[lamford]

Scoring: IMP

East South West North
1H Pass 1S Pass
2D Pass 3H Pass
4H All Pass

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What is your lead?

[jdonn]

Spade and not that close.

[mikeh]

spade and much closer (to a club) than I think Josh thinks, but Jxxxx is such a bad lead most times, that I'll go with the spade.

[jdonn]

If Jxxxx is a bad lead most times then why is it close?

[JLOGIC]

jdonn is always confident/happy to lead a queen of the opponents suit.

[cherdanno]

I would lead a club.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Sep 15 2010, 05:22 PM, said:

If Jxxxx is a bad lead most times then why is it close?

well....let me see.....I think we agree it should be a black suit. Clubs are the unbid suit. The bidding suggests rho has only 3 or 4 black cards and our spades are such that there is a real possibility that a spade lead will allow him to pitch a club as we ruff in with our natural trump winner.... it would be a shame to find:

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or a similar construction.

Please don't say that this is too-careful a construction: I did choose to lead a spade, after all....but I still think it's close.

[lamford]

mikeh, on Sep 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

The bidding suggests rho has only 3 or 4 black cards and our spades are such that there is a real possibility that a spade lead will allow him to pitch a club as we ruff in with our natural trump winner.

This was almost verbatim the assessment of the person who found the successful lead and showed me the hand. Now you need to take this analysis to the next level .... Nobody so far has really grasped the issue.

[jdonn]

I would find it quite unlucky if partner had the AQT of clubs and no spade above the 8, maybe it's just me. But if the suggestion is we should be worried that our spades are QJ, in other words that xx of spades would be a better lead here than QJ of spades, I do not agree!

[jdonn]

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:07 PM, said:

mikeh, on Sep 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

The bidding suggests rho has only 3 or 4 black cards and our spades are such that there is a real possibility that a spade lead will allow him to pitch a club as we ruff in with our natural trump winner.

This was almost verbatim the assessment of the person who found the successful lead and showed me the hand. Now you need to take this analysis to the next level .... Nobody so far has really grasped the issue.

Leading the ace of diamonds to see dummy and pick a black suit could work very badly, but it's an interesting idea.

[rogerclee]

jdonn, on Sep 15 2010, 04:12 PM, said:

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:07 PM, said:

mikeh, on Sep 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

The bidding suggests rho has only 3 or 4 black cards and our spades are such that there is a real possibility that a spade lead will allow him to pitch a club as we ruff in with our natural trump winner.

This was almost verbatim the assessment of the person who found the successful lead and showed me the hand. Now you need to take this analysis to the next level .... Nobody so far has really grasped the issue.

Leading the ace of diamonds to see dummy and pick a black suit could work very badly, but it's an interesting idea.

CJ obv

[lamford]

jdonn, on Sep 15 2010, 06:12 PM, said:

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:07 PM, said:

mikeh, on Sep 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

The bidding suggests rho has only 3 or 4 black cards and our spades are such that there is a real possibility that a spade lead will allow him to pitch a club as we ruff in with our natural trump winner.

This was almost verbatim the assessment of the person who found the successful lead and showed me the hand. Now you need to take this analysis to the next level .... Nobody so far has really grasped the issue.

Leading the ace of diamonds to see dummy and pick a black suit could work very badly, but it's an interesting idea.

You are getting warmer.

[jdonn]

Why do people try so hard to tilt me by presenting problems in this way? If it's a low diamond I object, likewise a trump. If it's the club jack I don't see the point other than to look really bad when partner has two honors doubleton or something but feel free to enlighten me.

[lamford]

I objected as well, but North was undeterred. To have a chance to beat this, he argued, I will probably need to find West with 2-5-4-2. If he is 3-5-4-1 he will have too good a spade fit with my honours badly placed, and if he is 1-5-4-3 then he may get club ruffs in dummy. East's most likely entry for later spades is a diamond. Leading a club may allow him to play spades and pitch a club. Leading a spade may just help setting up the spades. The low diamond is therefore a standout, according to North, who was the only player to find it in the entire room.

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I just blinked and vowed never to play rubber bridge against him.

[jdonn]

Lol why would dummy be short in clubs if declarer has 3, couldn't dummy have a stiff diamond like 5314? Or partner have Jxx and we solve a guess or JTx and we simply give away the suit? I will play rubber bridge against him!

[JLOGIC]

Yes I know when they have an invitational auction and I know their trumps are 4-1 with JT9x, I am automatically in desperation mode!!!!! Great logic.

So this actually happened, and south actually put in the queen?

Are lamford and dburn partners/friends?

[lamford]

I asked him that as well, and he said that if dummy has a stiff diamond then East will score diamond ruffs, say x AKQxx Kxxx Kxx opposite Axxxx xxx x AQxx, when there is clearly no defence, or your second point something like xx AKQxx Kxxx Qx opposite Axxxx xxx Qxx Ax when any lead (except a low heart) works, even the low diamond. And I do not know the defender that well; he showed me the hand over a beer in Croatia.

[655321]

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:25 PM, said:

North, who was the only player to find it in the entire room

I find that very easy to believe.

[jdonn]

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:44 PM, said:

I asked him that as well, and he said that if dummy has a stiff diamond then East will score diamond ruffs, say x AKQxx Kxxx Kxx opposite Axxxx xxx x AQxx, when there is clearly no defence, or your second point something like xx AKQxx Kxxx Qx opposite Axxxx xxx Qxx Ax when any lead (except a low heart) works, even the low diamond. And I do not know the defender that well; he showed me the hand over a beer in Croatia.

What if dummy has a stiff diamond and we had 4 TOP TRICKS! Like

Kxxxx Kxx x Axxx
xx AQxxx KQJx Kx

What if we blow a diamond trick but we had 4 TOP TRICKS! Like

Axxxx xxx Qxx Ax
xx AKQxx Kxxx Kx
(your second hand with the club queen changed to the king)
(yes he could always guess diamonds but give him a T and there might have been a guess for partner's jack, or he might just misguess diamonds anyway).

[JLOGIC]

655321, on Sep 15 2010, 06:44 PM, said:

lamford, on Sep 15 2010, 06:25 PM, said:

North, who was the only player to find it in the entire room

I find that very easy to believe.

Easier to believe than partner putting up the queen. I guess if this guy always underleads Ax of declarers suit...