Every Day Decision What do you do and why do you do it?
#1
Posted 2021-August-01, 10:02
#2
Posted 2021-August-01, 12:13
#3
Posted 2021-August-01, 12:54
I like AL78 analysis but not sure is quite right. good defenders will find ♦ ruff if ♦ are 3-1 so that is not in equation.
#4
Posted 2021-August-01, 15:40
Also, if LHO has led from the king, running the lead to the queen also allows a better chance to make if the hearts are 4-1.
So my thinking is that running the club to the queen is the best choice.
#5
Posted 2021-August-01, 19:16
And if you don't draw three rounds of trump the danger of a D ruff is still there.
Now if Lho is a devotee of "Never lead away from a K " then it's a different story. But people do lead from kings and if he has done so then you will probably go down if you rise with the A and draw trumps.
And, as you note, if the club K is on your right defeat is not certain if you duck and victory is not certain of you hop up. When Ds are 2-2 you will usually make even if you duck.
#6
Posted 2021-August-02, 11:30
kenberg, on 2021-August-01, 19:16, said:
And if you don't draw three rounds of trump the danger of a D ruff is still there.
Now if Lho is a devotee of "Never lead away from a K " then it's a different story. But people do lead from kings and if he has done so then you will probably go down if you rise with the A and draw trumps.
And, as you note, if the club K is on your right defeat is not certain if you duck and victory is not certain of you hop up. When Ds are 2-2 you will usually make even if you duck.
If the club king is on the right along with the singleton diamond jack you guarantee (if the hearts are 3-2 ) your contract by playing the ace. You lose 2 aces and can cross to dummy in diamonds to lead a club toward the queen, which you can also do with diamonds 2-2.
You lose 2 aces but only 1 club - as long as the king is on your right.
#7
Posted 2021-August-02, 15:48
Winstonm, on 2021-August-02, 11:30, said:
You lose 2 aces but only 1 club - as long as the king is on your right.
You might well lose 2 diamonds.
Assume the Ds are 3-1 and the person with the stiff D has three hearts. So after you take the club A, I assume that you draw all three rounds of trump to avoid the ruff. You are in your hand and you do what? If you lead a spade they take it, cash a club and lead another club. You are in. Now what? They have two tricks, you are in your hand, someone has AJx if Ds, Even if they take the diamond K they are not endplayed, The exit with a club, they wait for their J.
If you start with the diamond K, the A goes up, the club K is cashed, they cash the spade, another club is played. You are in your hand with no way to the board and you have lost three tricks. Someone still holds the Jx of diamonds.
So it seems to me anyway. I have not given it to Gib, but ask yourself what do you do after you rise with the club A and play off three rounds of trump? I
#8
Posted 2021-August-02, 21:53
kenberg, on 2021-August-02, 15:48, said:
Assume the Ds are 3-1 and the person with the stiff D has three hearts. So after you take the club A, I assume that you draw all three rounds of trump to avoid the ruff. You are in your hand and you do what? If you lead a spade they take it, cash a club and lead another club. You are in. Now what? They have two tricks, you are in your hand, someone has AJx if Ds, Even if they take the diamond K they are not endplayed, The exit with a club, they wait for their J.
If you start with the diamond K, the A goes up, the club K is cashed, they cash the spade, another club is played. You are in your hand with no way to the board and you have lost three tricks. Someone still holds the Jx of diamonds.
So it seems to me anyway. I have not given it to Gib, but ask yourself what do you do after you rise with the club A and play off three rounds of trump? I
Ken,
You are seemingly not reading what I wrote when I responded - I specifically stated if the diamond jack is singleton or the diamonds are 2-2. If so, you can get to dummy in diamonds to lead a club toward your queen.
Thanks 😊
#9
Posted 2021-August-03, 08:09
Suppose I play low and the Q wins. Very likely I am making this hand. I play a club to the A and a spade from the board. If someone hops up with the A and they get a D ruff I don't care since then my remaining Ds are good. moreover, if trumps are 4-1 the stiff D is unlikely to be with the stiff H so that ruff leaves the Ds as 3-1. Or maybe at T2 they take the A and do not get a ruff. Say the lead a trump. I rise, I ruff a club, cash the two spades throwing Ds, and lead the last trump from the board. If trumps are 4-1 that's no problem. I have two trump and the KQ of diamonds in my hand so they get 2 of the last four tricks, I get the other 2. So it is very likely that the contract comes in on the sole assumption that the club K is on my left.
