[pescetom]

MP

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Lead ♥4, probably 4th.

"Thank you, partner". Gulp.

What is your plan to make 13 tricks and how do you rate your chances?

[smerriman]

Is there a decision to be made? We need the club king with East, so finesse, cash the Ace and red suits, and then the three top spades; we never need to consider a spade finesse since East has to guard the clubs.

So we make if East has the club King, either singleton or doubleton; or longer with either the Jack of spades or 4 or more low spades. Dealer puts that around 34.5%.

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2024-May-06, 13:45, said:

Is there a decision to be made? We need the club king with East, so finesse, cash the Ace and red suits, and then the three top spades; we never need to consider a spade finesse since East has to guard the clubs.

So we make if East has the club King, either singleton or doubleton; or longer with either the Jack of spades or 4 or more low spades. Dealer puts that around 34.5%.

Or as I saw it, we need East with the club K with and West not having spades J 4+. My guesstimate was 31% but that's partly lazy math and partly pessimism because I never have much luck in finding stiff Kings

[pescetom]

Here is the actual hand:

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[Winstonm]

Win in hand, cross in diamonds, club finesse, cash club ace, run the diamonds, cash the hearts ending in dummy.

[pescetom]

 Winstonm, on 2024-May-06, 16:45, said:

Win in hand, cross in diamonds, club finesse, cash club ace, run the diamonds, cash the hearts ending in dummy.

Yes, although it took some thought at the table.

What puzzled me and made me think it might be worth posting is that all but one of those (rightly) in 6NT failed to take the overtrick. I would have thought that they might stumble on this line after clubs J held, or take the unnecessary but successful finesse against spades J in East.
Maybe there's some "obvious" but unsuccessful line that I miss.