[inquiry]

Scoring: MP

submitted by: inquiry

This was one where you had to get out of hearts and get into diamonds, from South.

Top spot, 6♦ S

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[awm]

I'm never really sure what the right way is to score these kinds of hands.

Let's ignore unlikely positions such as diamonds 5-0 and spades 7-1 which beat any slam. In this case 6♥ makes 50% of the time (spade ace onside). How does 6♦ do? Well it's not quite cold... for example hearts 4-0 or hearts 3-1 with the short hearts holding four diamonds both seem to cause issues. Let's say that 6♦ makes 90% of the time, which seems fairly generous. It seems that:

50% of the time, 6♥ makes and is the top spot
45% of the time, 6♦ makes and 6♥ fails, so 6♦ is the top spot
5% of the time, both slams fail and it's a push board (game contracts are top spot).

Assuming that the entire field will get to slam I'd rather be in 6♥! Of course, if you have a lot of people playing in game, then 6♦ is much better because you get a near-top when it makes (even if 6♥ also would make) by beating all the game bidders. Yet I'd expect that in a strong field most people will be in some slam or another.

At IMPs it's obvious that 6♦ is best, because you just want to be in the slam that makes most often and the extra IMP or two from 6♥ when both slams make is irrelevant. But at MP? I dunno, seems to depend on the field strength.

[jdonn]

Adam, we are the field. I thought we agreed last round to just take the exact ratios of pairs in the bbf field who bid game/slam and use those on a hand like this.

This hand was funny for gib and me. We started 2♣ 2♦ 2♥ and gib bid 3♦ natural! (best player ever) The problem is this is a known bug with gib since he plays 3♣ artificial here and doesn't know he can bid a natural 2NT. He makes this 3♦ bid frequently on a 3 card suit, and I'm not sure but maybe even a doubleton. Also if I raise to 4♦ he doesn't play his 4♥ bid as natural (I think? Anyway I wasn't confident he does) So raising diamonds now might not be a fit and would preclude me from ever playing in hearts. I might have guessed to do it anyway (4-4 fit in a minor in a bidding contest) but I just rebid hearts and played 4♥. I'm such a hand hog.

[JLOGIC]

6H should be slightly better than 4H since they might lead the SA imo.

[kayin801]

JLOGIC, on Sep 29 2010, 05:28 PM, said:

6H should be slightly better than 4H since they might lead the SA imo.

Or there could be a club miracle, just so long as it's played from the South.

I butchered a strong club auction here and landed in 4♥ thinking we were off 2 aces.

[inquiry]

I can agree that 6HS is better than 6DN, and all the pairs that found the diamond slam found it from north. 4H was given slighly less than 6 on the premise that someone would bid 6D as South. Oh well.

6HS hanp/jlall
6HS bid_em_up/TylerE
6HS bluecalm/redds
6HS ant590/cryzeejim
6HS peachy/Ig62
6HN Hrothgar/Free
6HN olegru/driver733
6HS awn/elianna
6HS Karlson/threenobob
4HS TimG/TgoodwinSr
4HS sohcahtoa/east4evil
4HS jdonn/gib
4HN gnasher/catch22
4HS MBodell/Javabean
6DN wackojack/flycycle
6DN cherdano/rogerclee


6DS = 11
6H = 6
6DN = 4
4H = 5