More Hand Evaluation

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More Hand Evaluation

#1 ArtK78

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Posted 2012-February-01, 12:41

12 board match. IMPs converted to VPs.

2♦ - Game forcing artificial (2♥ would be negative).
2♥ - Kokish. Either natural or strong balanced.
2♠ - Forced unless responder has long suit.
3♦ - Natural - hearts & diamonds.
3♥ - Fit, better than 4♥.

Note that North's original pass denied a hand as good as 10 HCP.

Would you take another bid with the North hand?

#2 quiddity

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:03

umm.. yes?

#3 wyman

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:10

I do.

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#4 TWO4BRIDGE

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:21

6♥.

Opener has lots of stuff in his 5+♥ and 4+♦ suit ... with shortness in either or both blacks.

And you have the 2 black bullets to go along with the double-fit.

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#5 JLOGIC

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:23

This reminds me of a hand from the bermuda bowl where our teammates got to 6H off two aces and made it. Partners hand was like 5 solid 5 solid or soemthing, but our teammate bid 4D with that whereas bobby levin bid 4H. Going with that I will bid 7D lol

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#6 mikeh

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:40

JLOGIC, on 2012-February-01, 13:23, said:

Your team also got to 6♣ on a hand missing 2 Aces and an inescapable heart loser....however, dummy held KQ tight in spades with declarer being 0=7=1=5, and we led the spade A....opening leader held only that Ace.

void AJxxxxx x AKxxx opposite KQ xx KQJxx QJxx if I recall.....1♥ (1♠)...our teammate bid 2♦ and couldn't find the club slam (?) after 4th chair bounced.....your teammate doubled and opener took a reasonable shot at 6♣ after the same bounce. I still think I, as fourth chair, ought to have bid diamonds at some stage with my Jxxxx Kx Axxxx x. Oh well.

It goes to show that sometimes keycard just gets in the way

Oh..and I'm not claiming we would have beaten you if we'd beaten the slam.....we were blitzed as I recall

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#7 MrAce

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Posted 2012-February-01, 13:47

Seems to me the hand types that slam is not good and 5 maybe in danger are the ones similar to

KQ
AKxxx
AQxx
KJ

KQ
AKQJx
QJxx
KQ

He could perhaps bid 3NT over 3♥ if that is not a convention, or he could have bid 2NT over 2♦ with those ? Probably.

Regardless tho, if we are going to make a move now (which i think we should) and that our goal was not to settle in game, then why didnt we support ♦ previous round ?

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#8 HighLow21

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Posted 2012-February-01, 15:55

I can't imagine the odds against 6♥ are worse than 30%, even without having an Ace or keycard count yet. The 2♣ bid should show at most 4 losers, and North's hand fills 2 of them. The diamond length makes it probable that a 3rd hole is filled. The outside aces are always worth a trick. The risk of losing a black suit trick is near zero. So the primary risk is losing two red suit tricks.

One thing I always find helpful is to imagine a minimum hand for which 6♥ is essentially cold. If you can, then slam is probably a good bet.

Here's one: ♠Kx ♥AKQJ5 ♦AQJ95 ♣x.

This makes 6♥ unless RHO has a diamond void, or hearts are 5-0. This is about a 9% fail rate.

And partner could be stronger.

Sure, there are plenty of hands where 6♥ or even 5♥ could fail, but the reward seems higher than the risk here. Bid 4NT (or whatever ace-asking convention you're using) and go to 6 unless you're off two aces (or two keycards). If you do so and go -1 in 5♥, chalk it up as extremely unlucky and expect to have plenty of company.

There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!

#9 ArtK78

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Posted 2012-February-01, 15:58

I chose to pass 4♥, and we missed a good (but by no means cold) slam:

Partner, having overbid his hand significantly, was annoyed that we could not get to this slam after he opened 2♣. In his opinion, he could have had the ♥Q instead of the ♥2. I can't really argue the point.

Perhaps I should raise diamonds. 7♦ is cold on most (but not all) hands on which 6♥ makes, and 6♦ makes on a non-spade lead when there is a heart loser but diamonds are 3-2.