What do I need if I rise with the A? Quite a bit, starting with the club K being on my right. If the club K is on my left even a 2-2 diamond split will not save me assuming Rho has either the diamond A or the spade A. And if Ds are 3-1 then I need the stiff to be the J otherwise, if someone holds AJx, I am going down regardless of where the club K is.
So: If I play low I need the club K on my left, and that's all I need. If I rise with the A I need quite a bit. If I regard it as highly unlikely that Lho would underlead a K then yep, I should probably hop up with the A. But if the location is of the K is anything even remotely like an even bet then playing low must be the way to go.
There is a little bit of mind reading. If Lho had the stiff D J might he have led it? Well, if he held the stiff D J and four clubs to the J then yes, he probably leads the D J. Of course Rho might hold the stiff D J and the club K. Then yes, better go up with the club A at T1 and draw trump.
Anyway, I play low at T1. I am sure of that. I think it is the best choice, of course I could be wrong, but I am absolutely sure that I do it. I don't see it as a close call.
#10
Posted 2021-August-03, 09:01
#11
Posted 2021-August-03, 09:18
Winstonm, on 2021-August-03, 09:01, said:
The bridge gods are smiling at me, for the moment at least. They are fickle gods.
Do you have the full hand handy?
The other day the following came up: 1D-1S-1NT-3H. I am holding a 2=3=4=4 12 count. Ah yes. Is 3H forcing? I think not but I think my partner thinks that it is. Does partner have five hearts? I think he should but I am not sure. I bid 3NT. Pard tables a 5=4=3=1 12 count. The bridge gods smiled, the opponents were helpful and it came in. As Julie Andrews sings, Somewhere in my youth or childhood, I must have done something good.
#12
Posted 2021-August-03, 11:40
kenberg, on 2021-August-03, 09:18, said:
Do you have the full hand handy?
#13
Posted 2021-August-03, 11:58
#14
Posted 2021-August-03, 14:45
#15
Posted 2021-August-03, 16:45
AL78, on 2021-August-03, 14:45, said:
I did this from memory so he probably held J9xx of Trump
#17
Posted 2021-August-04, 08:40
I take your point to be: What are we to make of a club lead on this auction. I agree. It's not just a matter of "Well, if it is 4th best then a random deal makes it 50-50 as to where the K is".
The ACBL Bulletin has a series on mathematics in bridge. I'm a (retired) mathematician and I think people overestimate the role of math. Very often as hear, the math has to be combined with, and perhaps take second place to, questions like "Huh. Why did he do that?" Math is not useless, not at all, but it requires care in applying it.
Anyway, my thinking, just looking at the NS hands, was that a club lead from the k was a reasonable possibility. That, combined with all the things that could go wrong if I hop up with the A, led me to play low. Bridge is interesting for many reasons, one of them being that it is simply impossible to confidently judge the chances that the K is on the left. This time it was.
#18
Posted 2021-August-04, 09:22
kenberg, on 2021-August-04, 08:40, said:
I take your point to be: What are we to make of a club lead on this auction. I agree. It's not just a matter of "Well, if it is 4th best then a random deal makes it 50-50 as to where the K is".
The ACBL Bulletin has a series on mathematics in bridge. I'm a (retired) mathematician and I think people overestimate the role of math. Very often as hear, the math has to be combined with, and perhaps take second place to, questions like "Huh. Why did he do that?" Math is not useless, not at all, but it requires care in applying it.
Anyway, my thinking, just looking at the NS hands, was that a club lead from the k was a reasonable possibility. That, combined with all the things that could go wrong if I hop up with the A, led me to play low. Bridge is interesting for many reasons, one of them being that it is simply impossible to confidently judge the chances that the K is on the left. This time it was.
Although the immediate thought is to play low and ensure two club tricks, I find it interesting that it is not so clear cut and there is an argument for playing the ace.