[mike777]

☹️

[smerriman]

Hmm, this is very complex.

If South has what I thought with 6-5 in the majors, then starting with either ace dooms you unless you specifically find a stiff honor, so the choice looks to be between the queen of clubs and a low diamond.

If you start with the queen of clubs, then mike's continuation of dropping the ♥K under the Ace still seems best (and not as impossible to find as I first thought; after all, it's not really much different from ducking with Axx vs xx). That's despite pescetom saying you still had a chance and dropping the ♥K doomed you, due to South having the ♦K. North is heavily favored to hold it so finessing both minors has to be a better percentage line.

In retrospect a low diamond then looks better, since you get to find out if South has a stiff K straight away.. but actually, if South has 6-5-K-x, you're down on a low diamond if North finds the clever defense of ducking South's heart continuation, so it doesn't gain anything there.

On the other hand, if South has 6-4-Kx-x, then any club at trick 2 dooms you.. and a low diamond is still fine if South has 6-5-x-x.. but then aren't you in trouble if South has a stiff club honor, surely more likely than a stiff ♦K?

I don't know - I'm sticking with the club play and going down here, since I don't think 6-4 is very likely on the bidding anyway.

[thepossum]

I am reading the later posts and happy to have bailed out earlier - at least I had a few half reasonable plans for trick two

[pescetom]

 thepossum, on 2024-November-11, 03:00, said:

I am reading the later posts and happy to have bailed out earlier - at least I had a few half reasonable plans for trick two

FWIW I suspect you were actually right first time, my gut feeling as said is that the best plan would be a small diamond to the J, even if it fails to work on this layout.

I did hope some experts would have given their opinion, they have much more insight into how the opponents hands are likely to be shaped and where the missing honours are likely to be. I do feel I did a bad job of that even for my own level, failing to think through the possible diamonds/hearts honour locations and their implications, with a particularly low vote to continuing clubs after having seen both play low to the Ace.

[pescetom]

Here is the actual layout.

MP

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