#10 rogerclee

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Posted 2012-February-01, 16:26

I'd rather bid 7D than pass.

#11 HighLow21

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Posted 2012-February-01, 20:31

I don't think your partner overbid at all. The hand has 4 quick tricks and 3.5-4 losers. To me those are the minimum requirements (>=4 QT's and <=4 losers) for opening 2♣ with the intention of rebidding a suit. (You can have more losers if you plan to rebid in NT. For example, ♠AKQJ ♥KJT9 ♦Q98 ♣AKT has ~5 losers but enough HCP for 2♣.)

There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!

#12 Zelandakh

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Posted 2012-February-02, 05:52

HighLow21, on 2012-February-01, 20:31, said:

For example, ♠AKQJ ♥KJT9 ♦Q98 ♣AKT has ~5 losers but enough HCP for 2♣.)

Since when has a balanced 23 count not been enough for a 2♣ opener?

(-: Zel :-)

#13 Fluffy

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Posted 2012-February-02, 06:52

I think Timo has it right, if we are going to move over 4♥ then we should had bid 4♦ earlier.

The best and only way to bid it now is to blast 6♦ and let partner pick.

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#14 rhm

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Posted 2012-February-02, 06:53

MrAce, on 2012-February-01, 13:47, said:

I can not imagine bidding 4♥ with those hands over 3♥. Playing 3NT conventional when partner has only given preference to hearts can not be right.
But if you do for some silly reasons, you would have to rebid 2NT with those hands.
I can not see passing 4♥ with responders hand, but neither do I understand 6♥.
Bidding 6♦ after you gave preference to hearts already must be better at all forms of scoring. Opener will correct when 6♥ is superior.
If opener passes 6♦ I can not imagine 6♥ to be a better contract. Opener could well be 5-5 in the red suits.

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#15 HighLow21

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Posted 2012-February-02, 12:41

Zelandakh, on 2012-February-02, 05:52, said:

Since when has a balanced 23 count not been enough for a 2♣ opener?

Zekandakh, I said in my post above that it is indeed enough to open 2♣. I was pointing it out as an example of a balanced 2♣ opener that has more losers that the QT/loser count parameters I'd specified earlier in the post for semi-balanced or unbalanced hands.

There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!

#16 Phil

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Posted 2012-February-02, 12:49

HighLow21, on 2012-February-01, 20:31, said:

For example, ♠AKQJ ♥KJT9 ♦Q98 ♣AKT has ~5 losers but enough HCP for 2♣.)

This is the 2nd time you've spewed out a hand in the A/E that had an incorrect number of cards.

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#17 HighLow21

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Posted 2012-February-02, 13:10

Phil, on 2012-February-02, 12:49, said:

This is the 2nd time you've spewed out a hand in the A/E that had an incorrect number of cards.

OK fair point; remove a red 9. What was the first?

There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!

#18 Phil

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Posted 2012-February-02, 13:30

HighLow21, on 2012-February-02, 13:10, said:

OK fair point; remove a red 9. What was the first?

Quote

That said, all partner needs for slam to be cold is Ax KQx AJxxx KJ. This isn't much above a minimum and has 5 wasted points.

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#19 HighLow21

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Posted 2012-February-02, 13:57

Phil, on 2012-February-02, 13:30, said:

Sometimes in my frenetic attempt to get my point across I forget to count my x's. Noted.

There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!

#20 Zelandakh

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Posted 2012-February-03, 02:33

My apologies for that HighLow, I misread your earlier post. This is unfortunately all too easy to do when scanning through threads. Similarly for making typos in posting hands - I would not worry about this too much unless it becomes something of a habit.

(-: Zel :-)

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More Hand Evaluation

#1 ArtK78

#2 quiddity

#3 wyman

#4 TWO4BRIDGE

#5 JLOGIC

#6 mikeh

#7 MrAce

#8 HighLow21

#9 ArtK78

#10 rogerclee

#11 HighLow21

#12 Zelandakh

#13 Fluffy

#14 rhm

#15 HighLow21

#16 Phil

#17 HighLow21

#18 Phil

#19 HighLow21

#20 Zelandakh

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