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dake50, on Sep 20 2009, 01:56 PM, said:
I have been charting tricks won vs hcp and find 22 succeeds 1/3 as 21 and 1/2 as 23. Finding no reason to explain this, are others finding this anomaly? Is 22 just a confluence of overrated Q/J for example? Is 22 "heavy" in quacks?
Mbodell, on Sep 23 2009, 12:49 PM, said:
My revised calculations give for 21,22,23 HCP:
21: 2.695 A 2.073 K 1.488 Q 1.023 J
22: 2.846 A 2.167 K 1.549 Q 1.014 J
23: 2.985 A 2.290 K 1.597 Q 0.998 J
So again the expected number of Jacks is actually going down slightly, and the number of AKQ are all going up. And A's are even more common than what I wrote before (which makes sense because they give the most points per card leaving the most spaces for 2-T fillers). But it doesn't look like 22 is special in any way.
21: 2.695 A 2.073 K 1.488 Q 1.023 J
22: 2.846 A 2.167 K 1.549 Q 1.014 J
23: 2.985 A 2.290 K 1.597 Q 0.998 J
So again the expected number of Jacks is actually going down slightly, and the number of AKQ are all going up. And A's are even more common than what I wrote before (which makes sense because they give the most points per card leaving the most spaces for 2-T fillers). But it doesn't look like 22 is special in any way.
- How many deals were in your study?
- Is "HCP" just for one hand or is it the combined partnership HCP?
- What does "succeeds" mean? Presumably, you are counting tricks won - rather than contracts made?
- Did you sample deals from actual play (eg from BBO)? If so, did you examine actual table-results?
- Or did you generate random deals yourself? and assess results with a double-dummy analyzer?