[Jlall]

r/r MP:

AKxxx x KQJxx xx

RHO opens 1H, you bid 2H, LHO bids 2S, partner bids 4S, and RHO bids tank 5H. You?

Can't even decide if this is close or not but I know the whole hand so I think I'm biased.

[aguahombre]

I have a different problem. Was 2H a random "continuous range" bid, or did you consider it a "too strong" call in a broken-range Michaels context? Since I would have called it an in-betweener, different things might have happened by now to help me decide what to do after I had overcalled 1S.

[jjbrr]

Pass and hope they make 680 or 710. If LHO bids over the hesitation, I'll try 6♠

[jdonn]

Given the 2♠ bid partner must have made his call on a somewhat weak hand. Also I don't think they would bid 5 here anticipating me to save at 5 so they probably are expecting to make. So I think they are probably making and we look like we are down 2 at most, including an outside shot of making, so I'll take the save in 5♠.

[gnasher]

This isn't a great advert for non-specific two-suited overcalls.

I pass, because I don't have more shape than I promised, I have quite good defence in context, and if partner wanted to involve me he would have done so.

[Winstonm]

Mission accomplished - pass.

[MFA]

Pass, I expect partner to be quick to shoot 4♠. Don't see why we shouldn't have a decent chance at defense, we might even cash 2 spades sometimes.

[nigel_k]

Pass. I think partner will be better placed to decide than I am.

[Jlall]

Partner had QJ9x xx xxx Jxxx. How good/bad/crazy is his 4S bid? Would you want to bid 5S if you knew his hand?

[jdonn]

Jlall, on Oct 12 2009, 06:52 PM, said:

Partner had QJ9x xx xxx Jxxx. How good/bad/crazy is his 4S bid? Would you want to bid 5S if you knew his hand?

His bid is absolutely crazy IMO.

Tough call whether you want to bid 5♠ knowing his hand at mps, though clearly not at imps since the gain when right is so much smaller. Of course if any of his other cards were a spade, which looks much more like a 4♠ call, then I would very much want to bid 5♠.

Frankly neither the hand nor the disagreement from others has convinced me I'm wrong in this case. It's mps and I am extremely likely to be going down 500 or less, so I would have to be setting them quite a lot of the time for saving to be wrong. With AK of spades opposite a 4♠ bid known to be weak and 0 to 1 other tricks, I don't see why I would expect to set them often enough for passing to be right.

[pooltuna]

jdonn, on Oct 12 2009, 05:06 PM, said:

Given the 2♠ bid partner must have made his call on a somewhat weak hand. Also I don't think they would bid 5 here anticipating me to save at 5 so they probably are expecting to make. So I think they are probably making and we look like we are down 2 at most, including an outside shot of making, so I'll take the save in 5♠.

this gets my vote

[dake50]

Might I step into a forcing pass invite to slam with 0-1xS and good controls that gets accepted and 6H makes? Naw, 5S-x is surely cheap --just not as cheap as 4S-x.

[gnasher]

I think 4♠ is a fine bid. Opponents are very likely to be making 4♥, and 4♠ is likely to cost only 500. There's a good chance that opponents will misjudge, by getting too high or not high enough.

Looking at our two hands together, we don't know whether that's happened or not. They could be going down in 5♥ or they could be cold for a slam. That's a good reason for not wanting to bid 5♠.

me said:

This isn't a great advert for non-specific two-suited overcalls.

I suppose I'd better take this back - the uncertainty has probably worked in our favour.

[nige1]

Jlall, on Oct 12 2009, 04:53 PM, said:

r/r MP: AKxxx x KQJxx xx
RHO opens 1H, you bid 2H, LHO bids 2S, partner bids 4S, and RHO bids tank 5H. You?
Can't even decide if this is close or not but I know the whole hand so I think I'm biased

IMO _X = 10, _P = 9, 5♠ = 5.
Double shows that your Michaels overcall is sound in high cards rather than extra shape, leaving partner to make an informed choice. Vulnerable, you are on the weak side for such an action, so pass is a close runner-up. 5♠ is unilateral and may undo the good work of partner's pre-empt.

[pooltuna]

jdonn, on Oct 12 2009, 05:06 PM, said:

Given the 2♠ bid partner must have made his call on a somewhat weak hand. Also I don't think they would bid 5 here anticipating me to save at 5 so they probably are expecting to make. So I think they are probably making and we look like we are down 2 at most, including an outside shot of making, so I'll take the save in 5♠.

I don't know if I am bidding 5♠ to make or save but I am bidding. Gee I wished I had just overcalled 1♠.

[jjbrr]

I don't think double is even remotely an option.

[Jlall]

I was the 4S bidder, no doubt those who know me will not be surprised heh. I think it's a huge winner against weak opps who will frequently misjudge. The weaker the opps the more often they bid 5H imo, and the less often you go for 800 vs a non slam (the biggest downside of bidding 4S with my hand by far I think). Also you are more likely to screw a pair at the club out of a slam more often than a good pair.

I would just bid 3S vs good opps though since I think 800 is a pretty plausible risk. At the time I bid 4S I thought one of the biggest risks is that partner will misjudge and bid 5S too often, but I guess this hand shows that thought was wrong. Partner is rarely gonna bid 5S over 5H in this auction.

I think if partner knew my hand he would have bid 5S. True the opps might be on for a slam, but even if that's the case it's not necessarily true that they won't bid it if you pass, but will bid it if you bid. I think even if they're on for a slam if you know you're going down 2 you should bid and make them get it right. The chance of them going down is super duper small, what are the odds they've bid 5H with a doubleton spade and a doubleton diamond? The chance that you go down 3 on diamond ruffs is definitely real though in 5S. So those are three scenarios where bidding 5S is wrong even knowing my hand, but the by far most likely scenario is the jdonn scenario (down 2 into their make) I think so it's worth it. But it's close.

My partner passed fwiw.

[andy_h]

I agree with jdonn, that opposite a 4♠ hand known to be weak I definitely like my chances going for 500 in 5♠ so I'd tend towards that. Admittedly RHO's tank may seem like he's 2-6 in the majors in which we may take 2 spades and a diamond (if partner had bid 4♠ with 4 of them and a singleton) but in other cases partner can have 5 spades too.

[skjaeran]

5♠ for me. This is going to be a good save most of the time.
Expect opps to make at least 5♥, hard to tell if bidding 5♠ will make it easier for them to judge or not.