KingCovert, on 2020-March-13, 11:52, said:
The 3♠ is, I think, an easy lead if you weigh the right considerations. 1NT over the double is not the same as 1NT without the double. You should expect that dummy is something like 2425 or 2524. Declarer doesn't know this when they bid 2♦, but, after the suit preference, it's pretty clear. 1NT with a singleton diamond is lunacy, and correcting to spades is also silly if they had 3 diamonds. So, it's super limited.
So, we have nice diamonds, we need to prevent dummy from ruffing any of them out. Partner is marked for seemingly 5 spades. So, the hand should go spade lead, probably won by declarer/dummy, diamond switch by declarer, you win it, you then try to break hearts or clubs as appropriate (look at dummy) and try get partner in to collect the last trump in dummy prior to the ruff of any diamonds by dummy.
I am not arguing about the lead as such. I came late to the thread so my opinion is tainted by seeing the hand. I do diapsagreecwith your analysis of likely shape for responder. While some 5422 is possible, IMO it is more likely that LHO has 2=3 in the pointed suits.
I assume MPs scoring, but the argument is similar at imps.
Opener does not promise 5=5, and 5=4 likely plays as well or better in the 5=2 than the 4=3, should opener be 5=4
Plus, and more important at MPs than imps, spades, when making, will often outscore diamonds
Finally, and important at both forms of scoring, 1N is typically a constructive bid, and 2D could be a fairly strong hand, while opener would usually raise notrump with, say, a 15 count 5242, he may have a decent 5=5, unwilling to commit to notrump, or even a decent 5431 hand. 2S gives him a chance, having shown diamonds, to invite game.
Thus responder should, IMO, almost always take the false preference to spades with 2=3 in the pointed suits
This doesn’t, in and of itself, negate a trump nor does it make the diamond A lead an obvious choice, but I do think that the spade is nit as clear as you suggest.
Tbh, and bearing in mind my caveat above, I suspect I’d lead a low heart. Partner is marked with some values, since we’re defending 2S, and I’d be hoping either for the A in partner)s hand or the Queen, with the Ace in dummy. Since the heart lead is a disaster, at least I can’t be accused of masterminding, lol.
FWIW, I detest the 1N bid, I’m indifferent about north’s pass due to having soft values (and not many of them), and would not have introduced that weak, short diamond suit, as opener, especially since South will almost always hold some length/strength there and I have little (basically no) game interest. This is not a good 15 on the auction. Were I AKJ9x xx A109x Kx, I’d like my hand quite a bit more, and would bid 2D.
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