[Cyberyeti]

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Partner shows 15-16 balanced probably 3343, do you:

invite 6N
bid 6N
settle for 3N (or 4N if you conclusively prove partner is 3343)

[shyams]

Who is designated declarer? South, North, or no NT bids so far?

[mw64ahw]

Worth an invite with KQJ6♠ - check for Aces

[mikeh]

I’d be disappointed in our methods if I didn’t know which suit or suits have 4 cards.

Without the auction, my options are sort of meaningless. But if, in response to 4N, he’ll bid 4 card suits up the line (I’m inferring that we’re in a notrump scenario of some kind and it’s expert standard to bid up the line if not passing a quantitative 4N in most sequences), I’ll definitely bid 4N, missing slam opposite 15 (probably for the best) and driving to slam otherwise, hoping for 6C or, unless he’s already denied spades, 6S but settling for 6N otherwise.

This hand is pretty good. It’s definitely worth more than 16 hcp. That spade Jack may be huge and those spot cards often add another fractional trick in terms of valuation.

In fact, I’m slightly more worried that 4N will miss a decent, though usually not cold, slam than that we’ll get too high if he moves over 4N. If I were allowed only to choose between slam and no slam, I’d pick slam. But 4N gets the nod because on a lot of 3=3=3=4 hands, 6C is safer.

Picture Axx AKx xxx KJxx. Yes, maybe he passes 4N although he shouldn’t….6 controls makes this a slam acceptance….but you can see that 6C is a claimed on 3=2 clubs while in 6N, you have no semblance of a 12th trick.

[pescetom]

How probable is probable? Does it exclude 5m332?
If not, then I would invite.

[Cyberyeti]

 shyams, on 2024-May-25, 07:12, said:

Who is designated declarer? South, North, or no NT bids so far?

Partner, auction goes 1♦-1♠-1N-2♣(asking)-2♠ (exactly 3 ♠, not 4♥, 15-16)-3♣-3N

if partner has an even vaguely sensible 5 card diamond suit, he will bid it over 3♣

You could continue with 4♦ over 3N and partner will bid 4N to confirm 3343

[shyams]

I generated a set of 16 boards on playbridge (http://playbridge.co...n_pick1set1.php).

Then I reviewed the hands visually (i.e. did not run them through an automated analyser).

In my set, 6NT was making (double dummy) 7 times but, without knowledge of opponent cards, I would likely have made 12 tricks 5 times out of 16.

My sample may be non-representative etc. but my takeaway was that bidding the slam was not profitable.

[johnu]

All the 10's and 9's in combination with higher honors, the KQJx sequence all make this look like a big upgrade hand. K&R evaluates to 18 points. My first thought was why invite, just bid 6NT if not missing 2 aces. The only thing better would be if playing CONFI where you could find out if you were missing 3 controls (A = 2, K = 1), where 6 will probably be on a finesse.

I ran a simulation where North was declarer (correct?) and was 3=3=4=3. With 15 HCP, 6NT made 68% double dummy so inviting isn't necessary.

[Cyberyeti]

 johnu, on 2024-May-25, 16:32, said:

All the 10's and 9's in combination with higher honors, the KQJx sequence all make this look like a big upgrade hand. K&R evaluates to 18 points. My first thought was why invite, just bid 6NT if not missing 2 aces. The only thing better would be if playing CONFI where you could find out if you were missing 3 controls (A = 2, K = 1), where 6 will probably be on a finesse.

I ran a simulation where North was declarer (correct?) and was 3=3=4=3. With 15 HCP, 6NT made 68% double dummy so inviting isn't necessary.

How many of those had K8xx or KJxx or Qxxx of diamonds with a 2 way position ? or ♣ K without the J ?

[johnu]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-May-26, 03:30, said:

How many of those had K8xx or KJxx or Qxxx of diamonds with a 2 way position ? or ♣ K without the J ?

A fair number. There's also a bunch of hands missing ♥AK that go down on a heart lead which may not happen if the honors are split. And a very small number missing 2 aces since I didn't specify specific honors, or more that may make on a heart lead which gives declarer an extra/no risk trick, or a "neutral" club or diamond lead that solves a guess. Double dummy gives, and takes away....