthen]

I will assume I am dealer
Playing Acol weak NT for me this is 1N
Playing SAYC I am inclined to 1N also

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2020-February-11, 07:13, said:

Since when is 31(45) balanced or semi balanced?
You asked for a simulation with East being balanced or semi balanced.
I obliged and now you complain?

Rainer Herrmann

31(45)s are a different problem,and worse if you happen to run into them, because the hands can be weaker

I would need to see the detailed results of the sim, but I find them very odd, given that some good looking 10s give really crap play (Jx, Kx, xxxx, KQJ10x for example). I'm also not sure about your assertion that declarer has the advantage here, picking up the clubs opposite KJ109x every time double dummy for example, and the auction will be one where in a weak NT context, 2 suits will have been bid. Also the flaw in the sim is that you also needed to put in 3 or less spades or you won't get a 2m response unless possibly 42(52) (and I specified 2m was the one I was worried about), and because you have a doubleton spade, this means 3N is less likely to be good.

[bluenikki]

phoenixmj, on 2020-February-09, 23:42, said:

---

You didn't specify form of scoring.

If partner is going to pass a 1!h, you are highly likely to go minus in 1NT, whiile you may scramble a plus in 1!H. But you can't allow that worry to affect you.

If partner has 4 !h and 7 pts, opening 1NT may miss a game. Or even many 6 pt hands. This is a serious risk of the 1NT opening.

But opening 1!h in most other situations will leave you worrying whether partner really has a clear notion of what you have.

[miamijd]

I grew up in Columbus, Ohio, and Mikeh stated something Jeff told me back in the mid-80s. When opening a hand, if you have a choice between a slight underbid and a slight overbid, make the overbid every time. In other words, often upgrade; never downgrade. It makes things much easier on subsequent rounds (you just keep showing a minimum, rather than feeling like you have to catch up). This doesn't necessarily apply so much in later rounds, where there can be good reasons to downgrade your hand, but when opening the bidding, it's a really sound approach.

With 15 or 16 balanced, generally open 1NT even with a five-card major. It's almost always right to do this at IMPs (where the suit has to play two tricks better) and generally right in MPs (even though the suit only has to play one trick better there).

With 17 high balanced with a 5-card major, it's generally right to upgrade to 18 and open 1M. You'll miss too many good games if you open these hands 1NT (e.g., partner has 7-8 high and four-card support).

Cheers,
Mike

[msjennifer]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 06:11, said:

This is game forcing in Acol 15-19 for many people, and will get you to game opposite a lot of 9 counts where you really don't want to be

Sir, thanks indeed.I do not play ACOL but it appears from your reply that they open a four card major often when they get such a hand but then if responder bids 2C and ,as you say.a 2NT bid by opener is game forcing then certainly with 15 HCP with 11+plus with responder a game will always be bid in this or that strain.As also if one is afraid that this is not a game forcing hand then the easiest rebid is 2H to show a five card suit. A 2C bid with just 9 HCP is very uncommon unless the responder desires to play in a 3C contract.And on this particular hand ,with Axx in Club one should not mind bidding 3NT.(Or at least I do not).And as I clearly mentioned that hands can be artificially constructed where either opening is correct/wrong and a preparatory 1C opening will hit the jackpot.The hand has 6 Losers and these with 8 losers announced by the 2C response most certainly can be played at 3/4 level in any suit with responder(club in this case.).THANKS.

[ruleof15]

phoenixmj, on 2020-February-09, 23:42, said:

---

[ruleof15]

I open all 15-17 HCP balanced (4-3-3-3 w/1 card moved)1NT. There is no other way to inform partner of this holding in HCP. As for this hand, I don't want to rebid the heart suit.
Opener's only job in an auction is to describe their hand as quickly as possible so responder can place the contract. Having any concern about what responder will do is inconsequential.

[PhilG007]

Its now common practice to open a strong NT which could contain a 5 card major suit. I prefer
the No Trump opening simply because it gets the hand off your chest in 1 bid. Partner knows you are
15-i7 with a balanced hand. Opening 1♥ however tells a different story 12-19 hcps with at least
5 cards in hearts. I believe in the adage "Stand up Speak up Shut up"

[Cyberyeti]

msjennifer, on 2020-February-11, 13:11, said:

Sir, thanks indeed.I do not play ACOL but it appears from your reply that they open a four card major often when they get such a hand but then if responder bids 2C and ,as you say.a 2NT bid by opener is game forcing then certainly with 15 HCP with 11+plus with responder a game will always be bid in this or that strain.As also if one is afraid that this is not a game forcing hand then the easiest rebid is 2H to show a five card suit. A 2C bid with just 9 HCP is very uncommon unless the responder desires to play in a 3C contract.And on this particular hand ,with Axx in Club one should not mind bidding 3NT.(Or at least I do not).And as I clearly mentioned that hands can be artificially constructed where either opening is correct/wrong and a preparatory 1C opening will hit the jackpot.The hand has 6 Losers and these with 8 losers announced by the 2C response most certainly can be played at 3/4 level in any suit with responder(club in this case.).THANKS.

There are two styles of Acol, our 1♥ is only 4 if 3433 or 44(32) 15-bad 19, we open the minor with 4M4m32 but many others open the major which is what traditional Acol does, we play a wide range 1N rebid over 1x-1y with a range enquiry so like to use that and open the minor. Btw traditional Acol routinely 2/1d with an 8 count but few do that now.

[AL78]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-February-11, 07:10, said:

Actually no reason to assume he has 2 hearts, 31(45) is very plausible and that can be a 9 count,I think many do what we do and play 10 with 4 or 9 with 5 for a 2/1.

If I held 3145 shape and a 9 count opposite a 1♥ opening, I would lean towards responding 1NT (6-9) than bidding 2 over 1. I don't mind slightly underbidding when there is a real danger it is a misfit deal.

[Cyberyeti]

AL78, on 2020-February-11, 17:42, said:

If I held 3145 shape and a 9 count opposite a 1♥ opening, I would lean towards responding 1NT (6-9) than bidding 2 over 1. I don't mind slightly underbidding when there is a real danger it is a misfit deal.

Traditional Acol passes this with 15-16 balanced which is pretty common, I can live with passing with 15, but it may well not be good with a respectable 16. For us it's 5-9.

[iandayre]

This is a very weak 15 point hand, and lacks 3 Spades. I would open 1H and rebid 1NT over 1S.

[phoenixmj]

I did open this hand 1NT and it proved to be a bad idea as we did have a heart suit fit, but partner did not have enough points to do puppet staymen which we play as a 3c bid over 1NT.

I am reading a somewhat LONG diatribe about 1NT openings and responses. I am not sure if I would have opened this 1NT before reading that diatribe. It talked about tenaces and that with tenaces you want to be receiving the lead, and the best way to have that happen is to open no trump. Similarly, a king doubleton, you want to receive the lead. Then there is the rebid issue - with a suit open you need a rebid. All those reasons caused me to open 1NT. It is reassuring that those reasons occurred in the answers here - perhaps I am following the right track.

The game we were playing in had about 30 percent Canadians, and they tend to play weak NT openings. So, they likely opened this 1H. In this case it worked well for them. So, about 30 percent of the people played hearts and the rest NT - which did not fare as well as hearts. So, I was curious if people who know a LOT more than me would have opened it 1NT - and I am seeing that many would. So, I guess it is just another situation where making the right bid does not necessarily work out.

Thanks for all of the responses. It definitely made for interesting reading.