[655321]

Jlall, on Feb 6 2008, 07:14 PM, said:

You still make game with lots of hands that pass 3S as south, and lots of hands that would bid 3S as south when you're north. I wouldn't have even thought of either of these hands to be that close tbh, before I read this post so I don't think it's like "if south is so agressive north doesn't need to be."

Also I think people rarely think about the difference in moving for game once you're in 3S as opposed to when you're in 2S. You have a lot of equity bidding game as a hand like north because you're often already down in 3 opposite the "wrong" hand, so bidding on costs 2 imps. North is the type of hand that makes a lot opposite the perfecta and not much opposite the wrong hand. Of course, you could get doubled opposite the really wrong hand and that should be factored in.

I remember some hand that Hamman ran some analysis on that showed if you will make game 25 % of the time you should bid it, because you were down in 3 already so much when you couldn't make game. People already know this on moving over 2N to 3N hand types that contain a long suit, I think they should be more aware of it for situations over 3M as well.

I find this to be interesting.

My thinking has never been deeper than the 7 point rule, which is why I raise with North, and only bid 3 as South.

If the South hand is not close, what is close? Would J98xx J9 xxx KT9 still bid 4♠?
What if you held a similar hand with a four card spade suit only - how much stronger would you need to be to bid 4♠?

[mikeh]

Jlall, on Feb 6 2008, 07:14 PM, said:

Also I think people rarely think about the difference in moving for game once you're in 3S as opposed to when you're in 2S. You have a lot of equity bidding game as a hand like north because you're often already down in 3 opposite the "wrong" hand, so bidding on costs 2 imps. North is the type of hand that makes a lot opposite the perfecta and not much opposite the wrong hand. Of course, you could get doubled opposite the really wrong hand and that should be factored in.

I was and remain a 4♠ bidder with the North hand, and I agree that there are hands on which your 'equity' in the below-game contract is such that you may as well bid on.. but I think you significantly underestimate the risks.

It takes a trigger-happy opp to double 3♠ on this auction, or similar auctions, especially if he's only beating it 1 for 200, as opposed to 100 undoubled. He risks 12 imps to gain 3. But when you raise to game, you greatly increase the attractiveness of double, such that you may be trading your -100 into -500, for a loss of 9 imps: the double risks only 5 imps to gain 9.

Still, as doubler, it pays to assume that partner has 5-8 hcp for his bid, and this is enough for me to raise as North... but a penalty double would neither startle nor unduly concern me.. I'd assume the board was likely a push if we went down

This auction is quite different from the expert trend of raising invitational 2N bids to 3N on high card minimums with a long suit, because the opps have so little information about each other's hands and because neither partner was under pressure, so each partner will have values... unlike the 3♠ responder to the takeout doubler, who may be dying a death on some hand like xxxx xxx xxx xxx

[ArtK78]

Some interesting points have been raised by those advocating a 4♠ bid by the North hand. At least Justin recognizes that by bidding 4♠ you are not just risking 2 IMPs - if you are really wrong you could be risking 10 IMPs.

Every so often you will hit partner with a blizzard like xxxx xxx xxx xxx (admittedly an extreme case). You might avoid the double at 3♠ - after all, you did find an 8 card fit. But the four level may be too much to avoid the double.

I suspect that the gains obtained by bidding on to a making game over 3♠ are balanced out, or nearly balanced out, by those times when you will get doubled at the four level but not at the three level (in cases where 3 is going down). The double by the North hand is well within normal parameters. South should be able to bid game most of the time when it has good play.

[benlessard]

As south i could go either way but i would never bid 4S with north hand.