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Hand Evaluation - NAP

#1 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 09:58

This was from our District NAP (North American Pairs) qualifier on Saturday:

AQ AJT Ax K9xxxx.

I'm going to make you open 1 instead of 2N which looks pretty reasonable too.

Partner bids 2N which in your methods is 11-12. Follow-ups are virtually undiscussed.
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#2 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 10:14

I'd bid 6, and I'll be a little sad if partner has 5 diamonds and we make 7C on 4-2 diamonds. 6C probably > 6N at IMPs, but at MP's, I'll be greedy.
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#3 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 10:38

How nice, if i were to go slam i would seriously consider a slam since 6 NT is probably wrongsided.

Pass is out of question
3 also since it will be passed out
3 is out of question, it is one of the suits pd is likely to hold and misguide us.
3M or 4 could be considerations but i dunno what we will achieve with this. Because even if we keycard after this it will be too late by the time we learn AQ is missing. And pd will almost always refuse slam invitations when we hold 4 keycards.
4 ? I wouldnt do it without discussion but if we both knew it was kickback or whatever named keycard asking that wld be nice.

4NT ? I dont think so, as i said all invitations will tend to be refused because pd is lack of almost all keycards if not all of them.

6 ? Not saying this shd be the bid but thats what i would go with. Definetely not 6NT. Without suit running i dont see how we make 6NT and i definetely want to play from my side. Even at MP this 6 will be a good score if we make it imo.
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#4 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 10:51

Maybe I am too wimpy but I just bid 3NT. We have a max of 30 HCP, a crummy suit, and no obvious source of pitches.

Sometimes at matchpoints taking the max number of tricks is worth almost as much as bidding them anyway.
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 10:57

to make slam we need partner fitting clubs, so 4 and pass 4NT if partner bids it.
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#6 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 11:05

View PostMrAce, on 2011-December-21, 10:38, said:

3M or 4 could be considerations but i dunno what we will achieve with this. Because even if we keycard after this it will be too late by the time we learn AQ is missing.

It wouldn't be too late if 4C itself were the keycard (for clubs) asking bid, I imagine. We do know pard has some clubs, and that we can stop in 4NT if need be.

This post has been edited by aguahombre: 2011-December-21, 11:09

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#7 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 11:39

I'll try 3nt.


Kxx..Kxx...KT9xx...Qx?
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#8 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 11:51

View Postmike777, on 2011-December-21, 11:39, said:

I'll try 3nt.


Kxx..Kxx...KT9xx...Qx?


Does that hand really need to try to play the NT?
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#9 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 11:59

View PostPhil, on 2011-December-21, 11:51, said:

Does that hand really need to try to play the NT?

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.
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#10 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:04

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-December-21, 11:59, said:

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.


Partner is a decent player, but he had a 'deer in the headlights' look much of the day. The field was really tough, and I think he got psyched out early. Therefore, he was doing everything in his power NOT to play the hands LOL.
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#11 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:15

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-December-21, 11:59, said:

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.


Similar question.

Does partner have any other way to bid clubs? Particularly if he might do that with four clubs.

Will 2NT normally deny four of a major? If so can I fairly safely start bidding new suits at the three level without partner thinking I have length there?
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#12 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:27

fwiw, when I blasted 6N, I assumed a style in which:
- partner denied a 4cM, and
- partner would have bid 1D with KQxxx or better.

I'm fully expecting 33(34) or (32)44 from partner.
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#13 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:40

View Postwyman, on 2011-December-21, 12:27, said:

fwiw, when I blasted 6N, I assumed a style in which:
- partner denied a 4cM, and
- partner would have bid 1D with KQxxx or better.

I'm fully expecting 33(34) or (32)44 from partner.


You assume correctly.
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#14 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:41

View PostPhil, on 2011-December-21, 12:40, said:

You assume correctly.


Now if only my hand evaluation were as good as my assumptive abilities!
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

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#15 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 12:45

View PostPhil, on 2011-December-21, 12:04, said:

Therefore, he was doing everything in his power NOT to play the hands LOL.

So, you would oblige him by keying for clubs and only resorting to NT if obvious from the result of your inquiry? Sounds good to me.
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#16 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2011-December-21, 13:45

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-December-21, 11:05, said:

It wouldn't be too late if 4C itself were the keycard (for clubs) asking bid, I imagine. We do know pard has some clubs, and that we can stop in 4NT if need be.



Of course, i was refering to 4NT. As i said if 4/ bids are some sort of keycarding, that would be nice. But with OP saying not much discussion on them, i thought bidding them and expecting pd to respond keycards at 4 level was out of question.

Unless of course it is very standart and/or obvious for everyone that i was not aware of.
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#17 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-December-22, 02:44

The canonical bid is 4C but that doesn't help us sort out the most important thing (how good pard's clubs are), so I might as well bid 6C now.

Even if pard's 4NT over 4C were a sort of "I'm not interested" bid showing e.g. Kxx KQx Kxxx xxx, it wouldn't help much, as he would definitely accept the invite with the aforementioned Kxx Kxx KT9xx Qx due to the fitting club queen.

We clearly don't have the methods here, so it's a bit of a shot. 6C seems to be the percentage bid (6NT rates hopeless unless clubs run anyway).
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#18 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-December-22, 10:38

Five days after the event, I still think this is an interesting hand.

4N is a strange call opposite a 11-12 HCP hand. Generally this would require 20-21, but this is out as a balanced hand. Unbalanced hands can reverse over 2N, and hands that strictly have clubs can bid 4, which probably makes the most sense as RKC here. I guarantee you this partner would interpret 4 as Gerber.

So IMO, since 4N cannot be any of the above, it should focus on one aspect of responder's hand - and thats clubs. A lot of 11 counts with four clubs make slam excellent, but 11 counts with 3 clubs (and presumably 3343) make it less attractive. Picture Kxx Qxx KQxx Jxx. Obviously 6 of anything isn't hopeless, but you'd rather not be there.

In the end, I just blasted 6N. This worked well when partner had Jxx Qxx Kxx AQxx.
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#19 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2011-December-22, 11:30

gird your loins and try to get a favorable lead - 6 NOW
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#20 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-December-22, 16:10

Interesting thread thanks for posting.

As a nonexpert I always thought at MP one should not bid slams without solid reasons that it should be almost cold or at least the odds are heavily in your favor.

I wonder just how good should the odds be to bid slams at MP? How do we calculate that on this deal?

On this one people are blasting or girding their loins and in some sense hoping.

In any event they were right, slam makes.
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