[Cyberyeti]

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Do you fancy doubling the weak NT on your 16 with the points in the short suits, or do you prefer showing hearts and another ? (Matchpoints)

[DavidKok]

I prefer double. Our hand is very defensive.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 03:15, said:

I prefer double. Our hand is very defensive.

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

You're joking, right? K&R isn't magic, it is just another algorithm.

[bluenikki]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 02:17, said:

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Do you fancy doubling the weak NT on your 16 with the points in the short suits, or do you prefer showing hearts and another ? (Matchpoints)

Edgar Kaplan wrote about his long experience with weak notrump. Opponents did very well when they overcalled with good shape. They did very poorly when they overcalled with poor shape.

[bluenikki]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

Kaplan's CCCC hates uh devalues two-honors-doubleton. That was his personal judgment.

[shyams]

I would double

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 07:53, said:

You're joking, right? K&R isn't magic, it is just another algorithm.

Yes but it's often a decent tool to sense check what you feel at the table in these cases, I certainly wouldn't double with ♣J432, I felt at the table it was a bad 15 but just enough to double with the 5 card suit to lead.

[P_Marlowe]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

If you think the hand is not strong enough, than pass may be an option.
Given that the club suit is pretty weak, I understand, that you dont want to sell the hand as two-suited.

[mw64ahw]

7.5 modified losers is weak for a 16 count, but partner's values could enhance the hand. I could show 5♥4♣, but partner doesn't need much for 1NT doubled to be profitable. Try it and see if they run.

[Cyberyeti]

P_Marlowe, on 2024-July-20, 11:20, said:

If you think the hand is not strong enough, than pass may be an option.
Given that the club suit is pretty weak, I understand, that you dont want to sell the hand as two-suited.

Pass gets you a complete bottom, I didn't expect what happened next, I doubled, opps wriggled out into one of their 3 7 card fits, partner doubled 2♠ and led a diamond.

I saw Jxx, Ax, KJxx, Kxxx, won the ♦Q, cashed the ♠KQ and led a heart, partner produced the Q and the roof fell in, partner had ♣A and ♠A10 so 1700 to the good guys.

People made 3N+? and 4♥ so defending undoubled is not an option.

[DavidKok]

If you think the hand is too weak for a double, you should probably pass.
If you think the hand is strong enough for a double, you should double.
I don't like 2♥ with such a defensive hand.
I don't see why you want your evaluation to be tied to K&R, and I think it is better to not rely on it. In fact, of all the hand evaluation metrics, I personally consider K&R one of the worst ones.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2024-July-20, 14:55, said:

If you think the hand is too weak for a double, you should probably pass.
If you think the hand is strong enough for a double, you should double.
I don't like 2♥ with such a defensive hand.
I don't see why you want your evaluation to be tied to K&R, and I think it is better to not rely on it. In fact, of all the hand evaluation metrics, I personally consider K&R one of the worst ones.

I would have bid 2♣ hearts and another if I hadn't doubled.

I don't use K&R until I have formed my own view of a hand, just use it as a kind of sense check, and I downvalued it, just not as much as K&R did. We tend to double on 15 if we have something to lead, and on that basis I doubled, evaluating the hand as 15.

[DavidKok]

I think we are having entirely different conversations.

In my opinion, this hand is too defensively oriented to bid. If you do not double, I think you should pass. The fact that you are using an artificial gadget to show hearts and another makes it slightly less attractice still to bid, since the opponents will have more room to determine what to do.

I still get the impression that you think K&R is 'correct', or 'more correct than your own judgement'. Personally I think this is a poor idea, in this situation especially. You should be looking at the defensive potential of your hand, not a strength measure. Also you are sitting over a lot of known values, which increases the value of your tenaces.

If you are happy with your decisions and are able to tell what is the best call down to what happens when you change your club spots I don't think I can contribute beyond that.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2024-July-21, 01:55, said:

I think we are having entirely different conversations.

In my opinion, this hand is too defensively oriented to bid. If you do not double, I think you should pass. The fact that you are using an artificial gadget to show hearts and another makes it slightly less attractice still to bid, since the opponents will have more room to determine what to do.

I still get the impression that you think K&R is 'correct', or 'more correct than your own judgement'. Personally I think this is a poor idea, in this situation especially. You should be looking at the defensive potential of your hand, not a strength measure. Also you are sitting over a lot of known values, which increases the value of your tenaces.

If you are happy with your decisions and are able to tell what is the best call down to what happens when you change your club spots I don't think I can contribute beyond that.

a) artificial gadget makes it MORE attractive to bid as we will reach 3♣ opposite short hearts and 4+ clubs, if the option was natural 2♥ or pass, I wouldn't consider 2♥, would be double or pass.
b) on average we have more points than the opps, defending 1N if the points are 21:19 in our favour is likely to lead to +100 instead of 110 at MPs.

I don't think K&R is "correct" but I use it as a tool, after I have decided what to do, then consider who's right.

I said what call I would make with the changed club spots, I viewed the hand as 15 with them, less than 15 without them.

[mikeh]

In my methods this is a wrp? type of question. Double is, in any method I’ve played v weak notrump, crystal clear.

The alternatives?

2H or your different conventional call, to show hearts and a minor? 11 of your 16 hcp are in the short suits and the internal texture of the long suits is hardly encouraging. Doubling doesn’t preclude the chances of reaching hearts, depending on methods.meanwhile, and related,y,partner will assume a significantly stronger offence/defence hand should the opponents be in trouble, as if definitely possible (and apparently was irl)

Pass: sure, it could be the winning all but would anyone really think that it was the most likely route to a good score?

Other than that sort of add-on comment, I strongly agree with DK.

[johnu]

mikeh, on 2024-July-21, 06:58, said:

Test

Have you tried other browsers? I use Chrome and haven't been having problems posting.

[P_Marlowe]

johnu, on 2024-July-21, 19:44, said:

Have you tried other browsers? I use Chrome and haven't been having problems posting.

I use Edge, I encounter sometimes problems, but very rarely, Edge and Chrome share the
same / a similar platform.

[P_Marlowe]

mikeh, on 2024-July-21, 06:58, said:

<snip>
Pass: sure, it could be the winning all but would anyone really think that it was the most likely route to a good score?
<snip>

It is MP, and all are red, the question is, if going plus (+100) is enough, and if p has something +200 should be ok
most of the time. Depending on their methods, they may find a good partial.

You can sell me anything, but I dont think Pass is such a huge gamble.

[helene_t]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-July-20, 05:56, said:

I did double, but K&R says it's a 14 count so not good enough, I certainly thought it wasn't 16 but wasn't sure how bad it was

That's sorta the point, isn't it? K&R measures offensive strength, defensive strength is more relevant for the decision to double.