Posted 2011-January-31, 10:21
At trick 2 clearly the ♣10. There are big advantages to playing it from hand (LHO may have ♣K(x) or KQx+), so win trick 1 in hand. What card does RHO play?
If the ♣10 wins, ♠Q both to unblock and to test the clubs. If an honor falls there are at least 10 tricks. If not continuing clubs works if the ♦K is onside and the opponents can't establish 3 major suit tricks plus two clubs. Most RHOs would betray some indication if they duck the ♣10 from ♣Qxx or ♣KQxx. Lacking such indication East rates to have 9-10 black cards and hence can establish 5 black winners and/or the ♦K is wrong. So probably my next move would be a low ♦ to the J creating 8 sure tricks and with a couple of chances including an endplay for a 9th trick in ♦.
If the ♣10 is covered or if it loses, continue clubs and hope the opponents don't find a way to create 5 tricks.